Belmont Park selections for 9/29/12

Changes are just being posted and I’m ready to give you my thoughts of the 11 Belmont Park Super Saturday races.

Top trends I’ve uncovered for the week’s races (these minus Friday, which was dark due to anticipated heavy rain) include:

*Track bias: horses who win based on run style or post position. 63% hit rate for first or second place in 41 profiled races.
Turf speed: Best horses in field on the grass have finished 1st or 2nd 59%.
Best track speed: 46% success rate.
Worst performing trends:
Horses in ‘recovery’ form (improvement in Equibase speed figures after peaking off of layoff) have finished 1st/2nd just 10% of the time.
Horses in ‘explosive’ form (new lifetime best speed past prior year’s best) score at 16%.
Off-track: Just 1 in 5 horses this week was 1st/2nd in a race who have had the best track speed from an off-track condition.

Wager scheme is the usual:
Win bets on any of my first 3 selections that are running at worse than 5-1.
Exacta bets between my first 3 selections
4th selection: If this horse is worse than 9-1, I will wager it to win, AND use under exacta with top 3 selections PLUS any horses better than 4-1.

It appears the going is actually off on both the dirt and grass today to start with, but no rain forecast.

Here we go!

race 1 This one is off the turf, bringing in a number of main-trak-only horses into the mix. Extremely tight between top 3. My selections are 4-11-13-1. RED JACK ran mostly 2nd in an 8.5 furlong race on turf here two weeks ago. beaten in late stretch by just 1.5 lengths, actually finishing 5th. No works since. Best jock/trainer win % combo in Ramon Dominguez (26%) and Nick Canani (17%). THE MIXER has fastest track speed of these, a 94 in his maiden-breaker back in July.

race 2. In this MSW race, only 3 horses gathered enough data for any handicapping. I see it as 7-9-10. FOR GREATER GLORY is lone reported closer of the field, scored a last-call 92 in debut with good speed in stretch. STORMY LEN with best jockey/trainer combo (Ramon Dominguez again, here paired with David Donk, winning at 25%).
race 3: 8-7-9-5: RESERVED QUALITY forged lifetime best Equibase of 102 in a 50k claimer last time out, at Saratoga, 8/24. Could bounce off the effort. Best jockey/trainer combo (Dominguez plus Richard Dutrow). SAINT OF SAINTS has fastest off-track speed of the field, a 94 scored on this track in the spring meet. Last 3 overall pace numbers are tops of this field (89-85-90). Comes out of a 4th place finish with mild gain on leaders but no kick at the end.
race 4 This one also off turf. Lots of defections in this one. 15-2-1-12. Big Business gets in as a main-track-only horse. For this 8.5 furlong race he’s prepped with 2 6-furlong efforts, last one here, prior one at Del Mar…scores of 96 ahead of an 87 suggests possible bounce. The 96 is his lifetime best, and also pushes just past his prior best of 92, so there’s possibility he could ‘explode’ to better number here. To boot, he has best jockey/trainer combo of David Cohen (25%) and David Jacobson (43%!). NELSON AVENUE is fastest of these horses as pure sprinter, with 1st-call numbers of 102, 91, and 72 in last 3. Might bounce from last effort, with an overall 94 score ahead of an 80. In that last race he led all the way by 1-1.5 lengths but was caught in deep stretch by just a length for 2nd.
race 5 The Beldame: Only 5 running in this one. 6-1-2-4 IT’S TRICKY is a mortal lock here. 2-for-2 lifetime at Belmont, with best track speed of 109 in last year’s Acorn Stakes. Triple digit Equibase numbers ensure she’s fastest of this field overall. Had tough trip last time in the Personal Ensign in August but made nice bid in final 2 furlongs. 
GO UNBRIDLED has better form today. She forged lifetime best in last race, the Saratoga Dew with a 98 score, and just past her 4YO best score of 96, so it’s entirely possible she’ll run somewhat faster. Possible bounce with this effort tho, as she improved from an 84 score before this. ROI angle: Trainer Allan Jerkens has run 38 horses in Graded events this year, with 16% wins, 34% in money, for +2.76.

