ATP tennis finals analysis via biorhythms

Starting very shortly after I type this  the finals of the ATP’s BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy tournament will be decided, taking place in Bucharest, Romania. Here’s how the finalists look:

Guillermo Garcia Lopez (#87, Spain)

Rather uphill climb for Guillermo as his cycles are negative but he’s starting to feel strength again in all levels.   

Lukas Rosol (#48, Czech Republic)

Mixed bag of cycles. His heart will be in the game but his strokes will be very weak and errant. Could easily be overpowered. 

Should be a weak final, lots of errors, but spirited at the same. 3 set win for the Czech.

First head-to-head matchup. Comparing year-to-date stats, Rosol is outpointing Garcia-Lopez in most stat categories. But Garcia-Lopez does have an edge with his return game, leading in 2nd serve return points % won (52 to 46), and break points conversion % (46 to 36). So it will be interesting to see how these two do while Rosol is on serve.

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The Barcelona Open also winds up today, scheduled about 2 hours after the one in Romania (or is it the same time, given time zones?).
Rafael Nadal, #5 vs Spanish countryman Nicholas Almagro, #12.  Rafa is 9-0 head-to-head, including 22 of 24 sets. First time meeting in a final.  What area of Almagro’s game can help provide victory?  
Looking at each match, Almagro tends to do better scoring from his ace/double fault numbers than Rafa. Also often will be very competent in both saving and converting break points. 
Average match time: 132, set time 50 minutes. 

Here are Nadal’s cycles: 

Decent cycles. Physically at the top of his game and the passion is there to survive 3 sets. But he’s prone to his share of errors and will make more mistakes than usual. 

Almagro: 

Comes out of mini-high, very weak today, athletic ability rather mediocre and failing. He’s playing with a good deal of heart and will be pretty accurate.

Looks like Nadal in straight sets for another title. 

Stats: http://www.atpworldtour.com 

NASCAR Sprint Cup @ Richmond International Speedway analysis & predic

16 active drivers in this series have won, with Kyle Busch having 4 wins,
with Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Terry Labonte, Dale Jr 3 wins. Ken
Schrader, Bobby Labonte and Michael Waltrip have raced here over 40 times
each without a win.

Top 10s: Mark Martin 30 for 54, Terry Labonte 28 of 55, Jeff Gordon 25 of
40, Tony Stewart 19 of 28. David Gillaland has run here 13 times without
cracking the top 10, and these drivers 12 times: Paul Menard, Travis Kvapil,
David Stremme.

Laps turned without win: The aforementioned drivers without a win here all
lead in this category, Terry Labonte with 19628 laps. Beyond the bottom 3,
Elliott Sadler is at 8922 and counting.

Laps led without win: Carl Edwards 442, Bobby Labonte 161, David Reutimann
104.

Average finish position: Kyle Busch 5.4, Clint Bowyer 9.6, Stewart 10.4,
Ryan Newman 11.6, Harvick 11.7 (Denny Hamlin who is injured and out, is 8.1)

Running at finish: Mark Martin is truly the ironman here, with 51 of 54
races running to completion. Ken Schrader 44 of 47, Terry Labonte 44 of 55,
and Bobby Labonte 37 of 40, Jeff Burton 36 of 37. Best perfect record
belongs to Kevin Harvick (24).

Lead lap finish: Martin again, with 35 of 54, Jeff Gordon 27 of 40, Jeff
Burton 23 of 37, Tony Stewart 20 of 28, and Kyle Busch 15 of 16.

Predicted top 10: 
1 Kenseth
2 Juan Pablo Montoya
3 Clint Bowyer
4 Kyle Busch
5 Marcos Ambrose
6 Vickers
7 Kahne
8 Jeff Gordon
9 Joey Logano
10 Jamie MacMurray

Nationwide Series @ Richmond Intertional Speedway analysis

Both the NASCAR and Nationwide Series are set at Richmond
International Raceway. NASCAR takes to the pavement on Saturday. Nationwide
gets going tonight. They have not done qualifying yet today. Once I find out
what the starting grid is like, I’ll share this info on the air and give you
my top 10.
Here are the pertinent stats from the Nationwide series (stats from http://www.racing-reference.info)

 
8 different drivers have won here from this series. Harvick leads with 6
wins, out of 23. Kyle Bush 4 of 15, Dale Jr 3 of 5., and Kurt Busch 1 of 2.
MIke Wallace is 0 for 28,. Matt Kenseth and Elliot Sadler 0 for 19.

Top 10s: Harvick 18 of 23, Kenseth 16 of 19, Kyle Busch 12 of 15. Tony
Stewart 0-for 11, Eric McClure 0 for 11.

Laps without win: Mike Wallace 6051, Kenseth 4760, Sadler 4643.

