2012 Belmont Stakes day selections (update)

With a myriad of changes between 13 races I’m revising all my selections. Cutting to the chase, I’m simply posting the program numbers of my selections for each race, plus those that I’d give extra weight to if they happen to be longshots. 
race 1: 4-1-9  (5,6)
race 2: 6-5-3 (7,2)
race 3: 6-1-2 (3)
race 4: 3-2-11 (8)
race 5: 2-4-5-9 (1)
race 6: 4-9-1 (5,8)
race 7: 1-6-2 (4,5)
race 8: 4-1-5 (2,6)
race 9: 2-3-7) (1)
race 10: 7-3-4 (6)
race 11: 1-7-3 (2)

race 12:7-8-6 (1,4)

race 13: 5-9-8 (6)

Belmont Stakes 2012 analysis

A Belmont without I’ll Have Another? I suppose I’ll deal with it. And deal we shall as I go through this year’s big race:

STREET LIFE: He will get help from the track bias. Route races on dirt at Belmont are skewed toward pure sprinters and all horses on the rail. He is on the rail tho a dead closer. He’s also the fastest horse in the field, with quick moves in the stretch each time out. Possibility of bouncing in speed from his 3rd place Peter Pan Stakes finish, going from 94 to 100.

UNSTOPPABLE U is one of the sprinters that will benefit from the track bias. He will set the early pace. He did win his last race, 2nd lifetime, a mile on 4/27 winning by 6 lengths. 2-for-2 lifetime. It’s just a matter of stretching out 4 more furlongs.
UNION RAGS comes out of a 7th place finish in the KY Derby. Winner of last year’s G1 Champagne Stakes, he has the fastest Brisnet win on the track, a 98 from that race.
ATIGUN is the one horse exploding into form. In his last race, a 100k optional claimer he scored a 96, just past his 3YO best of 95.
DULLAHAN has a win at 9 furlongs, the G1 Blue Grass Stakes. Forged lifetime best 105 last time out in the KY Derby.
RAVELO’S BOY is an absolute throwout.
FIVE SIXTEEN broke his maiden 2 races back in a 9 furlong 65k race at Aqueduct, 3/14. This might be the horse best in form. He forged a lifetime best of 92 in his last race, a 67k allowance on 4/18. Jockey Anna Napravnik and trainer Dominick Schettino have combined to run 6 races in the last 60 days, winning 1, in the money in 2, for an ROI of +3.33.
GUYANA STAR DWEEJ has the best dosage profile of the field (Eddington/Special Feeling, by Pine Bluff).
PAYNTER forged lifetime best of 107 in a 50k allowance race at Pimlico, 5/19.
OPTIMIZER has this ROI angle: Jockey Nakatani and trainer Lukas have combined for 7 races in the last 60 days, winning 2 races, for ROI of +3.86.
MY ADONIS has the best jockey/trainer combo in the field with RA Dominguez winning at 27% for the meet, and Kelly Brown winning at 40% (2-for-5). He comes out of the ungraded Canonero II 50k Stakes, losing a speed duel in the stretch.
Selections:
1-7-3 Street Life, Five Sixteen, Union Rags.

Second guess: Unstoppable U deserves another look among the rest of the longshots.

Belmont Park 6/9 full card analysis

With 13 races to cover for Belmont’s big Saturday, 10 of the races will be analyzed here, saving Belmont Stakes for a separate post. I will be wagering actual $ on these.