race 6
The Kelso Very close between top 2. 6-9-5-4 I’ve always loved SHACKLEFORD and especially like him here. Best track speed of the field, a blazing 115 in the Metropolitan during the spring meet. Middle post will help his cause. TRICKMEISTER has the best record for an off track, a 106 winner at Gulfstream this winter. Under influence of lifetime best scored in July here, a 108 3 races back. Best jockey/trainer combo in Cornelio Velasquez and Richard Dutrow.
Both horses are pure sprinter and will be helped by track bias. So far in the meet, horses running a mile on the dirt who are sprinters win at the rate of 55%, and are 4-for-4 this week.
race 7 The Vosburgh 1-7-1A and 2 or 5 (I’ll use whoever has the worst odds of these two). Yes, both halves of the entry should dominate, tho I like SEAN AVERY most. One lifetime start on an off-track, and scored a win, with a huge 110 effort, his last race in 2011 at Saratoga. Returned after year-long layoff for a 80k win 3 weeks ago here. Fastest pace numbers of the field (all 3 2nd-call numbers in last 3 races are over 100). No works since his 9/8 race. With small sample, has best jockey/trainer combo of Joe Bravo and Allen Iwinski. ROYAL CURRIER has fastest winning Belmont speed, a 107 win scored in the spring meet. Comes out of a 3rd place finish, running 3rd to SEAN AVERY, leading briefly in the stretch, but faded to 3rd by 2.25 lengths.
race 8 Flower Bowl 2-3-7 and 1 or 9 depending on who has worst odds of those two. HESSONITE is a longshot choice here. Fastest Belmont speed of these, a winning 100 score in her last race just 3 weeks ago. Also fastest overall pace of the field; this dead closer has scores of 103, 115 and 99 for last-calls. Forged new lifetime effort in that race and also fits the ‘exploding’ form type; still under influence of running prior lifetime best of 98 back in July. HIT IT RICH also with good value at morning-line. Best turf score of this field, a 104 in the Swannee River at Gulfstream in the winter. Also fastest on an off-track, with a 91 her best score. Moves from 91 to 98 in her last race, so a possible bounce for this sprinter.
race 9 Joe Hirsch Six horses running, 4 are contending for sure. 2-3-5-4. Actually I have 3 and 5 as evenly matched. But #2, POINT OF ENTRY comes out of G1 Stake wins in the Sword Dancer and the Man O’ War (where he scored best track speed of the field, a 100). 1-for-1 on an off track, with a 95 winner. He has fastest overall speed of these, and has best jockey/trainer combo in John Velazquez and Shug McGaughey. TREASURE BEACH, #3 has best turf speed of these, winning at 108 in the 2011 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington. #5, KINDERGARTEN KID could be best in form. Has the recovery angle: After 2 month layoff ran a 95, then 93, then up to 100, suggest further improvement beyond this. Ran a 93 last time in the KY Turf Cup 2 weeks ago, so might be ready to bounce back. No works since that race.
race 10 Jockey Club Gold Cup
4-1-2-7 HYMN BOOK has best Belmont speed of these, a 114 from an ungraded stakes in the 2011 spring meet. Also fastest on an off-track, 4-for-5 lifetime on such condition, with top speed at that same 114. Will be helped by the middle post. RON THE GREEK has fastest overall pace of these. He is one of 5 pure closers in the race but he has the best kick. Was 2nd in the Whitney last time out, rallyingwith an overall 108, and a 119 last call.
race 11 1-12-6-4 BARNARD’S GALAXY is your lock of the day.
Fastest track (and turf) speed of these 57k maidens with an 83, scored in the spring meet. This closer also has fastest overall speed as well. Improved from 63 to 81 last time out, might bounce. Best jockey/trainer combo in Davids Cohen and Jacobson. IMASPEEDYGUY is fastest of those who have run on an off-track, with a 79 posted this winter at Aqueduct. Improved from 49 to 73 and could bounce also. No works since last race at similar conditions 2 weeks ago.
Updates from yours truly during the day on ye olde twitter at @radiocblue  

Handicapping today’s races at Parx 8/22/12 (part 2)

Race 8 Alphabet Soup Handicap. REVISED: 6-11-8-1
WINCHILL made decent stretch move in last race, but was on the wrong end of a DQ. Trainer Kathleen Demasi has +ROI of 4.38 with horses this year running in ungraded stakes events.  
 I’M SURE has the track speed edge, despite finishing 4th in the Roanoke. He briefly led in the far turn in that 8.5 furlong race but had extra ground to cover, running wide, tired out a bit in the stretch. He had scored a 92 in that race, short of his 96 best much earlier in his career. Also with no works since the Roanoke. Both horses are the early-mid pace style. During the meet, horses racing 8.5 furlongs on the turf who have this style have won at the rate of 40%, and 1-for-1 on such a race this week.

