Robert Guerrero v. Andre Berto

WBC welterweight title on the line!
Here’s the comparative charts, starting with Guerrero (3/27/83)

Ideal looking chart as all three cycles near positive, with emotions on the upswing. As a boxer you want to see your physical cycle positive and continuing to rise. Athletic ability very strong. 

Berto (9/7/83):

 Berto also approaching triple positive and his physical cycle also on the rise yet yet still in the negative uphill phase. He will land his share of punches but might have less power in them than his opponent. 

RESULT: Guerrero by decision  

Abner Mares vs Anselmo Moreno via biorhythms

Here’s Abner’s chart:

Looks like he’s firmly on the upswing, tho tonight he might even know his own strength.

Anselmo:

Moreno better with decision making on punches to throw but they will not land hard, or land much at all. Just coming out of triple low and getting better.

Abner Mares in KO somewhere past the 8th round.

2012 Breeders Cup day 2 selections

Firstly the recap of yesterday. If this looks typed in a rush, it is. I gave myself little time to prep for 12 races for today. I did take a bit of a loss but I also scored 3 wins and 2 exactas across the 10 races.
Race 4 was the biggest, with a win and exacta that nearly got overturned via DQ.
Race 5 was a win
Race 8 was another win
Race 9 was an exacta score.

Here’s how I will be wager. I WILL be wagering actual $ this time:

*Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
*Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
*If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.
Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds.
Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.

Trend ranks are a bit different. The only real change is that I’m removing horses in recovery form from the ‘plus’ category, and inserting horses who had no works since last race (tho there are just 4 such horses in the 12 races). On the minus side, I’m adding the horses who are of ‘exploding’ form type, and removing the top turf specialists from this list.
On yesterday’s card, only one variable shone; that was the horses who benefited from track bias. 7 of 12 horses in exacta positions actually finished in the top 2. No other variable broke 50%.

Race 1: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLY SPRINT PREVIEW
4-1-5-3
Plus: 4,1
Minus: 1,3,5
#4: UNUSUAL WAY has lone track bias edge: Sprinters going 7 furlongs on dirt won 2 of 5 such races this meet, and also the 1 scheduled this week. Increased speed from 57 to 90 in last race, so bounce risk.

Race 2: BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT PREVIEW
6-12-4-10
plus: 1,4,10,12
minus: 6
Yes, I’m actually downgrading #6, ONE FIRM CAT only because it’s rated in one of the lower-performing variables, that being ‘forging’ a lifetime best speed figure in the last 60 days. Outside of that, he comes off the best turf performance on this track of this field, breaking his maiden just 3 weeks ago, scoring an 83. Might bounce a bit, as he increased from 75 in prior race.
For extra value, consider #1: SCHERER MAGIC has some track bias value. Horses with early-pace types, running 6.5 furlongs on turf have won 32% of the races during the meet, and 3 of 5 this week.

Race 3: Damascus Stakes
4,2, (then 5 or 7, whoever has worse odds will be my 4th).
plus: 2,4,5,7
minus: 2,3,5
Will include #7 in the mix.
I actually have #4 and #2 even, but give it to #4 for having track bias edge and no real downside.
#4:MILE HIGH MAGIC ‘s best on this track is a 101, breaking maiden on 3/3. He and #5 Private Zone are the lone speed (see race 1 for track bias). Both of these come out of losing speed duel. Mile High Magic lost by a length, being outkicked in last race, 6.5 furlongs on 9/9. Best jockey/trainer combo in Rafael Bejarano (22% wins) and Bob Baffert (31%)

Race 4 BC JUVENILE TURF
4-8-9 4th will be between 3,6,14. I’ll take the worst odds of these three.
Plus: 3,6,8,14
minus: 7,8,10,11,12,13
Whoever drops out of my 4th selection choices (3,6,14) will likely be included as extra bets for wins and exactas to either each other or to public favorite. These horses each are moving from sprint to route, the highest performing variable within the 9 racecards I’ve studied. Meanwhile… #4 GERVINHO is 2 of 2 lifetime. Comes out of an 88 score from 10/8, best track performance of the field. Best jockey/trainer combo in Bejarano, and Carla Gaines (26%)

Race 5: BC FILLY/MARE SPRINT
2-10-7-1 
Plus: 2
Minus: 2,5 
Not much confidence in this race, really. #2 BELLE OF THE HALL comes off lifetime best, a 103 run at Belmont last month. She is the fastest horse of this field, and also slightly moved past her prior best mark, a 98 scored during Belmont’s spring meet.

