Lolo and Tebow?

A compatible match, perhaps?
Let’s look via biorhythms:

Per facade.com ‘s biorhythm charts it looks to be a physical compatibility rate of 79%, emotional 14%, mental 35%.  Overall score: 43%. On the low side of compatibility. Worse than give-and-take…there’s hardly any middle ground, tho they have the same athletic and health acumen.  Together they would not be able to face the world with an understanding of their role in it. Probably terrible decision-makers. 

2012 Preakness Stakes analysis

Going horse-for-horse in the analysis for this year’s Preakness:
TIGER WALK has 4 straight Brisnet numbers in the 90’s, slowly peaking at 96 in his 4th place finish last time out. That race was the Wood Memorial on 4/7. In his recent races he’s run 3- and 4-wide, with good late drives. Has not yet won in Graded company. Makes 3rd straight jockey change, increases in distance by .5 furlong. ROI angle in his favor: Trainer Ignacio Correas has run 44 horses shipping from other tracks. These horses have won 34% of the time, with 50% in the money. ROI: +2.14. He just might be coming into best form here.

TEETH OF THE DOG is one of 2 horses with outstanding pedigree built for winning at Pimlico.(Bluegrass Cat/Deputy Reality, out of Deputy Minister) He has 4 lifetime races, 3 at Gulfstream, then finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial. He’s an mid-race type who has never finished out of the money but is rather depedent on the pace for his success. Also moving up .5 furlong for this race. Forged a new lifetime best of 98 in the Wood Memorial, 3rd straight time he’s forged.

PRETENSION is the other horse with great pedigree. (Bluegrass Cat, Main Streetin, out of Street Cry) He himself just ran here 2 weeks ago, winning the Canonero II 50k stakes with a late duel. Had a rather off race in the Illinois Derby before this, then runs in the 80s and 90s in all other lifetime starts. Stretches a full furlong out. Risks a bounce from his 90 score in last race after posting a 77 prior to that one. No works since last race. Best jockey/trainer combo here in Javier Santiago and Christopher Grove.

***********
Horses in posts 4 through 7 are helped to a degree by the track bias. Here they are:
ZETTERHOLM has the pace angle…2 triple-digit Brisnet number for this late closer, and a pair of overall 94s in his last 2 races. Stretches out 1.5 furlongs and meeting Graded horses for first time, having previously raced against state-bred in NY upon Richard Dutrow’s claim. Winner of 3 straight.
WENT THE DAY WELL, 4th in the KY Derby, forged new lifetime best of 105. No works since that race.
CREATIVE CAUSE, 5th in the KY Derby, winner of the San Felipe, Norfolk and Best Pal Stakes. Could well bounce from his 105 in the Derby ahead of his 97 in the Santa Anita Derby. Still hasn’t approached his maiden victory lifetime best of 107. No works since the KY Derby. Another recovery horse here; After layoff and starting his 3YO campaign, he scored 3 straight 102s, then the 97, then the 105.
BODEMEISTER was tremendous in the KY Derby, quite game, really. I have to like that he lost only in the final yards and should handle this distance well. No works since that race. 4th straight new lifetime high Brisnet with a 106, very consistent with worst race a 93 in his maiden debut. Alternating 1st and 2nd place finishes in all 5 races. Winner of the Arkansas Derby. He actually has a good edge in this race from the track bias as its favoring his strong sprinter style and middle posts.
**************************************
DADDY NOSE BEST is the one horse who has just pushed past his 2YO best with a 101 in the Sunland Derby back in March. He then earned just a 95 in the KY Derby.
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER won the derby forging a new lifetime best Brisnet of 108. This improvement over his 98 in the Santa Anita Derby suggests he could well bounce. Only horse to win at 10 furlongs from this field. No works since the KY Derby.
OPTIMIZER also could bounce from his weak effort in the KY Derby, a 95 Brisnet number. Previous race was an 82 in the Arkansas Derby. This dead closer type appears to be too slow for this race. ROI angle: Jockey Corey Nakatani has worked with trainer D. Wayne Lukas in 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 1 race, for an ROI of +9.07.
COZZETTI comes out of a 4th in the Arkansas Derby, showing a mild late run rally. Spotty efforts and rather tired in his last 4 races. Not enough class to compete for win here.
My top 4 selections for the Preakness are:
Pretension
Zetterholm
Tiger Walk
I’ll Have Another
I plan to use the value horses among these 4 in win bets, and exactas in all combos with each other.

Preakness Day stakes analysis

Now for a look at the Preakness Day races. In this post I’m targeting all the stakes races outside of the run for the Black-Eyed Susans. Preakness Stakes analysis will follow in a separate post.
All selections are made before early and late scratches occur. I will update these posts when changes occur that affect my selections.
Also: I plan to use exactas in all directions in my top 3 selections per race. For the Preakness I’ll use the top 4. I’ll also play win bets on any horse that may go off at worse than 5-1. Here we go!
Race 3: Gallorette Handicap
Morning-line favorite Zagora has run consistenty in Graded races, winning the G1 Diana last year. This dead closer has won 3 of her last 5 races. Idle Talk has won her last 4 and is horse-for-course: 4 runs over the Pimlico track, last start was a win in the Dahlia, with a Brisnet of 80. Best lifetime score here is an 86.Baltimore Belle has the best jockey/trainer combo (Pimentel/Trombetta).   
Track bias helps nearly all the horses in some way, tho the two that may get the most help are Idle Talk and Laughing, who are late runners and break from posts 4 and 7.
Selections: Zagora, Idle Talk, Baltimore Belle.

