Belmont Park 10/27/12 selections/analysis

Looking forward to 10 more races at Belmont for the year, plus a gentle look toward Santa Anita in prep for next weekend’s Breeders Cup. I will be covering those races and providing some advance analysis for you then. I’m not one to pore over numbers while trends are still being established, so I will privately monitor the Santa Anita races for today (Saturday), Sunday, and Thursday to see what trends are worth playing for and against.

Meanwhile for today, it’s Belmont one last time.

Here are the top 4 trends that have paid off in the 1st or 2nd position over the last 5 race days, Saturday through Friday:
Horses out of a race dueling with eventual winner and losing.
Horses benefiting from track bias, either by run style, or post position, measured by combo of meet and week totals.
Fastest horse by last 3 overall Equibase numbers
Horses who forge new lifetime top in last 60 days from 2YO or 3YO, 90 days if older.

Worst trends:
Horses currently under reclaim
Horses in ‘exploding’ form; slight gain in last year’s best lifetime race to set new top.
Horses with great ROI angles.
Horses in recovery form; horses dropping in pace after layoff then circling back to that number and increasing, anytime in the last 90 days.

Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds. Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.

Outside of plus/minus, here’s how I’d ideally wager:

Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Here we go:

Race 1
3-2-11-7

plus: 1,2 (++) ,4,7 (+),10 (+),12 (+),3,5,11
minus: 7,2,1,13
EL CORRIENTE comes out of turf sprint, running competitively until the stretch, faded to 4th and finally gave way in stretch. Stretches from sprint to route here. Increased speed from 68 to 74 in this race, so slight bounce possible. No works since that 10/14 race.
Bring in #10 and #12 as outside contender to mix up with these! #10, RALLY POINT and #12 STEPHEN’S REVENGE, both can benefit from track bias: Closer-type horses running 8.5 furlongs on turf this meet are 37% winners, and 3 of 6 this week. Both horses also bounce risk,having increased speed between last 2 races, also both forging new lifetime tops in the process.

race 2: 6-2/1-7
plus: 6 +, 2,3,5
minus: 5,7

BRIGAND has best track speed of this field, a 102 winner from his last race on 10/12, optional claimer of 25k. This sprinter has fastest pace numbers of the field. Forged lifetime best with that 102 also.
Bring in #3 for confidence: EQUIVOCATION comes out of a speed duel in last race, back on 2/29 at Aqueduct, going 1 mile 70 yards. Ran 2nd by head much of the race, was 2nd by 3 in stretch, and only lost serious ground at that point.

race 3:

3-9-6-13 
plus: 3,9,6,13
minus: 3,9,13 
CATALONIA is lone benefactor of track bias as lone early speed: Sprinters running 6 furlongs on dirt are winning 41% races in the meet, and 33% this week. Moved from 80 to 89 in last race, forging lifetime best and carries the ‘exploding’ pace variable (prior lifetime best was at age 2, an 85.

race 4: Banner Gala Stakes
3-6-2 and 7 or 1 (whoever has worse odds at post time)

plus: 1,6,3
minus: none
Definitely use the 1 here regardless of odds.
#3, ZULANITE has best track speed among winners here, a 93 scored in the Grade 2 Sands Point during the spring meet. Moved from 76 to 88 in last race. Her 93, 3 races back in the Riskaverse at Saratoga, is her lifetime best, and still could approach that number. No works since last race on 10/18.
#1 SEA ISLAND moved from 68 to 86 in an ungraded stakes last time out. Track bias angle: Horses with the rail in 9 furlong races on the inner turf this meet have won 2 of 6 races.
Race 5:
7-5-10-2 
plus: 2,7,8,10,11
minus: 2 
#7 is DRINKSONTHEHOUSE. This early-pace filly has fastest overall pace of the field. Forged lifetime best number of 89 2 races back, 9/9 here. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in John R Velazquez (23 % winners) and Michael Trombetta (18%).
Bring in 8 and 11 as extra value horses. #8 WHITE SANGRIA and #11 DESERT BLISS also both forged lifetime best numbers in recent races. Desert Bliss paired up 85s in her last 2 races here in the autumn meet, and White Sangria broken maiden last time out with an 82 4 weeks ago.

