Two boxing matches analyzed via stats/biorhythms

Two big fights taking place tonight at the Atlantic City, NJ’s Boardwalk Hall. The main event is good but www.boxrec.com says the immediate undercard is even better.
BoxRec has no available info re referees or judges.

Here’s that undercard fight:
Peter Quillen v Gabriel Rosado, middleweights, going 12 rounds for Quillen’s WBO middleweight title.
Billed as “Kid Chocolate”, Quillen is the world #3 middleweight, and best in the US. A stellar 29-0-0 record, 21 by KO.
Has fought the great majority of his fights in NYC, and this is his 2nd in NJ, first time in AC.
This fight, his 2nd title defense, is the 3rd fight of his career going 12 rounds, coming out of a 7th round TKO and 12-round decision in the last two, preceding a run of 5 KOs

Difficult cycles at best for Quillen, as he’s in a triple low. He’s been gaining overall strength since Wednesday tho, but a true uphill battle here.

Gabriel Rosado comes in with a 21-6-0 record, 13 by KOs. He is the world #14 middleweight, and US #4. Last two fights were a no contest (opponent with win removed via banned diuretic), and a TKO loss in the 7th of 12. Is 3-2-0 with 3 KOs in all fights going 12 rounds. The Philly born and bred boxer is 5-0 with 3 KOs in all NJ fights. Record of 1-2, plus the no contest bout going against undefeated opponents.

Gabriel is in generally good form for boxing. Only issue is that he’s on a mental critical day and might be on autopilot when it comes to making decisions A bit sloppy with his power punches, but he will land his share.

I can’t see this fight in any other result than a KO for Rosado, probably mid-fight (rounds 5 through 8), handing Quillen his first loss.

***

Bernard Hopkins vs Karo Murat, light heavyweights, 12 rounds, for Hopkins’ IBF light heavyweight title.
“The Executioner” is 53-6-2, 32 by KOs. He’s the #1 light heavyweight in the world. He’s making his first defense of this title, which is his 8th lifetime belt. Has fought at 12 round for the majority of his career. 3-1, 1 KO (Kelly Pavlik) at Boardwalk Hall. Never KOd in his career 2-1-1 and a no contest in his last 5 fights, all vs. fighters with either 0 or 1 loss (including 2 rematches). Last KO win was vs De La Hoya in 2004.


Mixed bag of cycles. Strength is fairly weak but his heart is very strong. General athletic ability is at a minor low but he will still have some motivation to continue the fight. He should also be able to land a few more punches than usual tonight despite his weakness.
Karo Murat is 25-1-1, 15 by KO. The Iraqian native fights out of Germany. 3-1-1 in his last 5 fights, This will be his 11th fight scheduled for 12 rounds, carrying a record of 9-1-1, 4 KOs (3 coming in late rounds). This is his first fight outside of Europe.

Polarizing cycles for Karo, as he’s rather weak himself, and will miss more punches than normal. His heart will be strong as well as his ability to be roused by the public. His athletic ability and focus are at a low, rather deeper than Hopkins’ is.

In some respects this should be a decent, engaging fight. I see Hopkins figuring out Murak by the middle rounds and scoring a majority decision tho a late TKO can’t be ruled out given Murak’s condition right now.

The most complete hitters in MLB for 2013, viewed through sabermetrics

And we’re back.
To briefly recap the essay I published on WordPress, I aimed to determine who really is the best hitter, one who incorporates the elements of power and contact along with a hitter’s natural orientation. My research bears out that hitters generally don’t change their stripes when it comes to facing pitchers. Yes, ballparks, team chemistry and managers will have their impact, but I find that info a bit difficult to quantity. Not to say it’s impossible; there are such stats re ballpark influences. But for sake of the original formulas I published, along with the dusting off of some of Bill James’s ideas, we’ll keep this rather simple.
In those essays, I provided both historical and 2012 results of the Fear Factor and Offensive Value stats for players and teams.
For this update, I included all batters with at least 100 PA. I highlighted the top 2 players per team that ranked highest in both FF and OV%. For FF, whoever scores highest had first consideration. For OV%, whoever was closest to the magic .50 mark was best. With some teams it was pretty difficult to split hairs in ranks.

In reintroducing the stats: Fear Factor combines one original formula, a Contact Average (measuring times a batter makes fair contact per plate appearance) and the inverse properties of Bill James’ Isolated Power, essentially what should be called Bases Per Hit. The higher this total, the greater amount of execution a hitter has at the plate.

Offensive Value % is a measure of a hitter’s orientation and mindset. Is he a singles hitter or does he focus on power? Or is he rather balanced? Such a balance is evident when that hitter is using anywhere from 45 to 55%. Anything below suggests sheer power, while a sacrificial lamb is at work when the number is above. This number involves hits, AB, and the basic Runs Created formula.
I was not able to capture the RC number by teams, so this last stat is blank for the time being.

Putting this together, a hitter’s mindset, plus execution of same, should result in a complete hitter. As I’ve demonstrated in the historical sample, Vladimir Guerrero may be the very best example of this.