Race 6: BC DIRT MILE
7-3-5-8
Plus: 2 through 8
Minus: 2,3 
Will bring in #4 and #6 and #8 for value
Six horses in the field have track bias edge: Horses #2, 6, 8 are pure sprinters. Sprinters going a mile on the dirt this meet have won 58% of the races, along with going 2 of 4 this week. Further, horses in post positions 4 through 7 are winning 22% during the meet at this surface’s distance, and 23% this week. Along with the track bias, EMCEE, #7, moves from sprint to route, a big plus in my book here. #4, JOHN SCOTT and #6 SHACKLEFORD also get the track bias, but I have even more love for Shackleford: He led much of the G2 Kelso on 9/29 at Belmont, lost in the stretch and finished 2nd. Moved from 91 to 102 in that race, so a bounce risk.

Race 7: BC TURF SPRINT
9-3 or 6-1 
Plus: 1,5,6,8,9,11
Minus: 4,5,7,10,14
Will bring in #1, #8 and #11 for value, mainly on track bias basis.
#9 BRIDGETOWN is one of 5 horses with track bias edge (see race 2 info). Fastest pace of the field (last 3 2nd-call numbers are all over 100). Also has recovery angle: After 9 month layoff, scored 100 in 5f Turf Sprint at Churchill back on 5/5, then ran races of 98, 96, and then circled back fully with a 101 in the Troy Stakes at Saratoga 3 months ago. Pushed forward in the Woodward Stakes last time out 3 weeks ago with a 103.

Race 8: BC JUVENILE
4-1-9-8
Plus: 4,8,9
Minus: 2,3 and 5 through 9
#4 SHANGHAI BOBBY is fastest of these colts and geldings (last 3 2nd call numbers are 96, 98, 108). Despite a very small sample, he has best jockey/trainer combo in Rosie Napravnik (1 of 4 races won this meet) and Todd Pletcher (1 of 2)

Race 9: BC TURF
11-1-8-9
Plus: 1,8,9
Minus: 1,5,11 
#11 SLIM SHADEY has best track performance here among winners here, a 100 scored in a 2nd place finish earlier this year. Increased speed from 92 to 98 in last race on 9/30. Best jockey/trainer combo in Garrett Gomez (22% wins), and Simon Callaghan (29%). ROI angle: Gomez and Callaghan have worked one other race together, winning that race, for return of 6.40 (this is probably referencing the horse’s last race).
#9: DULLAHAN for value. Fastest pace of the field (last 3 stretch numbers are 117, 93, 82).

Race 10: BC SPRINT
13-8-7-11 
plus: 4 through 7 and 13
minus: 1,7,9,13,14 
Bringing in 4,5,6 for value. Each of these horses have track bias edge. In 6 furlong races on the dirt this meet, posts 4 through 7 are winning 16%, along with going 1 for 4 this week.
#13: Poseidon’s Warrior has the fastest pace numbers (last 3 2nd call numbers all over 105). Finished 3rd in the Vosburgh last time out after nearly wiring the field. ROI angle: Trainer Robert Reid has saddled 20 horses at the Graded stakes level. He has 15% wins, 40% in money, for return of 8.54.

Race 11: BC MILE:
2-3-7-4 
plus: 2
minus: 2,3,4,6 
#2 WISE DAN (love the name) is just about a lock here. 4 for 5 lifetime on turf, with highest score a lifetime best 110, run 3 races back at Saratoga. Easily the fastest of this field (overall pace numbers in last 3 range from 103 to 110). ROI angle: Trainer Charles Lopresti has had 22 shipping horses this year, with 27% wins and 45% in money, for an even return of 2.00.