Race 9 Gallant Bob Stakes: Great value. 9-1-4-8 JAKE N ELWOOD comes out of a 25k optional claimer, running lifetime best 100, and has the ‘recovery’ form angle. He had 8 month layoff, ran a 94 in March here, and has finally surpassed that number with that 100 score, fastest of the field on this track. Might bounce from that number, too. Best jockey/trainer combo from regular riders here (Frankie Pennington, 18% wins, and Michael Petro, 14%). RAGING DAOUST is fastest overall (2nd call numbers in last three races are 109, 98, 108). He moved from 95 to lifetime best 104, and he could bounce down also. ROI angle for him: Jockey Victor Santiago has worked with trainer Charles Carlesimo Jr. in 7 races over the last 60 days, winning 2, placing in 5, for a return of +5.20. Also, Carlesimo has raced 13 horses this year who won their last start, earning 23% wins, 38% in the money, for return of +2.78. Both horses will gain from track bias: . As these are early-pace types, such horses running 6 furlongs on dirt during the meet have won at the rate of 37%, and 38% this week.

Race 10 Cotillion Stakes: Just four going at it here. 3-1-4-2. MY MISS AURELIA, undefeated in 5 races including the BC Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette and the Adirondack. She’s got the fastest speed of this field (last 3 2nd call numbers: 86, 111, 97). ROI angle for her: Jockey Corey Nakatani has worked with trainer Steve Asmussen in 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2 and placing in all 3, for return of +3.00. MOMENT IN DIXIE may be only value here. Could be helped by track bias with her similar early-pace style that is very favorable on this track. Moves from 92 to 98 in last race, slight bounce risk. 
Had good contending run in last race, was 2nd by head at beginning of stretch, lost by half-length.
Race 11 Pennsylvania Derby 6-2-4 (4th will be 1 or 3, whoever has the worse odds). GOLDEN TICKET had that thrilling dead heat finish in the Travers last time out with Alpha, my 3rd choice. Fastest of the field (last 3 overall pace numbers are 102, 95, 93). Travers score of 102 is a new lifetime best, tho might bounce considering the increase from 95. ROI: Jockey David Cohen has worked with trainer Ken McPeek on 25 races in the last 60 days, winning 12%, placing in 32% for a return of +2.18. CASUAL TRICK has the best track speed here, with a score of 96 in a 47k allowance race 2 races back. Best jockey/trainer combo in Stewart Elliott (19% wins) and Nick Zito (24%) Track bias, tho in a small sample, favores Golden Ticket and Handsome Mike re run style, and post positions 1 through 3.

Race 12 Decent value in the final race. 4-6-7-8 BOSSY BREEN has fastest early fractions of the field and this sprinter easily fastest of these. Moved from 70 to 81 in her Equibase figures, so could bounce back. Led much of the way in her last race, had strong pace but was 2nd by 4 lengths last time. GIFT LIST has best track speed, an 86 from a 45k maiden race 2 races back in August. Had dueled much of her last race but mysteriously stopped late in that 6.5 furlong effort. 

Woodbine race analysis for 9/16/12

From the 6 races yesterday to 9 races today at Woodbine! Yesterday I was able to identify 2 winners, did not hit exactas.
I am liking Woodbine’s coverage the more I watch. They can save the fancy flash and dash of the graphics but solid no-nonsense analysis from usually 1 or 2 female analysts, the main one Dawn Lupul who studies body language. Also there is Jeff Bratt who looks more at pedigree. Both take their time studying each horse, which is useful, plus insights into multiple-race wagers. I am prefering Woodbine over Arlington in terms of TV coverage.
Top trends from the week of racing look similar to yesterday. Horses who benefit from the track bias via run style or post position have the best advantage..15 of 27 horses managed to garner the first 2 positions in a 30 race sample. Horses without reported works since their last race are finishing 1st or 2nd 48% of the time. And horses who have sharp speed figure increase from prior race and who could therefore ‘bounce’ are at 41%.
I’ll give you my thoughts about the top 2 horses in each of 9 out of the 11.
No wagers on this one, and I won’t bother you as to my actual picks but I will give you the scenarios that I am working with:

$2 win bets on any horses in my top 3 selections that may go off at worse than 5-1.
$1 exactas between my top 3 selections.
If my 4th selection is likely to run at worse than 9-1, I will wager that horse to win ($2) and put my top 3 selections (PLUS any favorites…horses that are running better than 4-1) over that 4th selection.

