No time for Friday Night Fight viewing but I did work on 6 of the races in tonight’s portion of Emerald Downs handicapping challenge. Cutting to the chase, I’m find that the most important variables in the arsenal include:
Results from trip handicapping…seeing which horses have had some trouble, got out of trouble, and still finished like a contender. Or those with ideal trips that had some traffic trouble.
Track bias: matching the patterns from the meet to the run styles and post positions of the applicable horses
Horses who have won multiple races from a general selection of posts (near the rail, near the outside, or somewhere in middle), or otherwise had a better average pace in those areas
Horses bounding back in pace after having an ‘off’ race
I have other sets of data involving jockeys and trainers, plus the application of pace and recent form and lifetime stats. Combining it all, I feel more confident about making intelligent selections.
Tonight at Emerald, I chose these:
Race 2: 7 MOJAVE SECRET: Trainer has 2 wins in 3 races, 3rd also in money, when claiming a horse, then dropping to lower claim price first race used (2.13 ROI). Juan Guitterez/Blaine Wright jockey/trainer combo has best win % in field. Had an off race of 64 last time out, and should bounce back here. Had a very good trip in last race, yielding race in stretch very late.
Race 3: 7 MERRY SHERRY has longest price of my 6 picks. Recovering in pace from last 2 races. Has exploding/forging pace angles as well. Best pace numbers per post, also comes out of a great trip,rallying at finish.
Race 4: 7 BIG PAYDAY should bounce back after a 67 race, that from an 81 lifetime best 2 races ago. Had tough trip but finished competitively in large field.
Race 5: 5 SILVER SNEAKERS has done with a middle post, raced against his closing type last time and was competitive really should have saved more ground prior.
Race 6: 5 DUCOTI is my best. Has outstanding edges in most categories including pedigree, best jockey/trainer, 1st race off reclaim, fastest rated horse and good works.
Race 7: 3 JORDAN’S JEM is best in class, good pace numbers for the track, also has Juan Guitterez/Wenzel connection, both over 20% wins. Wenzel great with horses dropping 2 classes.
Sometime overnight I’ll have trip analysis and ratings of my contenders for the Travers Stakes and Pacific Classic.