race 6:
9-4-3-5
plus: 3,4,5,6,8,11
minus: 3,9,10 
Use #5 with top selections, regardless of odds.
#9 is PRECIOUS METAL who has best Belmont speed among winners on the turf (95 back on 5/11), along with having fastest winning turf speed (same race). Best jockey/trainer combo in John R. Velazquez along with David Jacobson (33%). I like the top 4 very strongly, not using the other plus horses. #5, CHIEF CARLSON forged lifetime win last time out, a 96 at Monmouth on 10/6. One of 6 horses (all plus horses) with early-pace style that will be helped by track bias. Horses of this style running 6 furlongs on inner turf are winning 47% (8 wins of 17) during the meet, and 1 of 3 this week.

race 7: 4-12-10-11 
plus: 4,10,12
minus: 5,9,10 
#4: GOING GOING GONE shares top Equibase speed figure at Belmont, a 78 that was run 2 races back on 9/15. This closer has fastest pace numbers of the field. That 78 score represents his lifetime best and should improve after having thrown an ‘off’ 72 last time out on 9/26.

Race 8: Turnback The Alarm Stakes.
3-8-2-4 
plus: 2,6,3,8

minus: 3,1 
Definitely use #6 for extra value.
#3 is rather polarizing in my selections but giving benefit of doubt. GO UNBRIDLED, dead closer, has fastest pace numbers in the field. Forged lifetime best of 98 2 races back at Saratoga, then ran 93 4 weeks ago here. Carries the ‘exploding’ form factor, improving on prior lifetime best of 96 set last year. ROI angle: Junior Alvarado has worked with trainer Allen Jerkens for 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2, for return of 3.87. Also: Jerkens has saddled 40 horses in Graded events this year, for 15% wins, 35% in money, for return of 2.52.
#6: ARENA ELVIRA should benefit from track bias: late-pace horses running 8.5 furlongs on dirt are winning 35% during the meet, and 1 of 4 this week.

Race 9: Bold Ruler Handicap:
6-10-4-8
plus: 10, 6
minus: 1,5,9 
#6, PRIVATE TALE moved from 92 to 99 last time out, forging lifetime best at Laurel on 9/27. Has the recovery angle going: Raced back in February with a 96 after an 18 month layoff, then ran 6 races below that with 5 in the 90s, then broke through with the 99.

race 10:
5-10-8-12 
plus: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,11,12
minus: 2,5,7,8
Best of these outside my top 4 is #11.
#5: CHRISTOPHER’S JOY is early-pace type with fastest pace numbers of this field. Also best jockey/trainer combo in Junior Alvarado, and Steve Asmussen (24%) ROI angle: This combo have one prior race together in the last 60 days, which they did win for return of 15.80.One of 8 early-pace types benefiting from track bias (see race 6).
#11 SPEECHLESS is another early-pace horse here. Moved from 71 to 79 lifetime best in last race, 3 weeks ago.
Updated analysis and more at my twitter thing: @radiocblue

Belmont Park 10/20/12 selections/analysis

New York Showcase Day at Belmont! I will cover 9 of the 10 races for you, featuring brief analysis of my top choice
The ‘plus-minus’ choices represent my level of confidence in a particular horse..The purpose of this angle is to bring in an extra contender in the event that one from my top 4 doesn’t figure in the finish.
Here are the top trends that figure on the plus side. Percentage totals are based on the week’s racing totals of what horses fit the particular variable, finishing first or second as a qualifier of that variable.
1: Win % at the current Belmont meet between jockey and trainer.
2: Absence of workouts since last race.
3:Fastest pace numbers to one’s run style of the field, based on last 3 races.
4: Best winning (or best overall) turf speed of the field.
5: (If race moved off the turf):Horses with best winning (or best overall Belmont track speed of field).

Worst trends:
Horses who are currently running under trainer who has reclaimed them.
Horses who must stretch from sprint to route race.
Horses who are exiting a losing speed duel in last race.
Horses in ‘explosive’ pace: slight peak in overall pace better than prior year’s best.