Race 1: 6-3-7. 1,4 are best of the rest; will certainly use either or both as the 4th selection bonus if applicable. #6 has the best overall score across all races, that is POSTER LADY. One start, one rallying 2nd place finish over 5f here. Then got claimed, and now is back, just 2 weeks later, with better maidens to tackle. Best track speed of these, and best all-weather score of 81. Based on that one race, she’s likely a dead closer. No works since that race on 9/1. Also has Da Silva as the jockey with Chircop as trainer; best combo of the field. This is likely the chalkiest race of the 9 I’m covering for you. Also here is D’Wildcat Gold, who will be helped by the track bias, favoring positions 1,2,3. She is the lone horse who forged a new best race recently, a 76 in her 3rd lifetime start, that one on 8/18 going 6f.
Race 2: 1-7-3-6. Really like the value here on top with ADREAMANDAPRAYER. This mare has best track speed, a 95, which was scored last year. She’s also the lone speed. Woodbine sprinters are winning 6f races at a 32% clip for the meet, and 42% this week. ROI angle too: Jockey Tommy Wong has raced 8% winners and 24% in the money in 25 races this year when he’s ridden a sprinter for a return of +6.78. ERMA LEE increased from 81 to 87 in last race and was promptly claimed right after. She had an all out run but failed to hold in a 6f 18k claimer.
Race 3: 3-7-9-8 Value will mix in with the public choices here. 11 going at it, and I can’t really throw out any one of them. WHERE’S JOHNSON is the fastest of these, with a 98 winner last year here. Has jockey/trainer combo of Da Silva (20% wins) and Biamonte (22%). FATHOM’S END is on first start after claim. He went from 75 to an 84 last out, a 6.5f 16k claim event. Dueled and just missed winning that one.

Race 4: 4-2-7-8. Ton of value in these 4, tho the race ultimately sees 2 horses dominate. I’LLTHINKABOUTIT has a winning 93 Equibase score over this track from earlier in the meet, which is also best of the all-weather types. Early-pace type who has been in the top 4 in her last 7 races…last 6 were regional fillies/mare allowance races. Comes out of a 5f race where she briefly led in the stretch upon making up a lot of ground in the backstretch, but used up all her strength by that time, going a bit against type. OUR DARRILYN has more of the form edge. She forged a lifetime best of 83 last time, narrowly beating her 3YO top score of 82. No works since that race on 8/31, should be ready to win today, and has Da Silva in the irons plus trainer Michael Mattine.

Race 5: Canadian Stakes: Very competitive race between my selections of 9-8-5-1. KAPITALE has raced only in Germany and Italy, and then ran her US debut at nearby Arlington. Generally I would be wary of a horse who had did well first time in North America because the 2nd or 3rd start usually is a big downfall. That debut, in the Grade 1 Beverly D for fillies saw her run a 4th place finish and ran rather wide for much of it. She needs the right trip, really, as she’s an absolute closer type,with enough speed to suggest she could be fastest of all. INDIAN POND had forged a 101 lifetime best Equibase number last time out in a G2 event 2 months ago here. She gets the benefit of having Da Silva aboard, along with trainer Mark Casse.

Skipping to race 7, the Ontario Derby. Also competitive between top 3. My top 4 are 7-3-8-2. Some good value behind the likely favorite STEALCASE. His pace totals from the last 3 races (95, 101, 95), all graded events, suggest his late-running style will help him to prevail. Patrick Husbands rides, Mark Casse trains, certainly the best jockey/trainer combo here. ULTIMATE DESTINY gets help from the track bias: Early-pace horses are winning at 9 furlongs on the all weather at a rate of 35% for the meet, and one win in one such race this week. No works since his last race on 9/2.

Race 8 is the Northern Dancer Turf, 12 long furlongs. 6-1-8-2. Lots of value behind my choice to win, the 10YO Musketier. Lifetime best of 111 scored 2 races back here in a G3 event, also at this distance. This dead closer has great stretch numbers as well from his last 3 races. There are 4 such absolute closers in the race. Track bias suggests closers will win at 12 furlongs. They have won 2 of the 3 contested this meet. With a lifetime best this soon, plus a slightly off race since, he has every reason to win here. CELTIC CONVICTION has more of the form angles going on. He had forged a lifetime best of 100 and finished in the same race Musketier had won in back on 6/24. That score pushes past his 3YO best of 98. No reported works since last race on 9/3.