Laps led without win: Kasey Kahne 289, Kenseth 265, Mike Bliss 62.

Average finish position, 3 race minimum: Kenseth 6.4, Kyle Busch, 6.7,
Harvick 7.0, Dale Jr. 7.4, Brian Vickers 12.4 (Kurt Busch 2.0 through 2
races)

Running at finish: Harvick has finished unscathed in all 23 races, Kenseth
likewise through 19, and Elliott Sadler is 18 of 19.

Lead lap at finish: Harvick is 19 of 23, Kenseth 17 of 19, and Kyle Bush
perfect through 15.

My top 10 are: 

1 Kyle Busch
2 Brian Vickers
3 Harvick
4 Mike Wallace
5 Brian Keselowski
6 Austin Dillon
7 Sam Hornish Jr.
8 Justin Allgaier
9 Elliott Sadler
10 Reed Sorenson

Saturday’s boxing action in biorhythms

No Friday Night Fights this week but 3 bouts with title implications are ahead on Saturday.

At the Barclays Center in Brooklyn:
Peter Quillin vs. Fernando Guerrero, 12 rounds, for Quillin’s WBO middleweight title;
First a look at Quillin’s cycles 6-22-83 28-0-0, 20 KOs)

Quillin with physical critical day and pointing upward. Will not have a good handle on his ability, but this may be in his favor. His punches will land and will seem effortless. Brainpower is very strong and he’ll connect more than his share of punches. 


Guerrero: 25-1-0 19 KOs


Mixed cycles…heart is strong, but brain isn’t. Also on physical critical day but waning. He’ll seem out of sorts with his own punches and throw more wasted effort into them. He’s no quitter tho…he’s willing to see this fight through, but athletically he’s at a low.
Quillen by decision, but would not be suprised at a late KO
*****

Danny Garcia vs. Zab Judah, 12 rounds, for Garcia’s WBC/WBA junior welterweight title

Garcia 
(25-0-0, 16 KOs)


Not looking good for Garcia. Very weak athletically. The heart might be there but even that’s fading somewhat. 


Judah
(42-7-0, 29 KOs

Similar situation to Garcia but his cycles are on the rise from the depths…and having more of an uphill battle. He will gain more confidence as the fight goes on. Still, he is also rather weak overall.
Not a fun fight to watch. Giving this to Judah by decision.
*******

at Club Atletico Velez Sarsfield, Buenos Aries 

Sergio Martinez vs. Martin Murray, 12 rounds, for Martinez’s lineal/WBC middleweight title

Martinez

(50-2-2, 28 KOs)


Murray 
(25-0-1, 11 KO)

Entering a mini-low, into a mental critical phase and weakening physicality, this is not ideal for Murray.

Early-round KO for Martinez.

Idealistic Sport show #4 4/26/13

To hear this program you can access the FeedPlayer linked at www.idealisticstats.wordpress.com

That player gives you options to stream, download and share the content.
.mp3: https://idealisticstats.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/idsport042613.mp3
On this edition, I talked analysis of my top 3 players in this week’s PGA Tour event taking place at TPC Louisiana. I promised to update viewers of my blog an update for the 2 ATP tennis events going on this weekend, one in Romania, one in Spain. I’ll provide biorythmic look at the pairs of finalists in those.

For auto racing, I gave a preview via stats of the drivers racing at Richmond International Speedway, both for the Nationwide Series and for NASCAR. Since qualifying was just ongoing with Nationwide, and likewise hadn’t begun for the latter race, I couldn’t provide a top 10, but I will have that soon on the blog itself.

Finally re horses I gave predictions for the weekend’s big Kentucky Derby Trial, as well as an early preview of my top 6 for the Kentucky Derby and top 3 for the Kentucky Oaks.

Music used in this program:

Late Cambrian “Ryan Gosling” – Social Seaon EP www.latecambrian.com
Changing Modes “House Of Cards” – In Flight CD www.changingmodes.com
Blue Sour “Days Of Old” – S.U.A.D. CD www.bluesour.com
The Pinz “Anti-Complacency League” – Anti-Complacency League CD www.thepinz.com
Fellaheen “Karma’s Dog” – Death & Frolic CD www.fellaheen.com
Running time 61 minutes
Dan Herman
twitter: @radiocblue

PGA Tour Zurich Classic analysis/predictions

This post focuses on this week’s golf tournament at TPC Louisiana in the town of Avondale. Just before I post my top 3, here’s an outline of what other events I’ll be tracking this weekend on the blog and the next Idealistic Sport podcast:

  • Early preview of the Kentucky Derby
  • Friday Night Fights
  • Auto racing: NASCAR/Nationwide Seriers at Richmond International
  • 2 pairs of finals in the ATP and WTA  tennis events by Sunday