Here is the full list of players for 2013:

In Sheet 2 of the document I took the two representative players per team highlighted in bold, and further compared the numbers of the top 10 in both FF and OV%. Interestingly, just one player surfaced that fit both categories: Lonnie Chisenhall, who did quite well for Cleveland this year, especially in the ALDS. Is Lonnie the zen hitter for 2013?
Part-timer Seth Smith for Oakland is ranked as the most balanced hitter in the game, tho you’ll see that he is not in boldface; the combined formulas reveal him to be a generally singles hitter.
Edwin Encarnacion leads in the Fear Factor category for 2013, though is strictly dead-red, as evidenced by his OV%.
Regardless of these examples, those 60 players of the 458 I sampled I feel are truly the most complete in the game, via these formulas.
To further summarize the meaning and usage of the formulas, I classify hitters into 6 categories: Higher FF, with either higher (power), central (balanced) or lower (contact) OV%, and lower FF with the same areas. The hitters with the higher FF and central OV% are the players that are the focus of the essay, those same 60 players you’ll see on Sheet 2.
Next up is the 2013 pitcher evaluation, which I hope to complete before the World Series begins. From that point, I’d like to be able to figure which type of hitter can defeat which type of pitcher.
This is about where I left off when completing the 2012 essays, and I’d like to see if it’s a matter of similarity or difference that gives one side the advantage over the other.

Bradley/Marquez in stats/biorhythms

Forgot to sync my glipho account    and did not get to republish this post here. Very typically i post on glipho, then copy/paste here.  Not sure what happened last night.  Nevertheless, here’s how it went down:

**
The Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas hosts 8 fights tonights, 7 of which have star rankings at www.boxrec.com and the major fight of the night is, of course, Bradley/Marquez. I’ll give you a capsule view of this fight plus the fight immediately before.

Orlando Salido v Orlando Cruz, 12 rounds, featherweights, for the vacant WBO featherweight title.

Siri is 2-1-2 with 1 no contest in his fights in the city of Vegas. He’s the #2 world ranked featherweight. Overall 39-12-2, 1 no contest, 27 wins by KO. 6-4 in 12-round fights, with the slight majority of KOs coming in middle rounds.
Salido first won the belt defeating Juan Manuel Lopez in 2011, defended it successfully twice. Lopez later reclaimed but lost this belt on the scales before losing it in the ring vs Mikey Garcia. This is Salido’s 2nd opportunity to reclaim the title.
Referee: 3rd fight Kenny Bayless appeared as the 3rd man in the ring with Salido present. Salido scored TKOs in both contests.
Cruz has never fought before tonight’s judges or with Bayless in the ring.
11-16/80
From www.facade.com
I like these cycles to a degree. Salido will not feel very comfy physically..he might bleed more..he might throw in a low blow. Whatever he does, granted will feel out of his control, effortless to be sure. Meanwhile he will guess very well at the punches coming to him, and will have to rely a bit more on tactics to win out.
Orlando Cruz is the #40 featherweight in the world, #3 in Puerto Rico. 20-2-1, 10 KO wins, 2 KO losses. 7th fight at 12 rounds, going 5-1, 3 KOs in the previous.Had gone undefeated in career until regularly going 12 rounds. Vegas is not too kind to El Olimpico either, being the site of his first pro defeat, tho he did win a four-rounder there in his 4th pro fight.
From www.facade.com
Similar cycles for Cruz to Salido, but Cruz has been weak for a while. He might make good decisions on punches but those will fail in comparison to Salido’s unbridled strength.

Late-fight KO for Salido (rounds 9-12)

Headline fight

Timothy Bradley vs Juan Manuel Marquez, 12 rounds, welterweights, for Bradley’s WBO welterweight title.
The last 5 fights for this belt have all gone to the judge’s scorecards.
First your challenger:

Marquez lost to Manny Pacquiao in his first attempt to win this title in 2011 (and a controversial finish that was
Marquez is 55-6-1, 40 KOs, never being knocked out himself. He is the world’s top ranked welterweight.
16-4-1 in all Vegas fights.
He has fought routinely at 12 rounds, with 10 of the 12 fights winning via knockout anywhere from rounds 5 through 12.

He has lost the last 3 times he attempted to put a blemish on someone’s undefeated record (Mayweather Jr, 2009, Chris John, 2006 and Freddie Norwood in 1999)
Referee Robert Byrd presided over one prior fight involving Marquez winning via TKO, 7 of 12. Re Bradley, Byrd was witness to the win over Pacquiao in 2012
Judges:
Robert Hoyle scored draw with Marquez’s fight via Pacquiao in 2011, then TKO win by Marquez over Michael Katsidis,
Patricia Morse Jarman was a judge in 6 of Marquez’s fights prior: decision win over Juan Diaz in 2010, TKO win over Joel Casamayor in 2008 (at the time, was even on points), decision win over Marco Antonion Barrera in 2007, TKO win over Hector Javier Marquez in 2002, win via retirement over Daniel Jimenez in 2000, then TKO win over Remigio Daniel Molina in 1999.
Glenn Feldman was judge in one match with Marquez, late TKO win over Casamayor in 2008.
The 3 judges have never scored a fight with Bradley.

Here’s how Dinamita looks tonight:
From www.facade.com
Mental game is at its peak, but losing a bit of confidence in his physical ability despite it only recenting plateauing. He will remain focused in the fight no matter what. Only real issue is that he seems pretty average of his overall drive.

Timothy Bradley is undefeated in 30 fights, 12 wins by KOs. He’s the #2 welterweight in the world, #1 in the US. He has never rought a more experienced boxer ouside of Pacquiao before tonight. One decision, one KO win in his two prior fights in Las Vegas. One KO finish in his last 12 fights, and that one was in 12 rounds.

Here are ‘Desert Storm’ ‘s cycles :

From www.facade.com
Cycles are rather mixed, but his athletic ability is very strong, he’s very focused. Has not felt good about his surroundings lately but that area is improving.

Both fighter’s cycles are very even in pattern and in shape. The one difference I see is the emotional cycle. For Bradley it’s negative but rising, while Marquez’s own cycles are negative and lowering further.

This will be a split decision in favor of Bradley.