Today I have worked on 6 races for Emerald, and 3 at Monmouth. Amazingly, I’m still in the latter. Remington returns on Wednesday.
I also realized that, in the craziness, I failed to deliver analysis of the Travers, but I do have analysis of today’s Pacific Classic, the major race of the day at Del Mar, so here it is, horse for horse:
ENDORSEMENT comes out of a game inside effort at Del Mar on 7/24, 2nd to Indy Point in a 90k restricted stakes race. Considering his inside post, where he’s won his last 2 races, this will make him a contender, albeit an outside one. This is one horse that should be considered in exotics, as I feel he can contend at a price.
FARRAAJ makes his US debut as well for Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum, with all of his racing done in Europe, mostly in the UK. Stats are lacking per Brisnet, but I do see this angle: Trainer Roger Varlan has shipped foreigners to the US, 1 win, 3 in the money, for an even return of 2.00. What’s more, this horse has also won right off layoff previously. Another outside contender who could surprise.
YOU KNOW I KNOW comes out ofa $62.5k optional claiming race here, putting up a 95 score with a win. One of three horses who will benefit from the track bias. Through today, absolute closers in routes on this surface are winning 41%. Also, horses in posts 4 through 7 are winning 15% of the time. His stats are great but the competition is real tough today.
RICHARD’S KID at age 8 comes out of a G3 win on this track. Benefits from the track bias as per You Know I Know. Very tough to pick here, as no other stats back up his performance.
KETTLE CORN is out of a win here in the San Diego H., (G2), sporting a 104 Brisnet. From that race, he shared winning speed on this track out of this field with Dullahan. Recovering in pace: After his last layoff, he was 2nd with a 100 score in a G2 race at Betfair Hollywood, then 4th with a 97 in another G2 race there, followed up with a breakthrough and lifetime 106, finishing 2nd in the Hollywood Gold Cup. The 106 score was just past his prior best, which occured in last year’s Gold Cup. This is the 3rd of 3 horses who can close firmly and also runs in a middle post, and can benefit from the track bias. Realistically his chances are quite good here.
BYRAMA leads with the top average winning distance from his pedigree among the field (Byron-Aymara, out of Darshaan, all GB bred). Won the Vanity H. at Betfair Hollywood (G1) 3 races back, forging a lifetime best, and exploded past his 3YO best, suggesting further improvement. Best jockey/trainer win% of the field (Gary Stevens, 29%, Simon Callaghan, 21%). Liked his 3rd place finish last race in the CL Hirsch earlier in August; survived a tough trip and really should have won that one.
DELEGATION has the fastest Brisnet of the field, a lifetime best 112, from his impressive win last time out up at Woodbine, July 1. The 112 is also best winning score on all-weather tracks of the field, and the best for 10 furlongs. Best Brisnet to his stalking style in the field. Also a top contender.
GAME ON DUDE, a mainstay on the West Coast and consistently putting up high numbers, has also defeated top company in two Hollywood Gold Cups, the Santa Anita Handicap and the Awesome Again. Has won before from a layoff. Great work tab, 6 works in all at Del Mar, the last one 3rd best of 54. Won one of his Gold Cup and the Santa Anita from an outside post.
JERANIMO won the Eddie Read, the Shoemaker, and the San Gabriel at the G1 level. Trainer Michael Pender has won 29% of races, plus 56% in the money in all graded stakes entered in 2013 for a 3.99 ROI return.
10-9-7-1-8 Delegation, Dullahan, Kettle Corn, Endorsement.