Race 6: Chick Lang Stakes.
Lemon Juice had the most valuable win in the field, a 100k race last autumn. He also comes out of a 40k race on this track, and an 87 Brisnet number. He’s the only horse with Pimlico experience of the 8 running! He’s also one of three horses who have won beyond the scheduled 6 furlong distance (He Can Run, and Mandorla are the others). Further, he has the best jockey/trainer combo in the field (Franklin, Kobiskie). Scaramanga is the fastest horse of the field. He has depended on 3-wide runs to be competitive and win in all 3 lifetime starts, all in Florida. Laurie’s Rocket is in best form of the field. He ran a 96 in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time out (4/7); prior to that an 87 Brisnet in the G3 Southwest at the same track. Likely to bounce from that effort but his 96 actually pushes him just past his 2YO best of 94. He may well break through in this race.
Also consider the aforementioned He Can Run adn Mandorla re distance, and Il Villano, who also has good form (strong jockey/trainer ROI, comes out of a pace duel).
Selections: Lemon Juice, Scaramanga, Laurie’s Rocket.
RACEDAY UPDATE: Lemon Juice is an early scratch.  No horse with Pimlico experience in the race. Innocent Man moves into the picture as having the best class profile in the race.
Updated selections: Laurie’s Rocket, Scaramanga, Innocent Man.
Race 7: OK, so I’m sneaking in a 43k allowance race to handicap…
Fastest horse for her pace-type in the field is the sprinter Hidden Joy. Comes out of a pair of 4th place finishes on this track. Lucky Holly is one of three horses who have top valued wins (25k level). She and Favored Lady own the top Brisnet number at this track, an 81. Lucky Holly is just off that effort, while Favored Lady scored this number a year ago.
Track bias is heavily divided for turf routes at the meet. The track seems to favor closing-type horses (Magical Merry, Lucky Holly, Distorted Disciple), and split re post positions 4 on down.
Form is pointing mainly to two horses: Distorted Disciple. After a layoff, and posting a 65, she then went down to 54, then up to 71. This ‘recovery’ pattern is a good signal for future success. She did win her next race and break maiden in the process with a 71. Jockey Alvarado and trainer Hamilton Smith hope to catch lightining in a bottle, having combined on one race together in the last 60 days, winning it in the process. Best jockey/trainer combo in the race is Pimentel/Trombetta,handling Dixie Shoes.
Selections: Hidden Joy, Distorted Disciple, Lucky Holly, as I think value will be very strong here.
RACEDAY UPDATE: Dixie Shoes is an early scratch. This gives Favored Lady’s connections the better jockey/trainer combo remaining (Boyce/Tullock).
New selections: Hidden Joy, Distorted Disciple, Favored Lady.
Race 9: James W. Murphy Stakes.
Done Talking, winner of the Illinois Derby, was one of my top 5 picks in the Run For the Roses; he would finish 14th in heavy traffic. He and Easy Crossing have won at 9 furlongs, better than the other horses. Fastest in the field tho is Skyring, with great triple digit 2nd-call numbers, and comes out of a 75k optional claim win at Churchill, ran on Derby Day. Before that were disappointing efforts in 2 Grade 3 races.
Track bias for mile races on turf across the meet have favored late-pace horses (Gold Megillah only qualifier here) and the rail horse (Easy Crossing).
Form: Done Talking is strong here, slightly ahead of Two Months Rent. Done Talking had set a lifetime best Brisnet of 92 at the Illinois Derby, just past her 2YO best of 90 last autumn. Then he had his off race in the Derby with the predicted bounce. With no works since the Derby, I think Done Talking is in great shape to win here. Two Months Rent does have some edge having the jockey/trainer combo of Pimentel and Toner.
Selections: Done Talking, Skyring, and Two Months Rent, as more value is being sought here.
Race 10: DuPont Distaff
Longshot horse Strike The Moon won the Charles Town Oaks last fall, a 400k ungraded race. No horse in the field has a Graded stakes win. Strike The Moon has the only win over this track, a 94 Brisnet. Daring Reality, dead closer, has the fastest overall pace here..solid triple digit Brisnet numbers in the stretch while racing in Graded compay, yet no better than 3rd. Her last win was a year ago. Love And Pride has the only win at 9 furlongs of this field, while most of the others have won at the scheduled 8.5 furlongs today.
Track bias is scattered between 7 horses, no real edge.
Form: Catch A Thief is another example of a ‘recovery horse’. After layoff, ran a 93 in a Graded race, then put up numbers of 90, then 87, thena 98 in the Plugged Nickel Stakes last time out, before a layoff of 45 days. Her 98 score is below her lifetime best but still a great number. A good ROI angle here too: Jockey Leparoux has worked 5 races with trainer Hills in the last 60 days. 2 wins, 3 in the money, for a positive ROI of +4.60.
Fastest in this field is Strike The Moon.
Best jockey/trainer combo of the race is Strike The Moon, once again the combo of Pimentel (winning at a 19% clip) and Trombetta.
Selections: Catch A Thief, Strike The Moon, Daring Reality.

