2014 HR Derby analysis

 

Being a fan of this sport, I am obligated to give some attention to the All-Star Festivities, including the Futures Game and the Home Run Derby. With the introduction of interleague play as a constant, it actually cheapens the World Series and devalues the true worth of the leagues as we know them. We may as well do as with other sports leagues outside the Americas and have a promotion/relegation process…best teams stay up, cellar-dwellers in AAA. Why can’t we do this already? 
The All-Star Game should be like a fantasy team come to life, with the game’s best utilizing all their tools in every situation . And, yes, every single team should have representation along with having every starter and reserve see action. I’ll still watch, but will wonder why the Game 1 prize is a prize at all. 

As for the Home Run Derby, this is an event I can wrap my little brain around….taking the choice available homer hitters to tackle the barriers of the new Target Field. You have to love a game where, unlike other sports, the playing fields are all different and irregular. That’s America for you! 

Here I’ll give a capsule look at the 10 combatants and see what their experience has been at this park and how they may fare based on biorhythms:
For a primer on the stats I use, refer to 
https://idealisticstats.wordpress.com/fear-factor-baseball-stats/

JOSE BAUTISTA (Toronto) 
Target Field stats, career: 
11 HRs in 59 ABs (66 PA), .966 SLG
Using my own formula Fear Factor he ranks off the charts at 615
23.67 runs created
offensive value: 31%
Contact average: .757 
2.71 bases per hit 
Averaging 404 feet per HR,, long is 450 ft. 17 HRs total. All of them would leave Target Field. He actually hit 2 of them here, one 417, the other 375. 
Biorhythms: 
 
No real sense of power tonight, tho he might guess right in terms of timing. Average cycles at best. 

BRIAN DOZIER (Minnesota)
Fear Factor: 360
Runs created: 80.39
Offensive value:.475
Contact: .733
bases per hit: 1.64 
HR avg distance in 2014:378 ft average, long of 418, 18 HRs. total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 9. Average distance here also 378, long of 393. All HRs would just clear LF, LCF at Target. 
Cycles: 

 On a downturn in general but still plenty of power. Low marks here.

ADAM JONES (Baltimore) 
Fear Factor 412
Runs created 8.85
Offensive value .538
Contact .800
bases per hit; 1.72
HR avg distance in 2014:399 ft average, long of 439 ft., 16 HRs total. 
HR at Target in 2014: 0. All of his HRs this except for 2 would easily clear Target 
Cycles: 

Cycles are low and getting lower. No real shot. 

YOENIS CESPEDES (Oakland) 
Fear Factor: 450 
Runs created: 13.42
Offensive value: .566
Contact: .85
bases per hit 1.765
HR avg distance in 2014: 383.5 ft. average, long of 427ft. 14 HRs total 
HR at Target in 2014: 0 All but 2 HRs would easily clear Target. 
Cycles:

Average cycles but at peak physical power for this generally contact hitter for the park. 

JOSH DONALDSON (Oakland) 
Fear Factor: 305
Runs created 6.5
Offensive value .530
Contact: .636
bases per hit 1.60
HR avg distance in 2014: 394 ft, long 448 (twice!). 20 HRs total.
HRs at Target in 2014: 1, 412 ft. All but 1 HR would easily clear Target. 
Cycles 


Excellent outlook…physical and emotional lines strong and growing…tho might guess wrong on a few. 

TROY TULOWITZKI (Denver) 
Fear Factor: 598
Runs created: 2.9
Offensive value .310
Contact:.75
bases per hit: 2.66
HR avg distance in 2014: 398, long of 447. 21 HRs total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 0 All but 1 HR would easily clear the fences
Cycles: 


Average cycles overall, not much power but his psyche is well-intact. 

GIANCARLO STANTON (Miami) 
Fear Factor: 300
Runs created: 1.12
Offensive value .510 
Contact: .666
bases per hit: 1.50
HR avg distance in 2014: 423 ft, long of 484. 21 HRs total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 0. All HRs would have cleared the fences. 
Cycles: 

Cycles are pretty much on the uphill climb so some power will be lacking today but generally good cycles overall, all are pointed up. 

YASIEL PUIG
Fear Factor: 238
Runs created: 5.82
Offensive value .785
Contact: .705
bases per hit: 1.126 
HR avg distance in 2014: 417, long of 452. 12 HRs total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 0 All but 1 HR would easily clear the fences 
Cycles:

 
Fair-to-middlin’ cycles. Passion is rather low. Physical cycle at nadir. With low marks overall in these stats, and no experience at Target, don’t expect much.

TODD FRAZIER (Cincinnati) 
Fear Factor: 0
Runs created: 0
Offensive value 0
Contact:. 0
bases per hit: 0 
HR avg distance in 2014: 398ft, long of 446. 19 HRs total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 0 All but 3 HRs hit in 2014 would easily clear the fences 
Cycles: 


Physical cycle at peak, the rest of the cycles are very weak. With no experience at Target, can’t give him high scores 

JUSTIN MORNEAU (Denver) 
Fear Factor: 340
Runs created: 116.32
Offensive value .513
Contact: .728
bases per hit: 1.56 
HR avg distance in 2014: 402ft , long of 428. 13 HRs total. 
HRs at Target in 2014: 0
All HRs would leave Target Field.
Cycles:

 
 
Here’s how I rank the top 10:
1: Bautista
2: Tulowitzki
3: Dozier
4: Cespedes
5: Donaldson
6: Stanton
7: Jones
8: Morneau
9: Puig
10: Frazier

 Stats sourced from ESPN Home Run Tracker and the venerable www.baseball-reference.com 

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