Please bear in mind that I will edit and change the posts during the hours before the races to compensate for early scratches. Anything breaking may be tracked in my Twitter feed at @radiocblue. I will always tweet my final selections once there’s sufficient time to wager, usually 5-10 minutes before post time.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I had done an experiment that draws from examining top paying exactas. It would seem like seeing lightning strike twice, but this is just about what I am doing. I am building a smaller second-guess system that incorporates a top longshot along with favorites, plus key horses that match up with my original selections.
Race 1 is 8.5 furlongs on the widener turf, a race for fillies/mares, nonwinners of 2, 3YO+. 25k claimer. World Premier (longshot) has the fastest pace numbers of the field with a pair of 2nd call numbers in the 80s. I Dreamt I Was (fave) has won at 8.5 furlongs and had won a 41k maiden race. She has the best jockey/trainer combo in the race with RA Dominguez (26% wins) and Steve Assmussen (32%). St. Lucy (longshot) has the fastest Brisnet numbers on this track in the field, with an 82 numbers scored last year.
Those are the top 3 here: World Premier, I Dreamt I Was, St. Lucy (8-4-9).
Second guess: Here’s where I’m introducing my newer system to bring in longshots outside of the top 3 and to use under and over top 2 favorites at post time.
Luck In The City, Forever Vow and Silent Joy ( are fitting the profile, tho morning-line suggests Silent Joy at just 10-1 and Forever Vow at 6-1. Luck In The City has both exploding and recovering form in her cycle….3 runs in the 70s in her last 3. After a layoff 2 starts into her 4YO campaign, she did explode past her 3YO best and has since forged a new top in her last race at Belmont 5/26. She owns 2 clusters of form that make her attractive. So does Forever Vow: Has the same pattern forging and exploding after making initial runs in her own 4YO year, and forged lifetime best of 80 3 races back. Silent Joy could bound from her last effort, where she ran 2nd in a 20k claimer, scoring a 76. This was beyond her previous to that, a 24. Luck In The City gets top preference of the best of the rest. Ton of value in this one!
Race 2 is a Maiden Special Weight, 75k, 1 mile on the dirt.
Escape Artist has the pace numbers: Triple digit figures for this dead closer’s stretch runs in his 2 lifetime races, finishing 2nd and 3rd. Also has the best jockey/trainer combo of RA Dominguez and Chad Brown (29%). Track bias for milers on dirt this meet have been sprinters (46%, with week totals 67%). This gives weight to Tiz Yankee, Mr. Beer Goggles, and Last Cat. These types of races have also favored the rail horse, so give some love to Wild Target.
Selections are 6-5-3: Escape Artist (fave) , Tiz Yankee, Last Cat (longshot).
Second guess: Tiz Yankee appears best of the key factors that may suggest a high price exacta despite his 4/1 price. Also in the mix here are Mr. Beer Goggles and Last Cat, who are longshots according to morning-line that I may use with the lower value types. Tiz Yankee is strongest in both sets of analyses.

Race 3 is an optional claimer of 14k for statebreds, 3YO+.

