Meanwhile for today, it’s Belmont one last time.
Here are the top 4 trends that have paid off in the 1st or 2nd position over the last 5 race days, Saturday through Friday:
Horses out of a race dueling with eventual winner and losing.
Horses benefiting from track bias, either by run style, or post position, measured by combo of meet and week totals.
Fastest horse by last 3 overall Equibase numbers
Horses who forge new lifetime top in last 60 days from 2YO or 3YO, 90 days if older.
Horses currently under reclaim
Horses in ‘exploding’ form; slight gain in last year’s best lifetime race to set new top.
Horses with great ROI angles.
Horses in recovery form; horses dropping in pace after layoff then circling back to that number and increasing, anytime in the last 90 days.
Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds. Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.
Outside of plus/minus, here’s how I’d ideally wager:
Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.
Here we go:
EL CORRIENTE comes out of turf sprint, running competitively until the stretch, faded to 4th and finally gave way in stretch. Stretches from sprint to route here. Increased speed from 68 to 74 in this race, so slight bounce possible. No works since that 10/14 race.
race 2: 6-2/1-7
plus: 6 +, 2,3,5
Bring in #3 for confidence: EQUIVOCATION comes out of a speed duel in last race, back on 2/29 at Aqueduct, going 1 mile 70 yards. Ran 2nd by head much of the race, was 2nd by 3 in stretch, and only lost serious ground at that point.
CATALONIA is lone benefactor of track bias as lone early speed: Sprinters running 6 furlongs on dirt are winning 41% races in the meet, and 33% this week. Moved from 80 to 89 in last race, forging lifetime best and carries the ‘exploding’ pace variable (prior lifetime best was at age 2, an 85.
race 4: Banner Gala Stakes
3-6-2 and 7 or 1 (whoever has worse odds at post time)
Definitely use the 1 here regardless of odds.
#3, ZULANITE has best track speed among winners here, a 93 scored in the Grade 2 Sands Point during the spring meet. Moved from 76 to 88 in last race. Her 93, 3 races back in the Riskaverse at Saratoga, is her lifetime best, and still could approach that number. No works since last race on 10/18.
#1 SEA ISLAND moved from 68 to 86 in an ungraded stakes last time out. Track bias angle: Horses with the rail in 9 furlong races on the inner turf this meet have won 2 of 6 races.
#7 is DRINKSONTHEHOUSE. This early-pace filly has fastest overall pace of the field. Forged lifetime best number of 89 2 races back, 9/9 here. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in John R Velazquez (23 % winners) and Michael Trombetta (18%).
Bring in 8 and 11 as extra value horses. #8 WHITE SANGRIA and #11 DESERT BLISS also both forged lifetime best numbers in recent races. Desert Bliss paired up 85s in her last 2 races here in the autumn meet, and White Sangria broken maiden last time out with an 82 4 weeks ago.
Use #5 with top selections, regardless of odds.
#9 is PRECIOUS METAL who has best Belmont speed among winners on the turf (95 back on 5/11), along with having fastest winning turf speed (same race). Best jockey/trainer combo in John R. Velazquez along with David Jacobson (33%). I like the top 4 very strongly, not using the other plus horses. #5, CHIEF CARLSON forged lifetime win last time out, a 96 at Monmouth on 10/6. One of 6 horses (all plus horses) with early-pace style that will be helped by track bias. Horses of this style running 6 furlongs on inner turf are winning 47% (8 wins of 17) during the meet, and 1 of 3 this week.
#4: GOING GOING GONE shares top Equibase speed figure at Belmont, a 78 that was run 2 races back on 9/15. This closer has fastest pace numbers of the field. That 78 score represents his lifetime best and should improve after having thrown an ‘off’ 72 last time out on 9/26.
Race 8: Turnback The Alarm Stakes.
Definitely use #6 for extra value.
#3 is rather polarizing in my selections but giving benefit of doubt. GO UNBRIDLED, dead closer, has fastest pace numbers in the field. Forged lifetime best of 98 2 races back at Saratoga, then ran 93 4 weeks ago here. Carries the ‘exploding’ form factor, improving on prior lifetime best of 96 set last year. ROI angle: Junior Alvarado has worked with trainer Allen Jerkens for 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2, for return of 3.87. Also: Jerkens has saddled 40 horses in Graded events this year, for 15% wins, 35% in money, for return of 2.52.
#6: ARENA ELVIRA should benefit from track bias: late-pace horses running 8.5 furlongs on dirt are winning 35% during the meet, and 1 of 4 this week.
Race 9: Bold Ruler Handicap:
plus: 10, 6
#6, PRIVATE TALE moved from 92 to 99 last time out, forging lifetime best at Laurel on 9/27. Has the recovery angle going: Raced back in February with a 96 after an 18 month layoff, then ran 6 races below that with 5 in the 90s, then broke through with the 99.
Best of these outside my top 4 is #11.
#5: CHRISTOPHER’S JOY is early-pace type with fastest pace numbers of this field. Also best jockey/trainer combo in Junior Alvarado, and Steve Asmussen (24%) ROI angle: This combo have one prior race together in the last 60 days, which they did win for return of 15.80.One of 8 early-pace types benefiting from track bias (see race 6).
#11 SPEECHLESS is another early-pace horse here. Moved from 71 to 79 lifetime best in last race, 3 weeks ago.