Cotto vs. Martinez analysis, prediction

 Huge boxing matchup tonight, this among other big sporting events during the day (French Open, Belmont Stakes). Here in this post I’m focusing on just the boxing: Sergio Gabriel Martinez vs Miguel Cotto, 12 rounds, middleweights, for Martinez’s WBC title.

Martinez rides a 7 fight streak. His last loss was his first fight against Paul Williams in 2009. 51-2-2, 28 KO wins, 1 KO loss. Only 7 of his 12-round fights have gone to decision. In his 10 KO wins at 12 rounds, 4 each have come early or late in fights, 2 in the middle rounds. Last KO win was vs Serhiy Dzinziruk in 2011. The green belt is up for grabs after Martinez had made one successful defense and after Marco Antonio Rubio won the interim title 2 months ago. He enters as The Ring magazine’s #7 pound for pound fighter, and their recognized champion of the class. 

Cotto: 38-4-0, 31 KO wins and 2 KO losses. is ranked by as the best light middleweight out of Puerto Rico, and #4 in the world. (Ring magazine says #3). First MSG arena appearance. Mixed record as of late, going 6-4 in his last 10. Indeed, that accounts for all 4 lifetime losses. He’s fighting the most seasoned opponent for him since Pacquiao in 2009. This is his first shot at the green belt, and his 9th appearance at MSG. In 17 wins by KO in 12-round fights, 3 have come early, 8 in the middle, 6 late.
Now we look at the cycles:

Not a good look for ‘Maravilla’ as he finds this to be a brief triple low. Will be a challenging fight for him, likely overemotional, maybe sullen at times. His power is below average, not much feeling put into the punches, and they won’t connect nearly as often as they should. His drive is experiencing a somewhat low but extended valley, not a peak.


Not so great cycles either but not a triple low either. Weakening physical scale, but he’s not easily brought down, showing a willingness to contest 12 rounds, and he’s gaining some mental strength alongsides. Overall not a great outlook. Might have to rely on his mental game to compete, but his pure athletic ability and focus are at quite a low.
Tough fight to pick, neither fighter with a huge advantage. I’m siding with the bias against the low cycles and will give this one to Cotto, by unanimous decision but it will be scored rather close. 

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