Overextended has the best pace numbers….this dead closer always seems to run Brisnet numbers in the 90s+ in the stretch. No works since his last race from 5/27. Diamond District is improving in form also, forging a new lifetime best of 97 in his most recent race, a win on 5/27. In the process he’s got the recovery angle going on: Since his 7YO debut, scoring a 92, he dropped into the 80, then only went past 92 with his last race. Best track performance of these is Ruffino, who won with a 103 score, his lifetime best, several years ago.
Track bias for this race, also for milers on dirt, gives credence to sprinters (Six Flings, Good Law) and the rail horse Diamond District.
Selections are Overextended, Diamond District, Ruffino (6-1-8)
Second guess: Track bias comes into play for 3 horses as mentioned. Of these 3, Six Flings is the one longshot (10-1 at morning line) that may get used for extra wagering. In both cases, Diamond District may prove to be best.
Race 4 is on the inner turf, 75k maiden races for 3YOs.
Giving high marks here to dead closer Lure Of The South, one of the outright longshots, who has garnered quick stretch runs in his 3YO campaign. No works since his last run 5/24. Forged a new best Brisnet of 85 2 races back. Current Design sports the big jockey/trainer combo of Dominguez and Brown. Could bounce from his 88 score garnered in a 4/14 maiden race, 2nd straight gain within 3 lifetime starts. Longwood Lane was a beaten favorite in his last race, 9/18/11 on this track, scoring an 86, best Brisnet # at Belmont. Then got claimed away from Todd Pletcher and should prevail.
Track bias for 8.5 furlongs on turf give the edge to late-pace horses (Longwood Lane, Ur) as well as posts 1 through 3 (Current Design, Dervish Prince, Lure Of The South)
Selections are Lure Of The South, Current Design, Longwood Lane (3-2-11).
Second guess: No change here. Each of my top 3 selections past muster. Lure Of The South might be the one used with favorites outside of my selections.
Race 5 is one mile on the turf,62k allowance for statebred 3YOs+.
Heading To The City is one of 6 horses here woh have already won past 1 mile. Won a 30k claiming race on 3/10, his 5YO debut. This early-pace horse is fastest of the field, a pair of 1st and 2nd call numbers in the 90s. He might bounce, going from a 75 to an 84 in his last 2 races. No works since his last race 5/26. Adjournment is one of 4 horses who must overcome the sprint-to-route adjustment at Belmont, a big negative. To make up for this, he has the best winning speed on this track, a 90 in his most recent race 5/18. He looks to best in form too. Along with forging a new top at 90, he also is completing a recovery pattern. His 4YO debut saw him at 81, then ran 2 lower races, then broke through with the 90 score. Still under influence of the 81 race run 3/18. Along with this is an ROI angle: Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has run 3 races with trainer Robert Barbara in the last 60 days. One win, 3 in the money, resulting in a return of +7.13. In My Eyes also has proven worthy of the mile distance. He has the best jockey/trainer combo of the field (Anna Napravnik/Michael Matz). Improved from his 2YO best with an 89 last time out, and will bounce from that number or forge ahead.
Track bias gives edge to Mr. Vantastic and Powerful Instinct, both who are late-running types.
Initial selections are 2-4-5: Heading To The City, Adjournment (longshot) and In My Eyes.
Second guess: Further study doesn’t reveal much more, as Heading To The City, and In My Eyes look even stronger apart from the others. For another live longshot I look to the 1 horse, Quiet Power. He also won a 30k claimer and was reclaimed late into his 3YO campaign by present trainre Thomas Bush. This horse contended and led in his last race, same distance on dirt, here on 4/27, tiring out in the stretch. Also has an ROI angle: Jockey Eddie Castro has worked with Bush on 8 races in the last 60 days, winning 1 and 4 times in the money, returning +6.69. Forged a lifetime best score of 95 2 races back on 3/22.
Powerful Instinct, thanks to track bias, may emerge as another live longshot, tho Quiet Power trumps this one.
Great value in this race.

Race 6: Easy Goer Stakes.