Race 11: Dixie Stakes:
Good competitive field for this one. Air Support, along with Forte Dei Marmi have both won at 12 furlongs, beyond this race’s 10 furlong test. Air Support, winner of the Virginia Derby last year, is one of 4 horses with Grade 2 victories. He is also the fastest horse to his style, being a dead closer. After his win in the VA Derby, he was on a 9 month layoff, then failed to fire a stretch run in a 67k allowance race. Hudson Steele has the fastest win of this field at Pimlico, a 97 in his last start, the Henry Clark.

Track bias: For the meet, turf route races have favored late-closers (Casino Host, Hudson Steele, Boxeur Des Rues) and the rail (Vanquisher).
Form: No one impresses me here with pace/form angles. Avenida Paseo, tho, has a great jockey/trainer combo in Castellano Jr. and Corrales
Selections: Air Support, Hudson Steele, Avenida Paseo
Preakness Stakes analysis in the next post!

Pimlico 5/18 stakes race analysis

This post focuses on the stakes races at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susans Day. I have decided on wagering these races.

Race 6: Skipat Stakes.
Bold Affair has a excellent edge on this field of 7, tho the ML odds are already down to 2-1. She is prevalent in all variables. She’s already won beyond this race’s distance; best win was a 200k race last autumn. Comes out of a 107 Brisnet score on this track, best of this field. That race gives this jockey-trainer combo of Castellano and Wolfendale, an ROI at the very basic profit margin of +2.00. Of course that’s just one race out of the last 60 days. The only other horse who can threaten is Valiant Passion, an early-mid race runner who has sharp numbers in that stage of her races. Ran just once at 3, making 2nd start at 4, off of a 6-f race where she led until the stretch on this track. Also consider: Romantic Cuvee and Red’s Round Table, who each have won beyond 6 furlongs; the latter comes out of a G2 race.
Selections: Bold Affair, Valiant Passion, Red’s Round Table

RACEDAY update: Red’s Round Table is scratched, making this a two-horse race between my selections. I’ll toss in the public favorite at post time with Bold Affair and Valiant Passion for exacta bets.
Race 9: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
Real challenging to handicap this one. I have 3 contenders amidst the 12 runners: FIDDLERS PATRIOT I chose mainly because the 6YO has the fastest Brisnet numbers for his race style (early-pressing) in the field. Cactus Son has the longest win of the field (winning at 7.5 furlongs). He also has major edge in form; he broke through his 3YO best number on 2/25 in a 75k stakes race. He’s still under influence of that run, his 2nd last run to the present. He’s also running for 2nd time under reclaim from trainer Kenny Smith. His last race was on Derby Day at Churchill, a G3 sprint. Good inside runs in his last several races, with Brisnet numbers in the 90s. Trainer did not work him out since the race on 5/5.
I also like Ben’s Cat who won this race last year with a 110, best Brisnet at Pimlico of this field. He also is the one horse with a Graded stakes victory of the 12 horses.
Four other horses also worth looking at: Birdie Beats Par has the track bias to his advantage. So far in the meet, for 5 furlongs on turf, winners have mainly come from dead sprinters on the rail, and this horse is exactly that type and in that position.   Disco Dandy, Steady Warrior and Ju Jitsu Jax are the other 3 pure sprinters in the field. Ju Jitsu Jax also has the trainer/jockey connection of Carmouche and Wolfendale.
Selections are Fiddlers Patriot, Cactus Son, Ben’s Cat.
RACEDAY update: Birdie Beats Par and Steady Warrior, two of 4 horses I valued best re track bias, are scratched. This does not currently change my 3 selections.

Race 10: The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Mamma Kimbo is the fastest filly of the bunch, based on 2 lifetime races and winning the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. She also benefits from the track bias. Runners in route races on dirt have favored sprinters all through the meet, and especially within posts 4 through 7 (In Lingerie, in post 7, also fits in both categories). She also managed the fastest pace numbers of this field. Plum has the fastest Brisnet number at the track in the field. That was a 91, scored in her most recent race. Plum has the best jockey/trainer combo in A. Castellano and R. Jenkins. (Plum also has a middle post in this race. Best in form is Wildcat’s Smile. Her current pace suggests she could move forward from her 91 score, a win in a 25k race. She just pushed forward from her 2YO best, an 89. She might bounce tho, as her prior race was an 84. ROI angle is interesting too: Rosie Napravnik and trainer Galluscio have worked together on 3 races, with 1 win, twice in the money for an ROI of +13.60. Also to consider: Oaks Lily and In Lingerie, who benefit from the track bias, and Disposablepleasure, who has already won at 9 furlongs, and owns a Grade 2 victory.
Selections are Mamma Kimbo, Plum, Wildcat’s Smile.