Now we’ll go race-for-race for selections.
I will update selections and plus-minus considerations here and on twitter at @radiocblue

Wager scheme goes outside of the above goes like this:
Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Race 1:

8-11-3-4 
Plus: 8, 3
Minus: 11
MISS RUBYCUBES with 2 lifetime starts, both at Finger Links, both statebred stakes for fillies is a pure sprinter. She has best pace numbers of this field (first call numbers both in the 90s). Last race was the Rachel Alexandra, which she led by a length for most of the race, but weakened late in the 6 furlong effort to 3rd. Pace gain from 53 to 69, so a possible bounce down. ROI angle: trainer Jeremiah Englehart has saddled 70 2YO horses this year, with 16% wins, 49% in the money, for mild return of +2.03. Englehart has 11% wins in the autumn meet, combined with jockey David Cohen’s 38% win rate, makes this the best combo in the field.
Race 2: Iriquois Stakes
3-2-6-1
Plus: 3,2,1
Minus: 3,6 
I might opt to use 1-2 and 2-1 exacta here based on my ranking, regardless of odds.
AGAVE KISS has best track speed of winners on this track, coming out of a 2nd place effort in the Valor Lady stakes here on 10/3 and scoring a 103 Equibase number. She had led much of the race, and was just caught in the final 1/16th to lose by a neck. One of two horses who will benefit from track bias. Sprinters running 7 furlongs on dirt this meet are winning 40% of the time, and 50% this week. Also with fastest overall pace (first call numbers range from 94 to 105). Possible bounce as she moved from 97 to 103 overall pace.

Race 3:

2-12-5-1
Plus: 2, 12, 5
Minus: 2,3,5,7 
PRIME DEVIL with 3 maiden starts, last one at 57k level, has best track and turf speed of the field, scoring an 84 lifetime best in last race 9/29. He ran a game effort leading much of the 8.5 furlong race but lost by 3/4 lengths. Might bounce as he gained from 77 to 84.
Race 4:
2-4-9-6 
Plus: 2,4,5
Minus: 2,3,4,6,7,9 
Building confidence in #5, ISN’TSHEWONDERFULL who has best jockey/trainer combo in Joel Rosario (16% wins) and Barclay Tagg (19%). Will certainly use between 2 and 4 for exacta and possible win.
Top choice tho is A PRETTYDIXIE. This 2YO filly with 3 starts, all at Belmont, running amongst other statebred fillies. Has best track and off-track speed of this field. A sprinter with fastest pace numbers in the field, who led a good portion of her last race over muddy going, tho was 2nd by a long distance in the stretch. ROI angle: Trainer Patrick Kelly has saddled 16 horses who were making their 2nd route appearance. Result is 13% wins, with 25% in the money, for return of +3.13.

Race 5:

4-7-2-14 
Plus: 1,4,6,7,9,14
Minus: 9,12 
Lots of contenders for sure here. Extra confidence given to these 2. #1, LAILA’S JAZZ with no works since her last race on 9/27 here. #6 GOODTOLOOK with no works since last, here on 10/7. Might use for outright win or under favorites between the plus candidates (excepting #9) Top selection is #4, WEEKEND HIDEAWAY. Best off-track performance in the field, a 101 score breaking his maiden at Saratoga. Fastest pace numbers in this field (2nd call numbers ranging from 94 to 100)
I’m skipping race 6

Race 7: Ticonderoga Stakes
6-1-9-3

Plus: 1,2,4,6,9 
Minus: 5,9,11 
Extra confidence placed upon #2 and #4. #2 is FREEDOM RINGS who shares best turf speed overall (101) with #6 GITCHEE GOOMEE #4 is DREAMING OF CARA, who has no works since last race here on 10/7. Could use as straight win bets or favorites between the other plus horses excepting #9. GITCHEE GOOMEE is a pure closer with best stretch drives of the field (last 3 stretch call numbers are 123, 106, 91). This mare also has fastest Belmont speed among winners here. She scored a 101, finishing 2nd in the Beaugay during the spring meet.

