As mentioned in the prior post, Sunset Glow leads all fillies in the Filly Trail thanks to her win in the Del Mar Debutante, the first race on the trail at Graded status, offering more points. She has 250 points, followed by 6 others with 100 each.
In the Derby Trail, 6 horses are at 100 points each. Gotta Get Paid, 2nd in the Evangeline Downs Star joins 5 outright winners in the 6-way tie.
1 SAVE ROCK AND ROLL won maiden debut here on 8/2, 87 Brisnet, fastest on this track of the field. Trevor McCarthy & Joseph Orseno have 2 wins and 3 placings in 8 starts together the last 60 days, for a 5.93 ROI. Was wide in the stretch run but otherwise a good trip in debut. Considering she’s on rail here, like her inner post previous, thinking she’ll like the post. ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 8/5. Contender, maybe overlay.
2 PERPETUAL NOVENA won maiden debut here in June, then was 2nd in the Colleen earlier in the month. Paco Lopez has a 29% win rate, and Ed Plesa Jr. is saddling 20% wins. Track bias in her favor, the only sprinter from an inside post in the field. Sprinters at 6 furlongs are winning 44% during the meet, along with 15% wins generally from the first 3 posts. ML odds: 5/2. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
4 COMFORTER with 2 runs at Delaware, improved while graduating in last start with a 9 length win, and an 89 Brisnet score. Concerned about a bounce here. ML odds: 9/2. My odds: 10-1. Contender at a price.
7 HEAVENLY PERFECT won debut narrowly here in August, 79 Brisnet. Linda Gaudet has trained 3 2YOs this year, with 2 wins and placing in all 3, for return of 3.67. ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
8 COCO’S WILDCAT ships from Gulfstream Park, winning both maiden debut and the 75k Cassidy, nearly wiring the field in both. On layoff for this race as with previous. I’ve rated him the speed of the field (under 22 seconds first quarter). 3 works at Monmouth as well. ML odds: 3/1. My odds: 8/5. Contender, chalky.
My top 4:
1 1 Save Rock And Roll
In a race with a ton of speed, I’m giving the nod to the lone closer in Save Rock and Roll. Essentially this looks like a 2-horse race, not much value involved.
Next is the mile, 100k Sapling for 2YO colts. One horse of note here is Tapitsphere, who already has EDT points, finishing 4th in the Mountaineer Juvenile last time out.
1 WILD ZAMBEZI won 2nd maiden race 3 weeks back at the mile distance. Big score of 88 Brisnet for that one, best for distance and track of the field. Had the cleanest trip coming in as well. Only stalking horse of the field, benefiting firmly from track bias. Stalking horses in mile races are 40% winners, and rail horses are 20%. ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 8/5. Favorite, contender, maybe overlay.
4 CHASE LANE won debut here earlier in the month with 77 Brisnet. Best AWD numbers of the field (Distorted Humor/Tejareb, by the mightly Sadler’s Wells). ML odds: 6/1. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
5 POSSE DREAMIN graduated in his 3rd try, here last month. 1st or 2nd in 3 lifetime. Forged lifetime best of 78 in that race. 3 local works since that July race. ML odds: 10/1. My odds: 5/2. Contender, and overlay.
My top 4:
1 1 Wild Zambezi
3 7 Souper Colossal
Every horse here has some ability to win.
1 CONDO COMMANDO ran a huge debut, winning by 12 on August 3 here, 93 Brisnet. That number is best on track of this field. With his sprinting ability, I’ve named him the speed of the field. Track bias firmly in his favor, too. At 7 furlongs, sprinters are 31% winners, and best post is the rail, at 21%. ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 2-1. Contender and favorite.
3 LADY ZUZU 3rd in debut here on 8/8, 83 Brisnet. Best AWD numbers in field (Dynaformer/Indy Pick, by AP Indy). ML odds: 15/1. My odds: 20-1. Best to avoid.
6 WINTER DAWN won her debut, also at 83k maiden level, 83 Brisnet. ML odds: 8/1. My odds: Above 20-1. Avoid.
8 RYABINKA ships from Gulfstream, 3 good maiden runs, and then a 7th in the Cassidy. She has the one win of today’s field in ‘off’ conditions, and there is precip in the area. Trainer Dorochenko has 1 win and 6 placings this year in Graded stakes, for modest return of 2.80. ML odds: 30-1. My odds: 16-1. Dark horse, but an overlay, especially if we have less than a fast track by the time the race is run.
My top 4:
1 1 Condo Commando
3 5 Darling Sky
Once again, not much value to play with here, and speed should sustain.
EDT fans, take note of 2 horses in particular who have placed in prior EDT races: Stratagem finished 2nd in the Gold Rush Futurity at Arapahoe Park, good for 50 points. Winner of that race was Passed Due, nosing out his new rival for 100 points. Both horses duel here again.
2 STRATAGEM was reclaimed by Gary Barrow after maiden debut win, then reclaimed by Cole Jackson after narrow win in the Wyoming Thoroughbred Futurity. Then re-reclaimed by Barrow after being nosed out by the aforementioned Passed Due in the Gold Rush. Scored a 74 in the Gold Rush with good stalking trip. ML odds: 5/1. My odds: 10-1. Outsider.
3 Z SMOKING GUN broke maiden in 3rd try, looked good in late closing effort. Scored lifetime best of 69 2 races back, tho trailed off to 59 in the win. I have to believe he’s better than his last this time around. ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 5-1. Contender, possible overlay.
4 DIRT MONSTER makes his debut in this stakes race. Last 4 works have been at Albuquerque, 2 of the last 3 were bullets. Ry Eikleberry is 2 of 5 during the meet. Justin Evans has 26% wins. ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 9/2. Contender, overlay.
7 TROPIC VISION yet to break maiden status, with 3 straight 2nd place finishes, all in the 60-70 Brisnet range. Inside post may be helpful but no evidence to suggest he breaks further here. ML odds: 10-1. My odds: Well above 20-1. No chance.
8 YOU’VE BEEN DUPED may prove to be the best speed here. Won a 45k stakes race 2 races back with a 69 Brisnet, fell back to 48 with a 6th place finish in a 5k stakes effort after. So I’m believing he will bounce upward from this. Coming off of 6 week layoff, noting he had won off of a 10 week layoff prior. ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 6/1. Contender, overlay.
9 ROUSANNE was 3rd in the Debutante at Churchill last time out then went on layoff and was claimed. Having won her maiden debut, contending would not be a surprise, but he lacks some evidence of doing so. ML odds: 4/1. My odds: Well above 20-1. Stay away.
10 SKIM THE RAIL was 2nd in debut, then won last out by 2.5 lengths, pushing to a new top of 70. The 70 score is the best performance from this field on the track. ML odds: 8/1. My odds: Well above 20-1. No chance.
1 5 Passed Due
Passed Due I think will be the first real star out of the EDT with a 2nd win. This may prove to be a good betting race as I don’t see it as one horse dominating.