Race 9: 4-11-10-6. MO JO QUEEN likely public favorite in a rather chalky wagering race here. Best track and all-weather speed shared with 2nd choice GALLOPING D’AMOUR. Mo Jo Queen has a winning 93 effort here on 6/17. Early pace type with the fastest pace of the field (2nd call numbers are all in the 90’s, running at 6f). Jockey/trainer combo of Patrick Husbands and Audre Cappuccitti are tops. GALLOPING D’AMOUR matches the 93 score from an 8/25 7f race just 2 races back. He has the recovery angle going on: Was laid off from 5/13 until 7/7, ran and 86, then cooled to an 82, then the 93, then back to an 85 in her last start. ROI angle: trainer Daryl Ezra has 11% of races won and 50% in money when running a horse going from sprint to route and to sprint again, a return of +3.65.

Race 10 is the featured Woodbine Mile. I see this race as close between just 5 of the 9 combatants. 1-3-4-8 are how I see the finish, as I call for the upset and huge value throughout. RIDING THE RIVER has best track speed, a 105 achieved in the King Edward Stakes on 6/24. He goes from sprint to route, which I never value all that much on this track. Has best jockey/trainer win % combo in Husbands and Cotey. WISE DAN is very likely the favorite tho. He’s an early pace type, and has the fastest pace numbers to his style in the field (114, 114, 119 from his last 3 2nd call numbers). Moved from 102 to 110 in his last start, the Four Star David at Saratoga. ROI angle: Charles LoPresti has a +2.47 return on shippers…26% wins, 47% in money.

Enjoy the show! I’ll be on twitter at @radiocblue shortly for mini analysis and further selections.

Woodbine race analysis for 9/15/12

Woodbine is front and center in Sunday’s racing headlines with 4 Graded events, tho there there are also 2 Graded events on their turf course for today, 2 of 6 races I will analyze for you here in this post. Tomorrow’s post will feature my analyzing of 9 out of 10 races.
I was able to analyze just 24 races this past week, Saturday to Friday. I took a look at Friday’s action, which went through a lot of changes as rain set in..3 races were taken off turf and there were residual program changes that made for a lot of back-checking of my work. I’ve been followed on Twitter by freelance journalist Adam Hickman (@ahickman2), who specializes in all aspects of Canadian racing. I shared in his disappoint re a horse in Friday’s race 3, Vino Del Toro, who was chasing the leaders in the back of midpack. Vino Del Toro is a horse who was used to running on or very close to the lead in prior races. He seemed to think the fix was in. I’d agree, as the horse sported the best jockey/trainer combo of the race in Patrick Husbands aboard. Just no excuse, really. Anyways….
As with prior weeks, I will examine the success rate of the eventual top 2 horses across a number of variables and plan accordingly. I bet only wins and exactas for this purpose.
24 races into the week, not all variables came into focus. In fact, I couldn’t handicap a single turf race, as there weren’t any to work with.
Dr. Roman’s awesome website www.chef-de-race.com explores dosage in horses, and also profiles trends per racetracks, a favorite toy for me to use. I reserve this variable for the major stakes of the year. One angle that’s pointed out is that Woodbine is high up on the list of tracks where it’s difficult for sprinters to move up to routes. I examined this variable during the week. Indeed, these horses during the week were 0-for-11 in reaching the top 2 positions.
Best trend: Track bias, based on run style and post position. When Equibase reveals a clear bias for both meet and week, I take the bait. And, sure enough, 9 of 16 horses who fit the track’s strengths did finish in the top 2 positions.
Other strong trends:
The ‘bounce’ angle, or at least the threat of. Horses with a sharp increase in their Equibase speed figures from prior race finished in the top 2 spots 45% of the time.
Horses who dueled for the lead and lost would finish in the top 2 at Woodbine this week at the rate of 41%.
Horses without workouts before today’s races are in the exacta position 41% of the time as well.
I’m handicapping 6 of the 10 races today, including the two big Graded stakes races that are on the turf.
I won’t be littering your timelines with my mythical wagers, but I will provide mini-analysis duplicating what I type here. I also remind you of how I will wager:

$2 win bets on any horses in my top 3 selections that may go off at worse than 5-1.
$1 exactas between my top 3 selections.
If my 4th selection is likely to run at worse than 9-1, I will wager that horse to win ($2) and put my top 3 selections (PLUS any favorites…horses that are running better than 4-1) over that 4th selection.