Race 11: The Very One Stakes.

Well Deserved is a horse befitting her name here. Fastest horse to her type in the field of 11. A clean sweep in the form category too. Based on pace numbers, she forged a lifetime best of 98 in her last start, slightly ahead of her 94 as a 4YO. There’s positive risk of her bouncing in speed from the race too, but mares don’t often bounce as often as fillies. Sensible Lady has the fastest winning Brisnet number here, a 100, 2 races back in a 25k allowance. Inspired has run a series of ungraded stakes races, putting together a 3 win race streak, then a 4th last time out. Weeper has good jockey/trainer combo (Chaves/Stites best combined win %).

Track bias is in favor of sprinters; of these, Inspired, Bounding Bi, Halo Hollie and High Quality all fit. The rail may also be the place to win from. Sensible Lady has the railin this race.
Selections: Well Deserved, Sensible Lady, Inspired.
Race 12: Pimlico Special:
Cherokee Artist has the best pace numbers of the field…triple digit Brisnet numbers in the last 3 races for this early-midpace 7YO. Last race, a 50k race at Pimlico he won with a 107, best number in the field. Eighttofasttocatch has the best jockey/trainer combo in the field (Russell/Keefe). Toby’s Corner (Wood Memorial) and Hymn Book (Donn) are the two horses with Grade 1 victories.
Track bias: Dirt route races at Pimlico currently favor posts 4 through 7, so a slight edge to Cherokee Artist, Nehro, Mission Impazible and Yawanna Twist.
Selections: Cherokee Artist, Eighttofasttocatch, Hymn Book, Toby’s Corner.

Race 13: Hilltop Stakes
Anakindalika has made just one start in the US, and 2 in GB. This sprinter won that debut maiden race with a strong first call number of 99 and overall 80. Seanchai has the Carmouche-Delacour jockey/trainer combo which is the best of this field in terms of win percentage. She also is one of two horses to win beyond a mile in this field. Theatricality’s 83 Brisnet 2 races back while breaking her maiden is the fastest on this track of the field.
Track bias for 8.5 furlongs on turf is favoring late runners. Fillies in this race include Coup, Appealing Cat, Seanchai and Ainsley.
Selections: Anakindalika, Theatricality, Seanchai.
RACEDAY update: Anakindalika is scratched. In her place I am inserting Anna Sophia as top selection.

With my top 3 selections I prefer to use them in all exacta combos with each other, and win bets on any of them who may run at worse than 5-1.
I will update this post once tomorrow’s early scratches are finalized.

Belmont Park 5/12 full card analysis

Looking at the full Belmont card today. Ditching the dosage profile analysis, which adds at least a whole hour to the analysis. No time for that today. Not wagering $ today; I’m saving that for Preakness Day next Saturday. Look for analysis of the Pimlico card next Friday with updates on Saturday where required.

race 1: JETER has the class advantage, winner of a 50k maiden race at Aqueduct in March. Also has best jockey/trainer win % combo (Dominguez-Richard Dutrow). HALF NELSON has the fastest pace numbers of the field; he’s an early-mid pace type, coming out of a strong 6f race at Aqueduct first off layoff, strong competitive horse. THE PRIZE FIGHTER has the best Brisnet number for Belmont of this field, a 92, scored in his first start last July. Also consider MASTER SPLASH, winner at 6.5 furlongs, .5 furlong longer than today’s 6f distance.

Selections are Jeter, Half Nelson, The Prize Fighter.

race 2: BIG JOHN B has absolute form edge here: Jockey/trainer combo of Dominguez and Maker have 5 races together in last 60 days, 1 win, 3 in the money for ROI of +5.08. This combo also best combined win % of the meet thus far. Forged lifetime best Brisnet of 85 last time out. Fastest pace numbers belong to DENDRITE; this sprinter seems to tire out in the stretch with 2 8th place finishes along with a 3rd in the last 3 races. SUPER SATURDAY has best run at Belmont, with a 94 Brisnet in a maiden race last autumn. Throw out STRESSING who is moving up from 4 lifetime sprint races to this 8.5 furlong race. Belmont punishes sprinters moving up to routes.
Selections: Big John B, Dendrite, Super Saturday.

race 3: 5-horse field for the You and I Stakes. HARDENED WILDCAT is a dead closer, and the fastest horse in this field. One 2nd and 3 wins in his last 4 races. TIGHTENED TOUCHDOWN has top jockey/trainer combo in Cohen and Jacobsen. CURRENCY SWAP won last year’s Hopeful (G1) stakes. Also consider BRIAN, a winner in a mile race last time out, cuts back to 7f here.
Selections: Hardened Wildcat, Tightened Touchdown, Currency Swap.

