2014 Baseball Hall Of Fame ballot analysis

Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum ballots have been delivered to the BBWAA members (read: long-time sportswriters, many of whom have never played the game), and now the countdown to the inevitable question begins again. Who will get inducted next year?
I have slightly expanded my reach of variables, tho still including stats from the venerable website www.baseball-reference.com The 10 variables I use to evaluate all players are these: Black Ink, Grey Ink, HOF Standards, HOF Monitor, JAWS, JAWSpos, WAR, WAR7 (7 year peak score), most similarity scores by career stats, most similarity scores per age. Descriptions for these are in their website’s glossary; no need to repeat here.
The players with the most top 10 ranks are the ones I would vote for. If I have to break a tie, I’ll compare the players involved on a head-to-head basis.
I considered my own formula, the combo of Fear Factor and the Bill James stat % of Offensive Value (and its pitcher equivalent, which is my creation), but will leave this aside for now.
The attached spreadsheet reveals the research on the 36 players on the ballot.
I only counted the top 10 in each category. Here are the benchmarks that were created for each variable based on the ranks.
Black Ink: 100 to 23. Any player scoring under 23 were out of the top 10. Frank Thomas is out at 21. In at 23 is Don Mattingly.
Grey Ink: 336 to 157. In at 157 is Bagwell. Out at 138 is Sammy Sosa.
HOF Monitor: 336 to 171 (Schilling). McGwire is 170 and out.
HOF Standard: 76 to 54 (Mussina). Out at 52: Sosa, Glavine.
WAR: 162.5 to 71.5 (Palmeiro). Out at 70.3 is Trammell.
WAR7: 72.8 to 44.3(Glavine) Out at 43.7 is Sosa.
JAWS: 117.7 to 57.5(Trammell) Out at 55.9 is Edgar Martinez.
JAWSpos: 1 to 11. 11 players in this stat counted here. In at 11 are Edgar Martinez, Trammell, Palmeiro. Out at 14 are Biggio and Lee Smith.
Similarity score by career stats: 9 to 4. 11 players qualified. In at 4 are Raines, Mussina, Glavine. Out with 3 are Larry Walker, McGriff, Frank Thomas, Kent, Luis Gonzalez and Leon Durham.
Similarity by age ranged from 14 to 4 between 9 players and left the cutoff there. In at 4 seasons are Lee Smith and Frank Thomas. Out with 3 are Biggio, Walker, Glavine, Durham.

My vote would go to these 10
Bonds
Maddux

Frank Thomas
Bagwell
Larry Walker
Glavine
Palmeiro
Schilling
Mussina.

First four out: Piazza, Raines, Trammell, Sosa.

In all, 21 of the 36 players received some top 10 consideration, and only 4 of the first timers at that.
I also looked at the players up for the early election via the Veterans Committee. I chose 7 players from the list and compared their numbers to this year’s standard ballot. Only Tommy John and Ted Simmons had any impact for comparison Joe Torre, who likely will be inducted as a manager anyway, got one top 10 entry, as did Dave Parker. Overall, none of those players deserve entry, but surely the executives and other figures will.

What I really want to study, beyond numbers, is see the actual ballots of actual writers and guess how they might vote next. That may be a Part 2 to this post.

Here’s the full spreadsheet

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