Now for the analysis itself. I will be updating this as program changes occur before first post:

race 1: 2-5-6-3 ROCKINMEBABY has run exclusively at Woodbine in 11 career starts at age 3. Best winning track Equibase number, an 87, tho that was scored just about a year ago. Also, naturally, best all-weather number of the field too. ROI: jockey Justin Stein and trainer Nick De Toro have done 2 other races in the last 60 days, winning 1, placing in the other, for +4.25. Bounce is possible. SPECIAL SELECTION has the dreaded sprint-to-route move here (as does #6, GOT YOU COVERED). Going at it with the best jockey/trainer win % of the field (Eurico Da Silva & Abraham Katrayn). Increase in speed from 72 to 82 last race. No works since that 82 run on 9/5 here. Got You Covered, an early pace type, has the best pace numbers of the field. In the top 4 last 5 races. Moved from 71 to 79 in last race, also 9/5, and also no works since. ROI: trainer Katerina Vassilieva has ROI number of +8.60 and +8.10 this year with a few horses moving from sprint or sprint-sprint to route. SO LONG GEORGE has more form going on than pace…going from 78 to 86 last time out on 8/5 here, forging new lifetime best effort.

Race 3: 3-6, then 4-5-7 best of the rest. Never is there a greater challenge than having to handicap a race with all first-time starters. Nevertheless I do see a few angles. There is track bias favoring posts 4 through 7 (13% for the meet, 14% for week.I know, it’s low, but consistent). ROI angles: GOLDSTRYKE GLORY (jockey Tyler Pizarro and trainer Terry Jordan are 2-for-2, ROI of +4.85 in races in the last 60 days). PAINTED PONEY: trainer Charalambous has 15% wins, 23% in money, +2.74 for horses making debut in an MSW race. ANGELINTHEEVENING has the best jockey/trainer combo here in Patrick Husbands and Jordan
race 4: 5-3-7-1 Horse-for-course angles match well here up front. AWFULLY SINFUL forged lifetime best speed figure of 90 3 races back here in late July. Dead closer who has best pace numbers of the field. The other is NAME IN LIGHTS who comes out of a failed bid for the lead, making two good moves in her last race to contend early and mid-race.
DARLING DELILAH has the jockey/trainer edge (Husbands with 22% wins, Casse 20%). CARRTOWNS KATIE forged lifetime best 3 races back in early July. Led all the way until finish in an 8.5 furlong race last time out.
race 6 is the Grade 2 Natalma Stakes, with 15 2YO fillies entered. All but 3 horses have come out of sprints, those exceptions are horse 1,2, and 9. Selections are 7-5-4-9. SPRING VENTURE has the potent connections of Husbands and Casse (see above). Also best winning track speed of the field here, an 83 in her first start, 7 furlongs on this turf on 8/18. DANCING FOR GLORY contended late in her first start, 5.5 furlongs at Saratoga, tho 4th most of that race; this late runner could surprsie. RUTHERFORD RD increased speed figure from 58 to 74 last time (and first on turf) , forging new lifetime best of 4 races. Most experienced of the field. ROI angle:jockey Bridgemohan and trainer Doyle have worked together in 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2 for a return of +21.77. KITTEN’S DUMPLINGS comes off first-time run, an 8.5 race over a sloppy Saratoga course, winning from well off the pace. Her last call pace number is 102, overall pace of 89, must be considered.
Race 9 is the Grade 2 Summer Stakes, for 2YOs. All but #4 come out of sprints to run this miler. 8-1-2-3 are my selections. INDIANO JONES owns best track speed here, an 85 in his last race, plus has Husbands-Casse. Might bounce tho as he improved off debut start of 70. BEAR’S FUR contended in a 6f race last time out, yielding in stretch after being bumped around some. BEST PLAY is the big closer threat, who debuted with an 83 score, and a last-call number of 108. I’M BOUNDTOSCORE forged new top of 87 last time out after 4 lifetime races.
Race 10: Again with the home-track angle: 1-2-7-10 are my picks. CITY TRIP, with BEWITCHING LADY each have contended here with 82 speed figures at Woodbine, doubling as best all-weather scores of this field. Further, City Trip has best overall pace in the field. An early running type, she’s scored in the 70’s last 3 races. Bewitching Lady gets points for forging a lifetime best 82 last time out in a game 6.5f effort. Also she increases from 58 to 82..might bounce from that. WHEN FLASHING ran a route for the first time, and did well for his late-running style, just 2 lengths behind winner, remained in 2nd place tho 7 behind, didn’t have enough kick. JENNY COME LATELY makes mild speed increase from 70 to 76 in last race and still under influence of form recovery from an 18-month layoff. Her 76 score also is lifetime best.
I will update these selections and this post once the program change roll in.