race 4: ALARMIST comes out of his maiden 35k victory. Best Brisnet on this track too, an 88 in his 4YO debut in January. Also has the Cohen/Jacobsen combo, best of this field. D’SAUVAGE has the form edge in the race. Still under influence of a lifetime best 90 Brisnet from a 3/18 52k allowance race at Aqueduct. Trainer Chatterpaul has run 17 horses this year who are moving down 2 classes, with 35% wins, 65% in the money for an ROI of +3.13. Jockey Studart has 8 races with Chatterpaul in the last 60 days, sporting 1 win, 2 in the money, for an ROI of +2.88. Fastest pace horse is the early-mid pace horse RUSE. Last two races saw him run 3 wide in 5.5 furlong races at Fair Grounds but didn’t kick. Also consider MR.HOPPS and GYPSY WARRIOR, winners at 1 mile 70 yards, both lowering to 6.5furlongs here.
Selections: Alarmist, D’Sauvage, Ruse.
Don
race 5: MIA POPPY with best form here: Nearly wired the field last race, a 65k maiden, losing lead in the late stretch. Jockey Junior Alvarado has teamed up with trainer Dominick Schettino for 7 races in the last 60 days, winning 2, in the money in 4, for an ROI of +5.20. Best jockey/trainer combo in the race belongs to POST PATTERN, as trainer Schettino also aligns with jockey Dominguez. Fastest horse here is ALARMED NDANGEROUS, dead closing type with 3 straight 2nd place finishes, all at Aqueduct, dangerous in the stretch for certain. Also consider: KNOCK QUIETLY, best Brisnet number at Belmont, a 78, tho he hasn’t reached this number here in over a year. Throw out Mr. Algebra, making the sprint-to-route move here.
Selections: Mia Poppy, Post Pattern, Alamed NDangerous

race 6: Genuine Devotion Stakes.
DONTBESHY I’LL BUY has the best pace numbers here from races at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, comes off a 3rd place finish in the G2 Distaff Handicap, good tactical horse. ULTIMATE CLASS scored a 96 winning Brisnet number at Belmont in the Stormy West Stakes last fall, best number of this field. Best jockey/trainer combo here is with MISS LIBERTY, handled by jockey Lezcano and trainer Clement..makes his 2nd US start. Also one of four horses who have won at one mile; all cut back to 6 furlongs here. Also consider TRIX IN THE CITY, also a mile winner and winner of the 80k Delarose stakes last August; possibly top class of the field. Others who won at a mile here are Lunar Mist and Sharnberry.
Selections: Dontbeshy I’ll Buy, Ultimate Class, Miss Liberty. Very good value here.

UPDATE 200pm EDT: Dontbeshy I’ll Buy just announced as scratched.  New selections are Ultimate Class, Miss Liberty, Trix In The City.

race 7: LEROIDESSIOUX possiby best bet of the day. Love his form: Best Brisnet number of the field here at Belmont, a 77, scored last time out in a 25k race. That race saw him duel to the finish, losing by 1.5 lengths. The 77 is his new lifetime best, just past his 3YO best of 74. No works since that April 27 race. Could bounce from this number, as his prior race to this was a 67, but willing to give benefit of the doubt here. JADE GLORY AGAIN has best jockey/trainer combo in C. Velasquez and Rice. Fastest pace number belongs to BUSTARELLA, dead closer type who’s never been near the leaders in lasta few races. Switches jockey and moves up from 6f to 7f here.
Selections: Leroidessioux, Jade Glory Again, Bustarella.

race 8: Very competitive field! Fastest horse of the field is early-middle runner SHMOOZ TALKER tho has had some trouble firing late in his consistent 6furlong races.RAYNICK’S JET owns a winning 99 Brisnet number at Belmont, best of this field, tho this was over a year ago. He is helped by the current track bias as current dirt races of 6 furlongs do help out post positions 4 through 7. HE’S A SCROOGE is running 2nd time from reclaim by Neal Terracciano; never was close in first race off the reclaim, no works since that effort. Also consider: Antenna, with best trainer/jockey combo (Dominguez/Tony Dutrow), Haystack Needle (post position bias, running in stall 5), and Fulton Street, a 40k allowance winner, could be best class of this field.
Selections: Shmooz Talker, Raynick’s Jet, He’s A Scrooge.

race 9: PETER PAN STAKES (grade 2)
Two scratches here are Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog, whom I believe are being pointed to the Preakness. Meanwhile: BIG SCREEN has best distance win of the field, winning at 9 furlongs. Best in form here too: Pushed through his 2YO best Brisnet # with a 96 last time out in the Calder Derby on 4/14. Could bounce from this number as his previous number to this was an 85. Obviously forged lifetime best with the 96 number, and also served as his recovery race. First race off layoff he ran a 92 at Gulfstream last December, stayed down south to run races from 85 to 91 scores, then the 96 last time, now comes back Northeast for the first time. STREET LIFE, dead closer, has fastest pace of this field, 6th in the Wood Memorial (DRF says he ‘flattened’ out in pace), then 2 wins prior to that. Best jockey/trainer combo here is with MASTER RICK (Nakatani-Asmussen). Also worth a look: Right To Vote, best Brisnet number in the field at Belmont, 3rd in last year’s Champagne Stakes, scoring a 91. Moves up 2 furlongs for this race, so a very weak contender. The Lumber Guy is out of a G2 win in the Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct.
Selections: Big Screen, Street Life, Master Rick. Upset special.

race 10: Just 2 horses have any real interest for me here: Anaphylaxis has the best Brisnet # on this track, a 63 scored last year at this time. Current form is very good, as he’s off races with scores of 85 and 82. He exploded with a 78 3 races back, just past his 3YO best of 73. He’s still on the influence of the 78 score ran on 3/22. No works since his last race on 4/28. SOLENGO has one race, scoring a weak 38 Brisnet but appears to be a dead sprinter, with a first call number of 94, best of this field. He did press issue in his one race at 8.5 furlongs but faded badly afterwards. Cuts down to 7 furlongs here. Also helping his cause is the jockey/trainer combo of Dominguez and H. James Bond.
I’d use these 2 along with any large favorite in this race.