Skyring looks great here. Winner of a 100k ungraded stakes last time out 5/19 at Pimlico, forging a new lifetime best. Fastest pace numbers of this field. Good positive ROI numbers for jockey Corey Nakatani. Working for D. Wayne Lukas, Nakatani has run 7 races, winning 2, for a return of +3.88. No other horse seems to have a cluster of good form. Invasion Target has run scores of 97 in three of his last 4 races, one of those at Belmont, fastest Brisnet number in the field for the track. Bridge Loan has the top jockey/trainer combo of RA Dominguez and Todd Pletcher; he forged a new lifetime best of 92 2 races back on 4/14. Track bias favors Bridge Loan as he’s the rail horse.
Selections are 4-9-1: Skyring, Invasion Target, Bridge Loan (longshot)
Second guess: Brimstone Island and Fast Falcon each have gained by 10 in their Brisnet scores, and could bounce or otherwise move upward still in this race. Bridge Loan trumps here as the best live longshot, tho I might use Fast Falcon as 2nd live longshot with favorites.
Race 7: True North Handicap (G2)
Pacific Ocean may be best here, owning top pace numbers. Scored a 105 in a G3 race after posting a 92, so this is a bounce candidate.
Giant Ryan should contend also. Winner of the Vosburg Invitation last year and 5th in the Dubai Golden Shaheen last time out. Best Brisnet at Belmont came in the Vosburgh, a winning score of 108. Crossbow has the best jockey/trainer combog in Dominguez and McLaughlin.
Track bias favors both pure sprinters (Crossbow) and posts 4 through 7.
Selections are 1-6-2: Pacific Ocean, Giant Ryan, Crossbow.
Second guess: Hamazing Destiny and Royal Currier best of the rest of these, with the latter a live longshot factor thus far. Royal Currier gets the track bias benefit. Also has small ROI angle: jockey Maragh and trainer Patricia Ferro have worked in one race in the last 60 days and won. This stat actually reflects the horse’s last race, a 85k stakes win on this track 5/10. ROI return was +14.20.
Race 8: Longines Just A Game Stakes.
Winter Memories has a strong edge in this race, and it’s no surprise she’s the morning-line favorite. A winner at 9 furlongs, she’s also a G1 winner, and has the best Brisnet number at Belmont of this field, a 103 winning score in the G3 Beaugay last time out 5/5. This dead closer has the fastest pace numbers in the field. Might bounce from the 103 score tho. Tapitsfly is the very likely 2nd choice, who has best form of this field. She broke through her lifetime best just slightly with a 105 Brisnet number in her most recent, a 2nd place finish in a G2 race, also on 5/5 at Belmont. She had lost the race by a length after briefly leading in the stretch. Also has the recovery angle in play, matching a level she established right after a layoff in March. Only other horse to win at 9 furlongs is Hungry Island, who also is prone to bounce from her last effort, a 105, defeating Tapitsfly in the aforementioned race.
Selections are 4-1-5: Winter Memories, Tapitsfly, Hungry Island.
Second guess: Sylvestris might be the longshot to key with favorites. Major obstacle is to overcome transitioning from sprint to route. Reached a lifetime best for US races with a 97 last time out, leaving her open to a bounce down. Trainer Robert Barbara has run 14 horses in graded stakes this year, winning just 1 for an ROI of +4.40.
Race 9: Woody Stephens Stakes
Hardened Wildcat is my top choice here. Dead closer wtih huge stretch runs every time out, and is fastest of the horses here. Never out of the money in all but his maiden debut, totalling 6 races. Best jockey/trainer combo of JJ Castellano and Chad Brown. Best in form currently is Il Villano. He recorded a 106 winning Brisnet at Pimlico in a 100k stakes race last month. Could bounce down from that. Jockey and trainer JL Flors and Susan Crowell haven’t raced at Belmont this meet yet, tho they have run 3 races in the last 60 days, winning for an ROI of +4.80. Best Brisnet on the track is from Power World, winning with a 100 in an allowance race here last month.
All three horses are at good value per morning-line. Selections: 2-3-7.

Second guess: I could actually bring in Hierro here, who happens to be one of the prime favorites to use with my high-price selections. Winner of the Derby Trial, he recorded a 107 lifetime best, a sharp increase from 94 before that, so might bounce from this.

Race 10: Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap. 10 furlongs on the inner turf.

Top Surprize has the best pace numbers…he’s a dead closer with at least 10 straight races in the top 4. Al Khali has the best Brisnet score at Belmont, 100. Desert Blanc has the best makes his 2nd US start, and has the best jockey/trainer combo in RA Dominguez and Chad Brown. He dueled and lost in his US debut, last month’s Fort Marcy (G3). Selections: 8-3-4.
Second guess: Boisterous, Hudson Steele and Brilliant Speed, all morning-line choices seem to be the best of the rest. Not likely I’ll use them with my selections as I’m calling for big value to upset.
Races 12 and 13 have a bunch of also-eligibles and main-track-only runners. I’ll hold off on analysing these until the early scratches are reported.

Belmont Stakes analysis, horse-for-horse, in the next post.

