8/25 Saratoga selections & Travers analysis (with live updating)

Absolutely zero time to do any analysis including the big Travers Stakes, but I have time as I go to do top-4 selections of each race. At this moment I have just 5 races done. I will update this post with selections as we go.  For up to the minute mythical wagers that I would place, please follow me at @radiocblue.  Thanks

Here’s the scheme of wagering I plan. All mythical. NO $ actually changing hands:

$2 win bets on any of my top 3 selections if running worse than 5-1
$1 exactas between top 3 selections (6 total bets)
If 4th selection is longshot, use in exacta over the public top 2 favorites (and also to win if worse than 5-1)

win bets are $2, exacta are straight, $1 each.
race 1: 2-8-3 and 11     $12 wagered    $0 payoff 
race 2: 6-4-8 and 2   $10 wagered. Scored exacta  $9.60 payoff   
race 3: 5-1-4 and 7   $12 wagered.  $0 payoff
race 4: 11-13-5 and 3 $12 wagered  $0 payoff
race 5: 12-6-1 and 9  $10 wagered  $0 payoff  
race 6: 8-6-7 and 2  $10 wagered   $24.80 payoff with exacta
race 7: 12-1-9 and 2  $10 wagered $152.75 payoff. Clinched profit for the day!
race 8: 11-4-6 and 9 $12 wagered  $0 payoff. 
race 9: 2-4-6 and 3  $10 wagered  $9.50 payoff with exacta
race 10: 3-6-8 and 5  $8 wagered $0 payoff 
race 11: 3-7-4 and 1 $10 wagered  $24.80 payoff with win on #1

Travers Stakes analysis: 

Going horse for horse to see how the Travers Stakes looks:
SPEIGHTSCITY improves in speed strongly off the 2nd place finish in the Withers back on 2/4. Has had a lot of local works. Coming off long layoff. Nothing suggests he will be competitive here as he could bounce from that 97 score in the Withers.

FIVE SIXTEEN improved in speed figure from a 5th place finish in the Belmont Stakes to a 2nd in the Curlin here in July, forging new lifetime best speed figure of 101 in the process. Probably to bounce off that number.

GOLDEN TICKET was 3rd last out at Churchill back in late May, a 75k optional claimer. He had run the race 3-wide, led very briefly. Then with the layoff and works, he seems to be a factor. Only horse of the field coming out of a losing speed duel in the field.

STEALCASE, as with horses 5 through 7, will all benefit from the middle post. This horse improved well in speed between 2 Graded stake races and could bounce from that 101 number reached in the Haskell Invitational last time out.

STREET LIFE has the fastest winning speed on the track in this field, a 103 in his most recent race, winning the Curlin on 7/27. Also at risk for a bounce from his speed figure, forging a new lifetime best in the process.

ALPHA improved strongly in speed, an 87 in the Kentucky Derby, then a 100 in the Jim Dandy last time out. Yes, he can bounce too, but what I like here is that he has the best jockey/trainer win % combo of the field (Ramon Dominguez/Kieran McLaughlin).

ATIGUN will be helped by the middle post track bias. Otherwise no redeeming value for him.

I’ve actually tossed out my case for NECK N’ NECK and LIAISON. Neither horse appears to be in good form to contend.

NONIOS did forge a lifetime best speed figure, finishing 2nd in the Haskell last time out. Probably will bounce from the 106 speed figure.

FAST FALCON is 20-1 morning line and is the horse I like most for value. He’s got the fastest pace of the field. Assuming he gets the proper trip, he has a strong stretch kick, which he showed off in the Dwyer stakes 2 races back…tho didn’t fire in the Jim Dandy last time out. Considering it was a sloppy track, can we throw that race out?

My selections are 5-6-11 and 3 (if #3 is a longshot)
STREET LIFE
ALPHA
FAST FALCON
GOLDEN TICKET are my top 4.
$14 wagered.
Scored win on Golden Ticket and  Alpha-Golden Ticket exacta.  $141.80 payoff

oh, and race 13: 7-13-1 and 4

 

Arlington Park selections 8/18

I couldn’t stay way long enough. Having had a generally losing year in wagering on horses, I tore up my systems, citing fatigue and debt and decided to just wait for the Breeders Cup races to dare tempt fate again.
Upon hearing I may return to work shortly I started again in earnest to go after another windmill and get in the game again. Right now, it seems there is a delay on the announcement re returning to work, so…here’s my plan:
I’m offering top 4 selections on races 1 through 11 at Arlington Park, which feature 3 Graded stakes events at the end. I use weighted averages of variables based on last week’s races at this track. I ranked the variables based on who were likely to finish in exacta position most.
Next week I’ll do likewise with the Saratoga card on Travers Day.
No actual $ changing hands here. It’s all on paper for today’s action. Ready?
Here’s how they look to me:

RACE 1:5-1a-4-6
RACE 2: 4-2-6-5

RACE 3 3-9-5-10
RACE 4: 11-9-3-1
RACE 5: 6-3-8-2
RACE 6: 8-1-2-5
RACE 7: American St. Leger Stakes: 11-2-9-4
RACE 8 4-8-1-7
RACE 9: Hatoof Stakes  8-2-9-1
RACE 10:Secretariat Stakes   3-8-7-4.    Real toss-up between 3 and 8.
RACE 11: Arlington Million 1-6-10-11  The 8YO Rahystrada is fastest in the field, comes out of a win earlier in the meet on this track, the Arlington Handicap, scoring a lifetime best 106 Equibase #. Might bounce a bit from this number but not by much. Also just passed his 7YO best of 102.    Treasure Island mainly racing in Europe, has the best track speed figure of the field, a 108, from last year’s edition of the Secretariat Stakes. He will be helped by the track bias, which favors a middle post. Yes, I like the longshots after these, both who forged new tops in recent form. Cherokee Lord could bounce a bit from his effort in the Arlington Hcp, tho also pushed past his best speed figure from last year in the process.  Vertiformer has the best jockey/trainer win % combo in Jeffrey Sanchez and Wayne Catalano.