Kentucky Derby 2012 analysis

Even for the amateur handicappers among us, one has to know the three unique variables that make KY Derby handicapping nearly impossible:
*20 horses. Where else besides some steeplechase racing in the UK will you find fields this large? How can a horse handle traffic? We can look at fields of 12 to 14 with some, but a field this size presents its own pace issues.
*10 furlongs. Very typically, no horse entering a Derby has ever raced at this distance.
*Track bias. As in, not enough to measure. I like to measure bias from the meet’s and meet’s weekly total in a race. Since the Derby is always running in the first week that Churchill starts up, there’s nothing much to rely on.
On we go to the analysis, horse-by-horse.
My wagering strategy will follow this at the end of the post.
DADDY LONG LEGS has the longest route win of this field, 1-3/16 (ahead of a bunch of others who have won at 9 furlongs). This was in his last start, the UAE Derby in Dubai. Borrowing the DRF numbers, it looks like he sharply improved from his lone US race that came before this, running 12th in the BC Juvenile last year. He also forged a new lifetime best, as I make comparisons to both his Beyer and the UK equivalent Racing Post numbers. Further the UAE Derby was a slight improvement on his 2YO best effort in GB. This horse is one of three I feel is in great form.
OPTIMIZER forged a lifetime best 2 races back in the Rebel Stakes (G2). His 96 Brisnet also soundly improved over his 91 at 2YO, giving him explosive form. He also has the recovery line; ran an 88 starting his 3YO campaign right after layoff, then down to 85, then the 96. He predictably bounced to an 82 in his last race, the Arkansas Derby. I generally take a stand against horses who have recovered in pace after layoff. Outside of the closing finish in the Rebel, he’s not been near the lead in any of his starts for much of his career outside his first 3
TAKE CHARGE INDY is the winner of the FL Derby. ROI angle: Jockey Borel and trainer Patrick Byrne worked together on one race prior, scoring a win, good for a +15.40. This is related to the horse’s FL Derby win. Paired up Brisnet numbers are not a very good sign, as it can suggest a bounce, but I have no extra evidence that he will. For what it’s worth, he’s got one of the better pedigrees going; a colt by AP Indy and Take Charge Lady (Dehere).

UNION RAGS everyone seems to like. Doesn’t impress me all that much tho. He won the Champagne Stakes at two, then posted 3 triple digit Brisnet numbers, starting with a 103 in the BC Juvenile here. He’s matched but hasn’t surpassed this effort yet.Great pedigree: Dixie Union-Tempo (Gone West).

DULLAHAN won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last year, and the Blue Grass, where he forged a new lifetime best of 102. In his prior race he surpassed his 2YO best with a 98, running 2nd in the Palm Beach. I do like him, but not outstanding of this large field.
BODEMEISTER is attempting to buck the long trend of horses who have never ran at two among Derby winners. He won the Arkansas Derby in his last race. Improved Brisnet numbers in each race, topping out at 105. Always at or near the lead in each call in each start. This sprinter is mighty dangerous. I’ve rated his pedigree as the best of the 20-horse field. Empire Maker-Untouched Talent (Storm Cat).
ROUSING SERMON has nothing outstanding for contention here. Last won in October, ran decently in 5 straight Graded events but only twice in the money. He’s often made very wide runs and has not always rallied. Also sports great pedigree: Lucky Pulpit-Rousing Again (Awesome Again)
CREATIVE CAUSE won the Norfolk Stakes at two. Ships from Santa Anita for this one. Late running style has served him very well in each of his 8 starts, never out of the money. After a 107 in his first maiden race, he’d run only as well as a 102 in 3 straight, and is off a 97, running 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby.
TRINNIBERG is one of the automatic throwouts. He paired up in his last 2 starts with triple digit numbers, sharply ahead of an 80 to finish his 2YO year. He’s also never run past 7 furlongs. ROI for the 2 races that his jockey/trainer combo of Martinez and Parboo worked on, both wins, is +8.95.

DADDY NOSE BEST enters with great form here. Winning the Sunland Derby, scored a 101 Brisnet, just ahead of his 100 in the BC Juvenile Turf here last year. He does run the risk of bouncing, as he improved from a 92 before the Sunland Derby. This is just the sort of angle that I have found winners at. Switches jockey from Leparoux to Gomez also.