Handicapping experiment at Mountaineer (so far so good)

Just had a nice experience handicapping. I really wasn’t going to wager any $ until Belmont Stakes day but I was eager to do a real-time test of my exacta projections. Put simply, I am targeting specific variables that can suggest a higher exacta payoff than others. The data includes the top paying exactas of recent races across all levels of Thoroughbred racing over several weeks. One week into my research, some variables have firmly stood out, enough for me to create a feeder wagering system that will work with my current system.
Only racing left this evening was at Mountaineer in WV, where I had never seen racing before while watching on www.twinspires.com/tv The one set of past performances open to me was for race 9, mile $8k claimer for nonwinners of 3. This is just the sort of race (and at times, the sort of track) that can produce high exactas. Something about the lesser amount of people moving the money around as opposed to major tracks like Belmont or Churchill makes a difference. The odds actually do fluctuate much more, so there is always the chance a horse will go off much higher or lower in value than he/she really is. Ergo, higher payouts. I say this happens the majority of the time, track-for-track.
I did my usual amount of analysis which I’ll share here:
Race 9 at Mountaineer contained 8 betting interests. 6 of which had some real claim to be a winner. Probably a few too many to my liking! Babu was one of 3 horses who could win at least the required mile distance. Also had a nice ROI angle (jockey/trainer had won 1 of 2 races in the last 60 days, for a return of $2.90). Line Camp would be helped most by the track bias, which was favoring horses on the rail 21% for the meet, 43% for the week. He and Babu were possible bounce candidates from their prior races. Geri’s Kid seemed a real throw-out. Outside of winning at 1 mile plus, nothing seemed outstanding in the 8YO’s form. Caracas didn’t impress me at all. Street Talk’n Man did impress: a horse who ran a new lifetime top of 91 Brisnet last time out, and just pushed his prior year’s best of 89. Also a threat to bounce down, but as an ‘exploding’ horse, this actually turns form into his favor. No other horse was in such form in this race. Bonnistar had the fastest winning Brisnet # on the track, so that means something. Honor Evening lost a long rail duel last time out and entered with best jockey/trainer win combo of the field (DL Parker 28%, Chris Englehart 20%). On the outisde post was Gifts For a King, who had the fastest pace numbers of the field, and who had recently forged a new lifetime best, along with the ability to run and win at a mile plus.
In order my selections were 5 and 8, with 6 and 7 very close together (Street Talk’n Man, Bonnistar, Honor Evening, Gifts For A King. The exacta payouts at worst were about $20, so I knew I could wager a bit more without taking a loss. I decided here on an exacta bet with all 4 horses ($12), removing any such exacta bets where there was pure chalk between them, and adding win bets on any horse going off at worse than 5-1. There was just one: Bonnistar.
Now the newer system was set to go. I looked at specific variables that suggested an upset. Without giving details on this too soon, I saw 3 horses stand out: 2, 5, 8. My tactic was to ‘bring in’ any horse that was not in my original selections AND was going off at worse than 9-1. Line Camp was at least 50-1 at post time so I decided on putting a win bet on him for $2, and single exactas over and under the 3 favorites at post time (Caracas, Street Talk’n Man, Honor Evening).
If you’re keeping score, I was wagering $22 in all.
So to recap: 5-6-7-8 were my selections. 2-5-8 were my secondary picks. This meant that 5 and 8 could safely be keyed in any wagers. I was taking the value of my original contenders, playing them together, and then introducing a longshot with the pure favorites of the race.

Result: 5-8-7! For $1 exacta of 5-8, it paid $27.50, and a profit for the race.

And with that, I’ll hold off on wagering until Belmont Stakes Day, where I will be analysing and handicapping (and wagering, for once) the entire card.