Race 8: Joseph A. Gimma Stakes

3-6-9-10
Plus: 3, 10, 12
Minus: None
#12, MATCHMADEINHEAVEN had no works since last race on 9/29. One of 5 horses who will benefit from track bias. Horses from post position 8 and beyond in races on dirt for 7 furlongs are winning 17% this meet, and 25% this week. #10, Julesco will definitely get used in exactas, maybe win bet, with 3 and 12. #3 is GEE LINZ, from 2 lifetime starts, has 2nd call numbers of 89 and 97 and is fastest of this field. Also has best trainer/jockey win % combo, Javier Castellano (23% wins), and David Jacobson (33%).

Race 9: Empire Classic
1a-2-3-4
Plus: 1a, 3,4,5
Minus: None.
#4, HALDANE, will be used with the others selected here for certain. This filly has has no works since last race on 10/5. Forged lifetime best 2 races back, a 95 earlier in the autumn meet. Put up an 84 last time, so might bounce positively this time. #5 BIGGER IS BETTOR deserves another look, also with no works since last race on 10/4. ROI angle: Jockey Wilmer Garcia has worked with trainer Rodrigo Ubillo in 14 races in the last 60 days, getting 2 wins and 6 in the money, for return of +5.41. Top choice is FIDDLERS AFLEET who forged and then paired up new lifetime score of 102 last 2 races, both statebred stakes races. Best jockey/trainer combo in field (see race 8).

Race 10:
1a-10-11-2
Plus: 1a, 9, 11
Minus: 1a, 2,6,9,11
No real confidence in these selections outside of my top selection, #1a, STRONG IMPACT. This 6YO has best track and turf speed of the field, along with having fastest pace numbers and the best jockey/trainer combo in Castellano and Bruce Brown (25% wins). Absolute lock.

Belmont Park 10/13/12 selections/analysis

As you know I look at horses who are exacta-worthy to wager on. I measure those who have scored 1st or 2nd in the most recent races in the week to determine the trends going into Saturday’s action. With that..here are the top trends that performed in the last 5 racecards at Belmont:
Track bias, measuring both run style and post position
Turf: Best winning turf speed in field
Absence of workouts before today’s race
Highest combined win % between jockey and trainer during the meet.

Worst 4:
Horses in exploding form (horses pushing past last year’s best speed rating by a few ticks in the last 60 days, 90 if 4YO+)
Distance bias: Horses moving up from sprints to routes here.
Horses in recovery: Horses with layoff who drop in speed from first race after layoff then equal or exceed the first race score (measuring horses in last 60 days, or 90 if 4YO+)
Positive ROI angles above +2.00 for jockey or trainer.

What I’m considering doing is building confidence on horses based solely on plus/minus of these particular angles. Whoever has the best scores will get bonus consideration or elimination, while still considering them in the top 4 selections.

Wager scheme goes outside of the above goes like this:
Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Watch for my selections and +/- picks here and on Twitter at @radiocblue

race 1: 1-5-4-7 LURE OF THE SOUTH has best Belmont and turf speed of this field, forging new lifetime top of 86 in last race on 9/27. Also has best score on an off track (today’s turf is rated currently as ‘good’), an 85 scored in the spring meet (that track was muddy) Moving from 80 to that 86 in last 2 races, he might bounce.
Plus-minus:
Plus: 1,5,7 (best), then 4,8,10,11,12
Minus: 8,7, then 13 (worst)
I’d concentrate on horses 1 and 5.