Remember to follow yours truly at @radiocblue for mini-analysis and updated selections.

Arlington Park selections 9/8/12 (updated 1213pm ET)

This is the 3rd Saturday I’ve decided on trying a relatively new system out, borne out of watching variables ebb and flow in strength during the same track during the week. I choose tracks based on the strength of the card. More Graded stakes events, or more quality listed stakes will get my attention.
Saturday’s races for our perusal fall upon Arlington Park, highlighted by the Arlington-Washington Lassie & Arlington-Washington Futurity I’m examining races 2 through 9 here in the blog. Mini analysis and mythical wagers, as usual will be posted on Twitter at @radiocblue. Choosing to go mythical, no $ changing hands for the time being. Should I find a day job in the next month or so, I’ll wager real $. I will, however, wager real $ on the Breeders Cup cards.
Having watched some of the action at Arlington, I really like the TV presentation, featuring good analysis from solid track announcer John  Dooley and the lovely Jessica Pacheco. Frankly, I still think NYRA’s coverage is tops but Arlington’s is pretty good.
I focus my work on exacta positioning. I examine which form variables the top two finishers of each race during the week hit or miss on from my list. 15 variables in all are in focus. Here are the top 5 variables that made an impact in exactas in the races from September 1 through 6:
All weather: Top horse in a race that has the best speed figure in the field on prior all-weather races. 9 of 16 qualified horses ran 1st or 2nd this past week.
Pace: Top pace number in last 3 races according to run style. I use the Equibase numbers instead of DRF.
Track: essentially horse for course here; who has best winning speed on this track of those in the field?
Turf: Same as with all-weather and overall track numbers.
Workouts, as in the success rate of horses without works entering the race.

I’ll give you my top 4 selections of the 7 races, plus shortcut selections for those that did best in my top 5.

The wagers run like this:
$1 exactas between the top 3 of the 4 selections.
$2 win bets on any horse who appear to be 6-1 or worse nearing post time.
If my #4 selection is 10-1 or worse, I’d also play win on that horse, plus: use the top selections over this horse in exactas

and any horses running better than 4-1 with the over in exactas.