Stakes analysis for several races today

This post contains my analysis on 6 graded events listed for today.
While waiting for Belmont Stakes Day, I’ve started long-term analysis on exactas and how I can possibly spot a triple-digit payoff on them in advance. Having hit a couple of them before, I want to be ahead of this curve if I can.
What exactly am I doing? I am looking at the results of most major and some minor tracks, spotting the top several $2-rate payouts on exactas, then reverse-engineering by handicapping the race to see if I could spot the proper contenders and also see what variables might have contributed to a particular 1-2 finish. I plan to examine a total of 90 races. I’m up to 12 through Friday. By mid-July I expect to complete the analysis.
Now for those stakes races:
at Woodbine: Nassau Stakes
Forest Uproar has the best winning Brisnet # at Woodbine, a 98, which she earned in a G2 race last summer. Fantastic Cousin is a lifetime sprinter moving up to this route distance of a mile. Woodbine is not kind to horses making this move. Her jockey GL Olguin aligned with trainer Reade Baker just once in the last 60 days, and winning that race for an ROI of +20.60. Roxy Gap is also hindered by the sprint-to-route move here. She does get the best winning jockey trainer combo in P Husbands (21%) and Mark Casse (21%). Last race was a G2 stakes win just 3 weeks ago here.
Inglorious has won at 12 furlongs, tied with Marketing Mix for longest distance win of the field. Inglorious is the lone closing horse of the bunch; that fact alone may give her an edge. She’s already the fastest horse to her style, with 2 triple-digit Brisnet scores in the stretch last two races.
Marketing Mix also won at the Grade 2 level, a race at CD last autumn, and threatens to bounce off her 100 Brisnet number (G2 race last month also at CD). She also has best lifetime Brisnet on turf, a 101
Selections: Inglorious, Marketing Mix, Forest Uproar. The morning-line odds do not look promising with value in this race.
at Belmont:
Vagrancy Handicap
This is really a 2-horse race amongst the 6 entered. Belle Of The Hall should be a good surprise. She and the other major contender, Nicole H. own best winning Brisnet # for Belmont at 102. Belle Of The Hall gets the rail position, which has won 24% of the time during the meet, and 33% during the week. Also has the best speed figures on an ‘off’ track such as today’s race will be, a 102. Further she gets the best jockey/trainer combo in JJ Castellano and Tom Albertrani. Nicole H.’s edge comes from winning at the G2 level previous (last year’s Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct), and has the fastest current pace of all horses here (109 and 106 2nd call numbers in last 2 races).
CC’s Pal is the only other who might rate; she has won at 9 furlongs, longer than the other horses have, tho this race is just 6.5 furlongs. Neither CC’s Pal nor Nicole H. worked out before this race. Nicole H. went from a 91 to a 100 score in her last race on 5/26, likely to bounce.
Selections : Belle Of The Hall (early morning line value of 8-1), Nicole H, CC’s Pal.

at Betfair Hollywood Park (I haven’t gotten used to typing Betfair yet): Californian Stakes

Game On Dude comes out of a terrible 12th place finish in the G1 Dubai World Cup 3/31. Well suited to the 9 furlong distance, and has won at 10 furlongs (2010 Santa Anita Handicap). Multiple G1 victories. Morning Line won last year’s Carter Handicap, also G1. Shares the best winning Brisnet at BHP with a 104 win, which was in her last race, a Grade 2 race, 5/5. Prayer For Relief finished in that race to him. Both also earned best all-weather Brisnet numbers of this field, a 103. Both horses could bounce from these efforts, having gained sharply in Brisnet from their prior races. Yet Prayer For Relief just pushed through his 3YO best (100) and he might actually be improving, suggesting great form. He also has best jockey/trainer combo of Bejarano (29%) and Baffert (42%). Kettle Corn, the lone dead closer seems to have the fastest pace of these, in the money last 5 races.
Selections: Prayer For Relief, Kettle Corn, Morning Line. No value here.
Last 3 are at Churchill Downs, under the lights.
Winning Colors Stakes
Good Deed forged lifetime top in her last effort, the 8 Belles Stakes, last month. Still lunder influence of prior effort to that, a 98, Both races pushed past her 2YO best of 97. She led in the 8 Belles until the stretch, finished 2nd. Gleaming is the best in class, winning a 118k statebred race for fillies last year. Beat The Blues could bounce from her last race, moving from an 86 to a 98 (Carousel Stakes win last time out). 2nd in last year’s version of this race, losing by a neck, and posting best Brisnet on this track of this field, a 102. Honey Chile is easily best in form: This sprinter was caught in deep stretch last 2 races. Jockey CJ Lanerie has worked with trainer Wayne Catalano twice in last 60 days, and has won 1, in the money both times. ROI: +2.30. Page Springs is another sprinter who lost speed duels in her last 2 races. She might bounce down from an 85 Brisnet in her last race. Lifetime 5 wins in 7 races, winning first 5 races. Island Bound also with good ROI angle: jockey Leandro Goncalves has worked 10 races with trainer Ian Wilkes, winning 4, while being in the money 6 times. ROI: +7.26 Has won at 7 furlongs. Also winning at 7 furlongs is Fortune Play. She appears to have the fastest speed numbers to her run style in this field.
Track bias for 6 furlongs on dirt here at CD favore pure speed, winning 51% during the meet, and 44% this week. This gives an advantage to Good Deed, Honey Chile, and Page Springs.
Selections: Fortune Play, Honey Chile, Beat the Blues. Pretty good value in this race.