Race 2: 5-6-7-12 BAKIN’ WITH CINDY with best winning Belmont and turf speed. She got these back to back in the spring meet with scores of 83 and 89. One of several pure closers that can benefit from track bias. Closers going 8.5 furlongs on the turf are winning 30% during the autumn meet, and 67% this week. For an ROI angle, jockey Eddie Castro has teamed with trainer Rudy R Rodriguez for 3 races in last 60 days, winning 2, for a return of +4.07

Plus-minus:
Plus: 5,6,7,12 are best, then 1,3,8,9 
Minus: 5,7,8,12
Concentrating on 5,6,7,12, tho bullish on 6.
race 3: 1-6-4-3 MISSILE NICK has best jockey/trainer combo in Jose Ortiz (11% wins) and Thomas Bush (20%). ROI angle: Missile Nick adds blinkers. Bush has readded blinkers to horses in 7 races, winning 1, for overall return of $2.31.
Plus-minus:
Plus: 1 is best, then 2,3,4,6
Minus: 1,3
Concentrating on 1
race 4: 3-5-8-7 TERMINUS with best track speed from last race, a 92 on 9/29. Moving from an 83 in prior race to that and forging lifetime best, could bounce.
Plus: 5, 8
Minus: 6,5,8
No concentration on pick, sticking with top 4.

Race 5: 5-2b-1-1a MUDFLATS has best track speed in only lifetime start, an 82 on 9/15. He is the lone reported sprinter in the field. Sprinters running a mile on the dirt during the meet have won 55% of the races, and 75% this week.

Plus: 2b, 5
Minus: 1, 1a, 2b, 5.
No concentration on picks, sticking with top 4
race 6: 8-4-2-6 GREELEY’S LAW is a longshot but top choice for me. His best winning track speed here is 89, scored in the spring meet. In recovery mode right now: He had been on 2 month layoff before recording an 86 at Saratoga, then dropped to 76, then up to 91 on 9/1, then an 80 back at Belmont on 9/15. The necessary off race suggests a bounce back. That 91 race is his lifetime best mark. ROI angle: Jockey Edgar Prado has teamed with trainer Glenn DeSanto for 6 races in last 60 days, winning 1, for overall ROI of +16.33.
Plus: 4,2
Minus: 8
Yes, I’m cautious on the 8, so I’d roll with 4 and 2 with confidence.
Race 7: 1-6-5-3 LA CLOCHE has best winning track speed, a 99 in an ungraded stakes race during the spring meet 3 races back. Gets dual help with track bias. Closers running 8.5 furlongs on turf are winning 30% of the time during the meet, and 67% this week. Also: horses in first 3 posts are winning 13% for the meet, and 22% this week. Fastest horse in the field: last 3 late-pace numbers are 108, 97, 104. Also best jockey/trainer win % combo in Junior Alvarado (23%) and James Toner (20%)
Plus: 1 is best, then 6,2,3 
Minus: 6,3 
I’d focus on 1 and also 2, Ruthenia, who has early post and track bias edge.

Race 8: 4-2-10. That’s it. TIE DYE in 2 lifetime races has best track and turf speeds here, an 85 run on 9/9 with an outside run facing 11 other horses, yielding track, good kick home in stretch. ROI angle: Prado teamed with John Kimmel in 2 races in last 60 days, winning 1, for return of +2.80.
Plus: 4,10
Minus: 4.

Well, I do like 10, Never Touch A Star, who has best jockey/trainer combo in field, so nothing extra to add.

Race 9: Knickerbocker Stakes: 2-3-5-4 SKY BLAZER with best track speed, 1 105 scored in an allowance race during the spring meet. Track bias edge too: He will get rail trip today. Horses in 9 furlongs on turf have 40% of those races on the rail, and the only such race run this week. Also, late-pace horses of this distance and surface have won 40% of the time, and won the only such race this week. Last 3 overall pace numbers are 92, 102, 105, fastest of the field. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in Cornelio Velasquez and Barclay Tagg.
Plus: 2 over 3
Minus: 4,5

No change in my strategy.
Race 10: 8-5-12-2 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL has fastest speed on an off track, a 96 scored earlier in his career. This early-pace horse is fastest of the field, with 2nd call numbers of 91, 83, 96 in last 3 races. Might bounce going from 78 to 91 overall pace in last 2. No works since that 91 race from 9/30. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in Junior Alvarado (23%) and David Jacobson (41%)
Plus: 8 is best, then 2,3,5,6,12 
Minus: 1,6,12, then 7 (worst)
Roll with 8,5,2 as usual here, but also 3, who also did not have works since last race on 9/29.