ALPHA had previously earned the explosive pace form for running a 100 in the Count Fleet, his 3YO debut. Since that race was 4 months ago, he won’t be under that influence here. He did match that number next in the Withers, then forged with a 101 in the Wood Memorial. Has he plateaued? Possibly. Tends to run wide. Switches jockey from Dominguez to Maragh.
PROSPECTIVE is the horse I am predicting will finish last. Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, his best Brisnet came in that race and a 6th place finish in the Blue Grass last time out. Upon layoff, starting his 3YO campaign, he started with a 91, then a 90, then the pair of 95s in the last two. Horses recovering in form after layoff, along with a pair of higher numbers absolutely suggests a downturn for the next. He does happen to have very good genes tho: Malibu Moon-Spirited Away (Awesome Again)
WENT THE DAY WELL is another whose raced overseas, and for whom I’ve had to study using the DRF numbers instead of Brisnet. 2 maiden races in UK, then 3 progressively faster races in the southern US. He appeared to have forged a new lifetime best in his 3YO debut, then a slight downtick when shortening distance a bit, finally breaking maiden. Then was entered in the Spiral (G3) winning that ,and forging a new life best. Recovery angle in play here along with that peak. Possible weaker effort here.

HANSEN won the BC Juvenile on this track, running a 105, best Brisnet number at Churchill of these horses. Blazing speed, fastest pace numbers to his style. Ran his quickest early fractions in the Blue Grass last time out, tho his purely fastest race was his win in the Gotham before this. Having nearly wired the field after losing to Dullahan by 1.25 lengths, I have to believe he will be ready to handle 10 furlongs, tho it may depend on how the pace unfolds.

GEMOLOGIST,undefeated in 5 starts, won the Wood Memorial in his most recent. Progressive higher Brisnet numbers in last 3 starts. Forged a new lifetime best in the Wood, and also still under influence of the explosive category, running a 98 in his 3YO debut. That allowance race improved on his maiden win, a 95.

EL PADRINO doesn’t have oustanding quality for this race. Forged lifetime best Brisnet, a 111 in his 3YO debut, then posted a 101 and 100 in his last 2 races. This late running horse can compete but probably outclassed here.
DONE TALKING has very good pedigree (Broken Vow-Dixie Talking, out of Dixieland Band). One of the three horses I like on form alone. Won the Illinois Derby last time out with a 92, surpassing his 2YO best of 90, and sharply above his last race, the Gotham, which was an 81. Very good value here to play with, as I think he will run past his 92 today.
SABERCAT, a late running horse, has good pedigree (Bluegrass Cat-Miner’s Blessing, out of Forty Niner). Ran 3rd in the Arkansas Derby in his last race, scoring a 94, and forged a new top, while also just surpassing his 2YO best. Just a modest improvement over his 8th place finish in the Rebel, which was a 90. With the pair of runs in the 90s, beyond runs in the 80’s, I’m not sure he will run any quicker today. Also seems to have some traffic issues.

I’LL HAVE ANOTHER won the 9 furlong Santa Anita Derby. Nothing huge in terms of form except that he had already showed explosive form in the Robert B Lewis Stakes in February, then paired up with the win at Santa Anita. His runs were 98 and 102, improving on his debut race, a 97, but also his ‘off’ race in the Hopeful, a 58. Has to get the right trip to prevail. I’m predicting he won’t run in the 90’s here.

LIAISON won the CashCall Futurity last year. Has the exploding form line, a 96 score in a 4th place finish in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, then bounced with an 87 in the SA Derby. Not sure whether he can bounce back. And of course he’s got the #20 post, which is impossible for Derby standards.
MY ADONIS will race in the #20 spot should there be a scratch. Won a 200k race last year, but has not been very competitive in 4 straight Graded races. Paired up strong numbers nevertheless running at 3 after layoff, with a 98 in the Holy Bull, then a 102 in the Gotham, bounced from this with a 91 in the Wood Memorial. Unsure how he may respond with the stretchout from 9 to 10 furlongs.
Here are my top 5 for the Derby:
Hansen
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Bodemeister
What I will do is focus on my top 5 selections and use them for exactas between each other, along with win bets for any horses that may run worse than 5-1.
Also here are the Future Wager bets I’ve already placed. If any of these horses run worse than the odds I’m locked into wagering for, I’ll place an extra win bet on them.
From pool 1:
Creative Cause 17-1
Hansen 26-1
Sabercat 34-1
From pool 2:
Dullahan 26-1
Gemologist 231
I’ll Have Another 22-1
From pool 3:
Secret Circle 30-1 (not running)
Take Charge Indy 15-1
Optimizer 22-1
Daddy Nose Best 20-1
With scratches and other possible changes, my selections can change right along with them. I will edit and update these handicapping posts as situations warrant.
Last year I picked the winner out of Pool 3.
2 years ago, I picked, but did not wager, the exacta.
How will this turn out? I can’t wait!

2012 Kentucky Derby undercard analysis

This post focuses on the Derby Day stakes races before the big race itself.
I won’t be considering track bias or post position.

