Absolutely zero time to do any analysis including the big Travers Stakes, but I have time as I go to do top-4 selections of each race. At this moment I have just 5 races done. I will update this post with selections as we go. For up to the minute mythical wagers that I would place, please follow me at @radiocblue. Thanks
Here’s the scheme of wagering I plan. All mythical. NO $ actually changing hands:
$2 win bets on any of my top 3 selections if running worse than 5-1
$1 exactas between top 3 selections (6 total bets)
If 4th selection is longshot, use in exacta over the public top 2 favorites (and also to win if worse than 5-1)
win bets are $2, exacta are straight, $1 each.
race 1: 2-8-3 and 11 $12 wagered $0 payoff
race 2: 6-4-8 and 2 $10 wagered. Scored exacta $9.60 payoff
race 3: 5-1-4 and 7 $12 wagered. $0 payoff
race 4: 11-13-5 and 3 $12 wagered $0 payoff
race 5: 12-6-1 and 9 $10 wagered $0 payoff
race 6: 8-6-7 and 2 $10 wagered $24.80 payoff with exacta
race 7: 12-1-9 and 2 $10 wagered $152.75 payoff. Clinched profit for the day!
race 8: 11-4-6 and 9 $12 wagered $0 payoff.
race 9: 2-4-6 and 3 $10 wagered $9.50 payoff with exacta
race 10: 3-6-8 and 5 $8 wagered $0 payoff
race 11: 3-7-4 and 1 $10 wagered $24.80 payoff with win on #1
Travers Stakes analysis:
SPEIGHTSCITY improves in speed strongly off the 2nd place finish in the Withers back on 2/4. Has had a lot of local works. Coming off long layoff. Nothing suggests he will be competitive here as he could bounce from that 97 score in the Withers.
FIVE SIXTEEN improved in speed figure from a 5th place finish in the Belmont Stakes to a 2nd in the Curlin here in July, forging new lifetime best speed figure of 101 in the process. Probably to bounce off that number.
GOLDEN TICKET was 3rd last out at Churchill back in late May, a 75k optional claimer. He had run the race 3-wide, led very briefly. Then with the layoff and works, he seems to be a factor. Only horse of the field coming out of a losing speed duel in the field.
STEALCASE, as with horses 5 through 7, will all benefit from the middle post. This horse improved well in speed between 2 Graded stake races and could bounce from that 101 number reached in the Haskell Invitational last time out.
STREET LIFE has the fastest winning speed on the track in this field, a 103 in his most recent race, winning the Curlin on 7/27. Also at risk for a bounce from his speed figure, forging a new lifetime best in the process.
ALPHA improved strongly in speed, an 87 in the Kentucky Derby, then a 100 in the Jim Dandy last time out. Yes, he can bounce too, but what I like here is that he has the best jockey/trainer win % combo of the field (Ramon Dominguez/Kieran McLaughlin).
ATIGUN will be helped by the middle post track bias. Otherwise no redeeming value for him.
NONIOS did forge a lifetime best speed figure, finishing 2nd in the Haskell last time out. Probably will bounce from the 106 speed figure.
FAST FALCON is 20-1 morning line and is the horse I like most for value. He’s got the fastest pace of the field. Assuming he gets the proper trip, he has a strong stretch kick, which he showed off in the Dwyer stakes 2 races back…tho didn’t fire in the Jim Dandy last time out. Considering it was a sloppy track, can we throw that race out?
My selections are 5-6-11 and 3 (if #3 is a longshot)
GOLDEN TICKET are my top 4.
Scored win on Golden Ticket and Alpha-Golden Ticket exacta. $141.80 payoff
oh, and race 13: 7-13-1 and 4