See you on twitter for more at @radiocblue

Belmont Park 10/6/12 selections/analysis

Before this week’s, a look back at the past 5 racecards in stats at Belmont:
Saturday’s top variables were these: Best track speed of field, and best turf speed. Sunday was rife with obvious winners in these categories: Turf speed, track bias (run style and/or post), horses out of a speed duel in last race, best jockey/trainer combo. Wednesday, the track bias continued to predict exactas, as did dueling horses. Thursday, off track specialists were best, along with horses moving from sprints to routes. Friday was rather quiet, with dueling horses providing the only positive variable above a 50% hit rate. Hit rate meaning those that finish in 1st or 2nd position. Top 3 variables for the week were: Horses out of a speed duel were 15-for 30 in exacta position, an even 50%. Turf specialists were 5-for-7, 71%. Horses who were stretching from sprints to routes were 15-for-32 for the week, 46%. Worst performers: Horses recovering in form (speed drop then gain after layoff within 90 days of peak) were just 1-for-9, 11%. Similarly, horses with exploding form (new lifetime speed figure past last year’s best by small margin) were 1-for 7, 14%. Horses under reclaim of prior trainer also went 1-for-7. Overall hit rate for long-term indicators were 29.5%, short term 37%. Track and distance bias combined, a reflection of both short term horse form and the horse-for-course angle, have been the most successful angles to work in the last 5 racecards.

I’ll cover all 10 races for you today. Next week I keep the focus on Belmont as well. I’m not telling you how to wager but here’s what I would do, as I’m not actually betting today:
Exacta bets between top 3 selections. Win bets on any horses worse than 5-1. If 4th selection is worse than 9-1, place win bet, AND use top 3 selections over that selection, PLUS any horses better than 4-1, over that 4th selection.

Race 1: 5-6. Yup, just two maidens out of 7 useful. FIERCE FACE has late running speed, is fastest of those with a noted run style. REACHING OUT has the superjock Ramon Dominguez winning at 25% along with trainer Richard Dutrow at 19%.

Race 2: 10-5-6-8 WHO IS LADY has the fastest track speed of winners here in this field, a 92 scored in 2011. Also has fastest turf speed of the field. Last 3 2nd-call numbers are mid 80s to mid 90’s, fastest of this bunch. Moves from 79 to 85 in last race, maybe a bounce here. Has the recovery angle here: 2 month layoff, scoring an 82, then down to 79, then 85 in last race on 9/14. Recovering horses not doing well this week. Also was reclaimed by Michael Miceli earlier in the year; last race was first winner since with alternating good speed figures. ALYKELA has the best run on an ‘off’ track of these, a winning 84 Equibase speed figure prior to 2011 (today’s turf races are on a ‘good’ track).

Race 3: 2b-6-7-1/1a. TRANSPARENT is the lone beneficiary of track bias here; Sprinters running 6f on dirt during the meet are winning at the rate of 40%, and 42% this meet. he is also fastest pace horse of this field, with 9 first-time starters going to post. Comes out of a duel where he led much of the way, gave way to 4th in stretch in a 6f effort at Saratoga. CASINO DAY has best speed figures on an off track; his only start was a sloppy Saratoga race, with a 77 score there.

Race 4: 7-3-9-6- WINTER NOW has best winning track score here, an 88 from the spring meet, breaking maiden. Shares top winning turf speed here with 3nd choice Knock Rock. . 2nd call pace numbers for WINTER NOW are late 80’s to 90’s, fastest of these. Comes out of 8.5 furlong race leading much of the way, 2nd in stretch, faded to 10th very late. Both WINTER NOW and KNOCK ROCK excel in the top ranked variables I’ve studied this week. WINTER NOW could be a nice value horse.

