MLB futures (6/20/13 update)

The personal magic word for me is ‘future’. Somehow my fortunes in gambling, handicapping to be precise, re horses, have generally been the best when it comes to future wagers. 3 years straight I picked the Kentucky Derby winner and this year I even scored the exacta. Perhaps I can apply my own luck to other sports. So I turn to baseball, as I know this sport more than others.

Inspired by a notable website, that regularly lists percentages for playoff/championship wins for all different sports, I turned to a Las Vegas website, to find out the comparative odds. The results of what I present come from both sites. My goal is to find the underlay, the teams that are of higher value but who have truly the best chance to win the World Series. Overlays are the opposite, those who are taking a lot of money and therefore will not pay off nearly as much.

What I’ll do on Thursdays is post an update of my top 8 underlays based on the comparative results of both websites.
For purposes of my lists, an underlay would be indicative if Vegas’s odds are of much greater value than the % indicated by SBS. If SBS’s percentages are higher than the odds in Vegas, that’s an overlay and is best to avoid.
I’m not likely to actually wager on these results. Even if I did, I’d probably wait until about mid-August.

For these results I’m using Sports Club Stats’ weighted method and just the WS % chances.

Converting % to odds is very easy. Just divide 100 by the % total, then subtract 1. The result is the odds to $1.

Cardinals: SBS: 2.89-1. Vegas: 7-1 Underlay
Braves: 6.69-1. Vegas: 7-1
Red Sox: 5.84-1. Vegas: 10-1 Underlay
Reds: 14.62-1 Vegas: 10-1 Overlay
Tigers: 5.49-1 Vegas: 6-1
Athletics: 10.36-1 Vegas: 8-1
Every other team per Vegas is at least 36-1 or worse to win the WS. Among those with better odds right now, if you dare select them:
Padres: 40-1 (SBS says 500-1)
Indians, Phillies, Royals, Rockies: 50-1
White Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, Twins: 100-1
Brewers, Cubs: 200-1
Mets: 300-1
Astros, Marlins: 1000-1

I would invest considerably in both the Cardinals and Red Sox if I had to choose today.


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