Golfers just getting their 1st rounds under way in Louisiana. Here are my top 3 golfers who are entered in the Zurich Classic (I would have 4 normally but Brandt Snedeker is not in attendance):
GRAHAM DELAET:  10th in driving distance, 3rd in greens in regulation, 3rd total driving, 5th in GIR from fairway bunker, 2nd in ball striking, 4th in longest drives, 8th in Par 5 performances, 3rd in GIR% 200+ yards from hole, 5th 125-150 out, 5th in GIR% 100+ out. Radar stats: Top 10 in club head speed, ball speed, distance to apex, apex height, hang time.    Big drives, very accurate with long irons, great technical game, best on Par 5s

Cycles: 
Polarizing, mixed cycles here. Poor ability to make good decisions, tho will not have an issue with strength, probably a high score these 4 days. Also, critical days on Friday and Saturday will hamper his scoring. Might not survive Friday.

 

JUSTIN ROSE: 2nd in scoring average, 1st in sand saves, 8th in total driving, 9th all-around, 2nd in Par 5 birdie-or-better, 2nd in scoring average before cut, 2nd in scrambling, 1st in avg going for green shot distance (236 yards), 1st in GIR % under 75 yards, 3rd  in GIR% under 100 yards. 6th in approaches 120-125 yards, 4th 50-75, 6th 175-200, 1st 50-125.  4th in proximity from sand to hole, 8th in scrambling from rough. Radar stats: 9th in launch angle and 1st in these: carry distance, carry effiency, total distance effiency and total driving effiency. 
Cycles: 
 Pushing uphill, as it were, a growing physicality, should make the cut but unsure about the weekend as he meets a critical day on Saturday, with lingering effect on Sunday. Shots could feel effortless and maybe on the mark, but not consistently. Sunday could see him on triple high if he survives Saturday. 

 CAMERON TRINGALE: 10th in GIR%, 8th in round 3 scoring, 10th in ball striking, 10th in scrambling, 9th in GIR% other than fairway.

Cycles are not very impressive, passion seems to be waning this weekend.  Coming out of triple low, he might have good decision making but execution another story. 

Justin Rose probably the best of these 3, but all are good for usage in your fantasy lineup 

***
Reminding you I’m still taking submissions for music for the Idealistic Sport podcast. Anything uptempo or oriented to sport highly preferred. http://www.bigcontact.com/idealisticsport for the latest edition. 

Stats: http://www.pgatour.com  

Bahrain Grand Prix; NASCAR; ATP Tennis predictions & analysis 4/21/13

The Bahrain International Circuit, amidst protests, will indeed host the 9th Bahrain Grand Prix for Formula 1 drivers and cars. Here’s the tale of the tape:

Wins: Fernando Alonso is 3 of 8, Felipe Massa 2 of 8, Jenson Button 1 of 8, and Sebastian Vettel, 3-year reigning F1 titleist, 1 of 4.
Top 5s: Kimi Raikkonen is 5 of 7, Alonso 4 of 8.
Laps: Mark Webber has turned 431 laps here without a win, Nico Rosberg doing 334, and Raikkonen 349.

Led laps: Interestingly, 2 drivers have led 4 laps without winning a race, Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton. The 4 drivers with more laps led have all won.

Top 5 average finish position with at least 3 races here:
Alonso: 4.9
Raikkonen: 5.6
Hamilton: 6.0
Massa: 6.9
Vettel: 7.2
Raikkonen gains 5.5 positions per race here.
Alonso & Massa have run all 8 races to the finish. Only Alonso has finished all 8 on the lead lap.

Now for my top 5:
Nico Rosberg (pole)
Alonso
Paul Di Resta
Vettel
Webber
************

NASCAR at Kansas Speedway update:
Here’s my prediction of the top 10
Carl Edwards
Matt Kenseth
Greg Biffle
Mark Martin
Kyle Busch
Clint Bowyer
Kevin Harvick
Marcos Ambrose
Tony Stewart
Kurt Busch

***
Sunday morning at Monte Carlo is the finals of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters.   Nadal/Djokovic. Sound familiar? They’ve locked horns 33 times, with Nadal leading 19 to 14 and 13-2 on the clay surface.
Seeking holes in Rafa’s games, I looked to the last few meetings. Nadal has won the last 3 matches.  Djokovic seems to have an edge in break points saved.  Djokovic won the prior 7 matches.  In the losses, Nadal outpointed routinely on aces, 1st serve, and break points saved and converted.

Here’s biorhythms for Djokovic:

Pretty decent cycles out of a mini low toward a mini high tho is relying on heart and brain rather than brawn here. 

And here’s Nadal:


Terrible cycles for him Sunday as he’s in the midst of a triple low.

Djokovic in 3 sets.