Aristides Stakes:
Global Power has the only route wins of the field, which may help in regard to running 6 furlongs. Noble’s Promise is the defending stakes winner, and owns the only Graded stakes victory of the field. Also gets best jockey/trainer combo of CJ Lanerie (24%) and Ken McPeek (18%).

Will’s Wildcat won last year’s Jimmy V Stakes on this track with a 111 score, best of the field at CD. Comes out of the G2 Churchill Downs Stakes as well. Whiskey Rebellion is fresh off reclaim by Akiko Gothard, very positive angle re form. While under Gothard’s initial care, he was 1st, then 4th, then claimed by Amalio Garcia, winning 3 straight after an initial 7th place effort. Also..a risk at bouncing, going from 96 to lifetime best 104 in last 2 races, actually 3rd straight increase in Brisnet, all done at Mountaineer. No works since that 104 effort 4/24. Cash Refund was 2nd for much of his last race but didn’t kick in the stretch. He does own great speed figures for his mid-race style, usually in the triple-digits.
Selections: Cash Refund, Whiskey Rebellion, Noble’s Promise, as I call for 2 huge value horse to finish ahead of a favorite.
Early Times Mint Julep Handicap:
Bizzy Caroline should have no problem handling 8.5 furlongs; this late pace runner had won at 9.5 furlongs previous, while the rest of the field hasn’t. Winner of last year’s G3 Regret Stakes. True horse-for-course, 2 wins in 3 life races at CD, best Brisnet of 101 here in the aforementioned Regret. Artemus Kitten scored a 100 2 races back in the Bayou Handicap at Fair Grounds…just past her 3YO best of 95. Bounced off that effort with a 79 in an optional claim 80k race at Keeneland. I am suspecting she’s still in the influence of exploding to 100 and should bounce up again. Heavenly Landing won a G3 race earlier this year at Gulfstream, running in Graded company last 4 races. Best jockey/trainer combo in CJ Lanerie (again!) and Ed Kenneally (29 win %). Might bounce from her 97 effort in a G2 race last month. Hard Seven comes out of a G2 race in April, finishing 3rd. Ravi’s Song has 2 different ROI angles worth looking at: Jockey Mena has worked with trainer Carl Bowman on 3 races in last 60 days, with 1 win. ROI: +6.73. Also, Bowman has run 23 horses this year, winning 17%, in the money 26% for a barely break-even score of +2.01. Snow Top Mountain won a G3 event in February at Gulfstream 2 races back. She has best turf Brisnet number of the field, a 105 in that G3 at Gulfstream. She has the best pace numbers for her dead closer style of the field.
Selections: Snow Top Mountain, Bizzy Caroline, Heavenly Landing. Decent race to play.
Not wagering $ on these races!

Next week I’ll give you my analysis of the entire Belmont card for Belmont Stakes Day. I’ll also reveal some early trends, should any pop up, in my hunt for triple-digit exactas.