Race 5: 3-4-6-9 FAIR TRADE with fastest track speed of these, an 84 from the spring meet. Lone benefactor of track bias as lone speed (see race 3). Comes out of 3rd place finish who made move to lead by head in stretch at 5.5 furlongs, lost by just 3 lengths. Had forged speed figure of 90 3 races back on 8/12, so still room to circle back to that number. No reported works since last race here on 9/21. KEYALY as pure closer has best pace numbers; stretch call numbers are averaging triple digits. Moved from 75 to 82 in last race, so maybe a bounce. Has recovery angle: was on 10 week layoff, then ran 3 times at Saratoga, with pace numbers of 82, 75, 82, forging new lifetime best. ROI angle: jockey Edgar Prado teamed up with trainer Glenn DiSanto 9 times in last 60 days, with 1 win, 3 placings in the money, for return of +10.22.
Race 6: Very competitive race between about 5 horses. I have it as 4-8-5-1. NELSON AVENUE has fastest winning turf speed, a 94 over this track on 9/8 just 2 races ago. He actually led much of this race, losing by a length in 2nd. That 94 forged a new lifetime best figure. No works since last race just 7 days ago here. ANAPHYLAXIS has distance bias at work…has to stretch from 7 furlongs to 8.5 here. No works since last race 9/23 here. ROI angle: trainer Pablo Hizo has 7 races this year on turf, with 1 win and 2 placings in the money, for return of +2.54.

Race 7: Frizette Stakes. 2-5-3-7 Two of the 3 KY bred 2YO fillies here are best. MY HAPPY FACE is one of two pure sprinters in the race, benefiting from track bias: Sprinters running a mile on dirt are winning 52% for the meet, and 40% this week. Also running a route race for first time, having gone 5f and 5.5 in only 2 starts, and my stats say this is only good news. With those 2 starts, only one first call number, a 94, is best of this field. Has the fortune of being ridden by Ramon Dominguez, plus trained by Rudy Rodriguez (26% wins) SWEET SHIRLEY MAE has fastest winning Belmont speed, a 99 winner at 5f in debut maiden race for 70k. Moves from 83 to 91 from last 2 races, so could bounce.

Race 8: Foxwood Champagne Stakes. 5-1-2 and 4 or 7 for 4th, whoever has worse odds near post time. FORTIFY is one of 5 runners who has to go from sprint to route here; he is moving from both 6.5 and 7f to run a mile here. Has Ramon Dominguez aboard, plus trainer Kieran McLaughlin (16% wins). GOLDENCENTS is lone speed here, and will benefit from track bias (see race 7). ROI angle: Jockey Kevin Krigger has combined with trainer Doug O’Neill for 9 races in last 60 days, winning 2, placing in money in 3 for return of +4.20.

Race 9: Jamaica Stakes. 6-5-7-8. SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH has best off-track numbers, with a 90 score 2 races back, the Hall Of Fame (grade 2) Stakes at Saratoga. One of 2 horses who are dead closers benefing from track bias: In 4 races this meet at 9 furlongs on the inner turf, 2 were won by closers. He has fastest pace numbers of the field, with last-call numbers from 99 to 112. SUMMER FRONT shares top winning Belmont speed with 4th choice KING KREESA, scoring a 95 3 races back, in the Hill Prince during the spring meet. Was competitive in the Secretariat Stakes in last race 8/12 at Arlington Park, made 3 wide bid 2 furlongs out, led in stretch by 1.5 lengths, would lose by 2.5 and finish 3rd. He cuts back 1 furlong for this race. Forged lifetime best 96 in last race. Has Ramon Dominguez up, plus trainer Christoper Clement (13% wins)

Race 10: 8-11-7-6 ESS SHAPE has best pace numbers of these; this closer has last-call numbers all in the 90s. Moves from 6.5 furlongs to 1 mile.Forged lifetime best Equibase number of 81 2 races back at Saratoga, then with new trainer ran 79 at Saratoga, might bounce back. ROI angles: Trainer Patrick Reynolds has 2012 record of 8 races, 1 win, 1 placing in the money, for return of +5.25. Also saddled 9 horses going sprint-to-route, with 2 wins, for return of +3.04. ACADIAN BLUES had some late run in his last race here on 9/15 at 1 mile, going from 5th to 3rd in stretch, good inside move, but finished 5th, 5.5 lengths behind winner. No works since last race.

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