Race 12: BC CLASSIC
5-1-2-9
plus: 1,2
minus: 1,2,7 
#5 GAME ON DUDE is ideal horse for course, 5-for-5 lifetime here with top score of 109 achieved in last start 5 weeks ago. Increased in speed from 103 in prior start, so slight bounce risk. Has Bejarano/Baffert connection (see race 3)

2012 Breeders Cup day 1 selections

(Edited 105pm ET to include latest changes)
And here we are. A year after a rather successful run of handicapping, at least from the major-race standpoint. I aim to follow up this up with even more winnings for the big Breeders Cup two-day event.

I studied the last 8 racecards, including yesterday’s races. Top 4 winning trends among my variables include these:
*Horses stretching from sprint to route.
*Horse identified as having fastest Equibase numbers in last 3 races, per run style.
*Horses identified as recovering in form. I calculate this by studying how the horse’s overall pace varied since last layoff.
*Horses receiving positive value from track bias during the meet and the week, divided by both post position and/or run style.
Worst 4 trends:
*Horses with identifiable ROI angle via jockey or trainer
*Horses under reclaim
*Horses who forged lifetime best figure in last 60 days ages 2 or 3. Older, 90 days.
*Horse identified as having fastest winning or overall best turf speed in field.

I will NOT be updating you all on twitter for the 2 day event but I will be editing these blog posts when scratches/changes occur. This will likely be finalized at about noon Eastern time.

Here’s how I will be wager. I WILL be wagering actual $ this time:

*Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
*Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
*If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds.
Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.
Race 1: 5-4-11-13
Plus: 4,5
Minus: 2,9,11,12
#5 GOD OF WAR has 9 lifetime starts, beginning in Brazil, then adapting to West Coast racing. Just one race at Santa Anita, his last race, which was one mile on this turf. He won with a 94 Equibase number, top score on this track’s surface of the field. Further he has fastest overall pace numbers (2nd call numbers in last 3: 111,90, 103) He might bounce, as he increased from score of 85 in race prior to last. 20-1 morning line, could be value here.

Race 2: 1-10-4-3
Plus: 1,8,9,10
Minus: 2,4,3,6.
#1 AMY’S OUTBURST is an early-pace type will benefit from track bias: Horses of this style running 6.5 furlongs have won 38% of races this meet, and 1 of 2 this week. Only horse in field to have entered speed duel in last race and lost, actually losing 3rd late in a 6 furlong effort after leading through much of the race. Possible bounce: she moved from 77 to 89 overall pace in last race, also setting lifetime best number. That 89 score represents a recovery number as well. After 8 month layoff and trainer change to Kathy Walsh, she ran an 80, then the 77, then 89.
I’m also giving horses #8 and #9 opportunity for score via plus/minus. #8, MY BRITE CAROLINE, and #9, MAGICAL BRAND, are 2 of the other 3 horses who also have the early-pace style which will work to their favor here.

Race 3: 10-2-1-6 
Plus: 1,2,3
Minus: 1,4,11
#10 SOLAR ROCKET is 3 of 6 lifetime on Santa Anita’s main track, with best winning score in the field here, a 103 back on 3/24. In last race at 6.5 here on 10/19 he led much of the race, lost a real battle to finish ahead, held 3rd place. Moved from 65 to 92 in that race. No works since that 10/19 race.

I will also use #3 for extra value. PRIDE OF SILVER can be helped by track bias: Closer-type horses have won 2 of the 4 races this meet run at 7 furlongs on dirt.
Race 4: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE SPRINT.
3-1-4-6
Plus: 3
Minus: 1,3,6
Not a very wagerable race the way it looks, especially with my top choice, #3 being morning line favorite. MERIT MAN, has won both lifetime starts. Shares best winning speed on track, scoring 98 in last race. Fastest pace numbers in field (2nd call numbers are 101, 100). ROI angle: Jockey Patrick Valuenzuela teamed up with trainer Robert Hess Jr on 3 races in last 60 days, winning 2 (this is likely based on Merit Man’s 2 wins), for ROI of 14.73.