RACE 2: 18K 5f claiming race for statebred 3YO+

Early selections are 4-1-7-3. #4, HAPMAN, 7YO, scored a 95 winning track/turf speed years ago, best of the field. Dead closer who, if he gets his race, should prevail. That said, he’s won just a race at this level in June here, and a 25k at Hawthorne a year ago. No reported works in over a month. Trainer Charles Livesay has profitable ROI with horses moving from routes to sprints, 4% wins, 29% in the money, for +3.38. UNCLE JEEP comes out of a 46k allowance race here with a stalking pace, and briefly made strong challenge for the lead at the top of the stretch. Forged a lifetime best speed figure 3 races back here in July, still room to improve. Also no reported works since June. Best jockey/trainer win % (Francisco Torres/Tammy Domenonsky). Don’t be surprised if OUTLAW ZEN (#3) factors in top 2 as well; no works since last race.
RACE 3: 23k 6f claiming race for statebred 2YO, non-winners of two.
Selections are 1-5. Yup, just 2 horses are any serious factor here. #1, EMILE, won a 42k maiden race of 4.5f in first life start here, then contended strongly in the 65k Meadowlake, finishing 8th after leading in the stretch, running at 7f. Best speed figures on the track in this field, best on all-weather as well, this sprinter has fastest pure speed overall. He is helped further with top jockey/trainer win % combo of Jeffrey Sanchez and Wayne Catalano. EMILE is currently my LOCK of the day. #5 FLY BOY ROY was 7th in a 40k maiden race for first lifetime start, then won a 25k maiden claimer cutting back from 8 to 5f and change to current jockey ET Baird. Could bounce from his last speed figure of 85. No reported works since before last race on 8/26. Track bias seems to be helping all starters; no one standout.
1213pm: Fly Boy Roy a scratch. The remaining 4 horses all could be helped in some way by track bias, but no real standout. I am passing this race.
RACE 4: 5k 7f claiming race for fillies/mares 3YO +, no wins in 6 months or non winners of four.
Early selections are 4-6-5-1. #4 is RANDOM ZIP, running mainly 10k claimers here and at Hawthorne. Best track and all-weather speed figure (96) of the field, tho this mare hasn’t reached that number in over a year. Her early-pressing style is fastest of the field, tracking the rail in her last several starts; last race did not see her make a closing bid tho. Should be helped by track bias as will all horses in the middle post, according to Equibase’s meet stats for the week. Also in that category is JSP Pals Forever. Another early-pressing styled runner who made a nice gain in speed, 79 to 85 in last race, might bounce from this. Contended through much of her last race at 6.5f, losing the lead just before the stretch.
RACE 5: 7.5k 9f claiming race for 3YO +, nonwinners of two. So far I see this as 3-7-1-2. #3, SOARING PEGASUS comes off lifetime best 81, running 2nd all throughout until deep stretch, first time going 9f. Could bounce from this effort. Fastest speed of this field, and fastest on the all-weather. #7, HIPPODROME could be had for a price. This dead closer has fastest pace numbers in the field. Tends to right in tight quarters and forced to run wider than normal. Typical for a closer, must get ‘his race’ to win…hasn’t won in nearly a year. Track bias can help horses 1 through 3
RACE 6:25k 5f claiming race for statebred 3YO +, non winners of 3. Predicting 5-3-1-7 finish. #5 PINK LEMONADE is racing well under new trainer Larry Rivelli, leading at some point over both her last 2 races here. Fastest horse to her style here, this early-pressing horse was competitive in her last race until deep stretch, then won previous to that. Also has best jockey/trainer win % combo in field, (ET Baird, and Larry Rivelli). #3 LORD OF THE ROSES has fastest track speed here. Could bounce from her last effort, forging lifetime best 83 above a prior effort of 76. Two wins and a 3rd in 3 lifetime races.
RACE 7 ARLINGTON-WASHINGTON FUTURITY Grade III race for 2YO, 8f. Predicted finish: 1-6-5-3 #1 MUPPET MAN won the aforementioned Meadowlake here on 8/4. 2 wins in 2 starts for this 2 year old, scoring speed figures of 97 and 90. Fastest on the all-weather of this field. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in Jeffrey Sanchez and James DiVito. #6 URBAN RENEWAL should be a nice surprise. Ran in a statebred stakes last time out, scoring an 84, running 2nd all the way. Might bounce from his effort. No reported works since that stakes race on 8/11.
RACE 8: ARLINGTON-WASHINGON STAKES Grade III race for 2YO, 8f. Big 14 horse field! 12-7-13-11. #12 FLYING RAPUNZEL in 2 lifetime starts ran maiden races of 40k,5f and 7f, breaking maiden last time with speed figure of 95. Fastest Arlington speed and fastest all-weather speed of this field, and has best jockey/trainer combo in field (Miguel Mena, Wayne Catalano). #7 DANCING ELLIEBELLE is my BEST BET of the day (morning line 20-1). Improved sharply between last 2 races, going from a 79 in a 75k races, to 88 in an optional claimer worth 50k, forging lifetime best. This year, trainer Frank Springer has a +6.20 ROI with horses making their first route start (win 22%, in money 33%)
1213pm: #11 a scratch which doesn’t change my top 2. My top 4 tho is now: 12-7-13-9
RACE 9: 42k 5f allowance race for statebred fillies/mares 3YO+, no wins over 8.8k other than maiden, claiming, starter or allowance, plus nonwinners of two. If all 13 go, this would be the most competitive of the races today. In fact I’m predicting huge value to finish ahead of the public in this one. 10-2-1-3 #10 HOIST THE COLORS returns to sprint after a long series of routes. 2 races back scored a 91 here, fastest on this track among those with wins here. One of several sprinters who will be helped by the track bias. Equibase says that, for the meet, in 24 races at 5 furlongs on the turf, 63% were won by sprinters (look to #7,#,3, and #12, the other sprinters also). Ran good inside pace in a 50k claimer last time out, only yielding near the stretch at one mile. Also has this ROI angle: jockey Alex Canchari has run 62 races on turf this year, winning at 13% and in the money at 32%. ROI: +2.31. #2 RESOUNDINGLY has the best turf speed of the field; goes from a 65 to an 89 in last 2 races, so a possible bounce. Also comes out of a pace setting race…she actually is more of a late running type who was leading all the way last time out, just missing win at the wire. She is in a recovery form having run a 79 first after layoff, then was claimed, then runs 65 and 89 in last two.
1213pm: 5 horses scratched from this race (2,7,11,12,13). Here’s the revised top 4:10-1-3-9. Hoist The Colors now with top turf speed of the field. The case for #1, Fire Tricks: 3 races at 6-6.5f. Dead closer coming well off pace to win first 2 life races, ran 5th at similar speed last time. Fastest of the 10 runners.

More updates as more changes occur
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