Race 5: BREEDERS CUP MARATHON
1-14-3-10
Plus: 1,4,5,6,7,10,11
Minus: 1,5,7,8,10,11,14
ATIGUN has fastest pace numbers (last 3 stretch call numbers for this closer: 99, 91, 114). Moved from 101 to 108 overall place in last race, forging new lifetime best. 
I’m willing to bring #4,6 and #7 for extra value. All 3 can benefit from track bias. Looking at all horses running dirt route races this meet, 16% winners come from posts 4 through 7, along with 19% during the week. With 3 runners beyond 3 or 4 more to factor in, this could get complicated to wager.

Race 6: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF. 16 entered, not all running of course.
13-1-8-2 
Plus: 1,3,10,12, 13, 15„8
Minus:6,5,8,9, 4, 11, 13
#13: FLASHY WAYS is 2 for 2 lifetime. Fastest winning track speed of these, a 91 in last race.Fastest overall pace, too (overall pace numbers are 89 and 91). ROI angles: Jockey Joe Talamo has worked 1 race with Richard Baltas in last 60 days, scoring that 1 win for 14.40 return. Also: Baltas is 2-for-2 in saddling 2YO horses this year for return of 18.40. This jockey/trainer combo is best in the field (Talamo 22% wins, Baltas 2-for-2).
I’d bring in as many as 6 horses that have extra value. #1 KITTENS POINT is the one reliable horse to benefit fom track bias. On turf miles during the meet, horses set on the rail have won 14% of races, and 20% this week. Horses #3, 10, 12, 15, 15 and 16 are all stretching from route to sprint.

Race 7 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES:
Plus: 8-1. 3,6,7 I like equally
Plus: 1,8
Minus: 1,3,5,6,7
#8 KAUAI KATIE is undefeated in 3 career starts. Lost after 35 starts but maintian smoke status. Benefits from track bias: In 15 races going 8.5 furlongs on dirt, horses from the #8 post and beyond have won 21% during the meet, and won all 3 such races this week. Stretches from sprint to route here. Also with fastest pace numbers of the field (last 3 2nd call numbers are 99, 99, 105). Best jockey/trainer win % combo in Rosie Napravnik (1 of 4), and Todd Pletcher (1 of 2)
Race 8: BREEDERS CUP FILLY & MARE TURF:
9-1-then 2 or 4 (I’ll take whoever has worse odds at post time)
Plus: All except 10
Minus: 1,8,9,10, 11.
#9: MARKETING MIX is identified with fastest winning speed on this track (99 in last race, 9/29), and fastest on turf overall (105 at Woodbine, 7/28). Overall best pace numbers of the field (pace numbers 99, 102, 105). Best jockey/trainer combo in field: Garrett Gomez 22 % wins, Thomas Proctor 25% wins).
3,6,7,12 should also be brought in for extra value. I’d probably keep it simple and go for straight win bets since there are more than a few to factor in still. Track bias will help each of these (3,6,12 have ideal run style, while 7 has advantageous post position)

Race 9 BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC

8-5-2-1 
Plus: 1,2,5,6,
Minus: 1,3,7,8 
#8: LOVE AND PRIDE has fastest track speed winning the Zenyatta Stakes here on 9/29 with a score of 106. Set new lifetime mark in prior race to that, a 107 on 8/26 at Saratoga, winning the Personal Ensign. Still under influence of that race.

Bringing #6 for extra value to use, tho likely not much more. ROYAL DELTA will get track bias help….she is one of 4 early-pace type horses in the field. 1 other turf race was run at 9 furlongs during the meet, won by an early-pace type.
Race 10: Twilight Derby:
9-6-4-8
Plus: 6
Minus: 1-8-5-9
#9 HUNTSVILLE has fastest numbers at this track. Lost pace duel in optional claimer with a 94 last time out, 3 weeks ago. Was reclaimed by Barry Abrams in August, has run 5 races since, winning 2 and finishing 2nd last time out.