TWINSPIRES TURF SPRINT

Top dosage belongs to Great Mills (multi-stakes winner War Front and Oriental Glitter). Even those this is a 5 furlong race, I’m favoring 4 horses who have won at a mile: Santo Gato, Cactus Son, Stormy Going, and Amanecer De Oro. All those wins came at 2YO tho. Amanecer De Oro has the best class of the field. She won a 150k statebred event at Louisiana Downs last fall, and has run with mixed results since. Chamberlain Bridge has the best win at Churchill, a 102 going back years ago; 4 wins in 8 races here, 6 times in the money. Back to Amanecer De Oro, he has the best fastest speed to his early-pressing style, good competitive races in his last three and must be considered.
Form: Great Attack in the explosive category with his 103 score in a G3 race last time out,and improving on his 102 in last year’s Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. The 103 is a new lifetime best. No workouts for him since this race. Trainer Wesley Ward, in 59 graded stakes races this year, has won 8, in the money in 21, for an ROI of +2.08. Could go either way but not impressive. Great Mills is a similar case. He is likely to bounce after his lifetime best 111 from the G3 race last time out, which improved on his prior high 100 previous to that. He finished 2nd in the race but was just barely outfinished. Santo Gato is a throwout re form. In February he got the explosive line, a 95 lifetime best, improving on his 2YO high of 91. He had dueled well in this race, weakening in the stretch. Also earned the ‘recovery’ form line, reaching a new pace high since his prior layoff. Even tho he did come back last time out with a 92 in his 3rd straight optional claim race at Fair Grounds, I say he is due to fall below the 90s on this one. Best in form is Bridgetown, who makes his 5YO debut here. Off the reclaim by Todd Pletcher, he was outperformed in a stakes race in Ascot (UK), then shipped back home, won the Troy Stakes at Saratoga quite easily. There is the likelihood that he will bounce down from the 102 score here. Admittedly I don’t full performance stats for how he actually did at Ascot, but seeing that he ran 12th and 3 seconds slower for 5 furlongs than his prior race, it must have been a truly off race for him.

Selections right now are longshot Amanecer De Oro, Bridgetown (M/L fave), Chamberlain Bridge
CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES
Leading in dosage profile is Amazombie (multi-stakes winner Northern Afleet-Wilshe Amaze). Last year’s Preakness winner Shackeford factors re distance and stamina. These 2 horses, along with Smiling Tiger, have all won at the Grade 1 level. Will’s Wildcat has 3 wins in 4 races at CD, winning last year’s Jimmy V stakes with a 111 Brisnet number, best of this field. Best pace numbers belong to Hamazing Destiny. His early-press type led him to finish in the money last 2 races; it all depends on how he handles the traffic.
Form: No one impresses tho one horse I will throw out. Alma D’Oro was 2nd in the Skipaway in his last race, scoring a 108, a new lifetime best and broke through his 5YO best number as well. This was his 3rd race off layoff He improved on a 95 score in another Grade 3 beforehand. Just after the layoff he scored a 101 in a 100k race. With the classic ‘recovery’ line combined with the forged top, I will take a stand against him.
Selections: Hamazing Destiny, Will’s Wildcat, Shackleford. Good value in here.

CHURCHILL DISTAFF DIRT MILE

La Reine Lionne has best pedigree, a filly by Leroidesanimaux (sire of last year’s KY Derby winner Animal Kingdom) and an unraced daughter of Unbridled, Unbridled Lover. Marketing Mix has the longest distance win of the field, a 9 furlong race last fall in a Grade 3 race. Daisy Devine (Jenny Wiley) and Aruna (Spinster) both have Grade 1 victories. Aruna has the best Brisnet score at CD, a 104 for a 2nd place effort in a Grade 2 race a year ago. Her lone win at CD was the race prior to that. Hungry Island, dead closer, has the best pace numbers;out of the money just once in 11 races. She won 4 races, and then 4th and then 2 3rds for her last two.
Form: The longshot sprinter Annabel Lee has an edge here. She ran a 66 in a 150k race 2 races ago, then an 88 in a 58k allowance race. No workouts since that race. In that allowance race she was listed as 2nd but had actually led between calls. She could certainly bounce from the effort but the choice to not work her is interesting, and I have to like the effort she put in last race. Also:trainer David Schwartz has run 67 horses on turf, with 7 wins, and 20 in the money, for an ROI of +2.86. For route races, he has 74 starts, 6 wins, 22 in the money. ROI: +2.29.
Selections: Annabel Lee, Hungry Island, Aruna. Expect very good value here.
UPDATE 1115AM Saturday: With 3 scratches announced, here are revised selections: Marketing Mix, Hungry Island, La Reine Lionne. Not much value promised at this time. 

HUMANA DISTAFF STAKES
Best pedigree is to Salty Strike (renowned Canadian bred Smart Strike-Lake Huron). Sassy Image has the longest route win, 8.5 furlongs on this track in 2009. 4 horses have Grade 1 victories: Sassy Image, Groupie Doll, Switch, and Musical Romance. Musical Romance won last year’s BC Fillies/Mares Sprint on this track with a 106 score, best of the winning Brisnet numbers in this field. Top pace scores belong to Groupie Doll, a dead closing type.
Form: Hot Summer in positive form here; she carries the ‘bounce’ and ‘explosive’ pattern, running 2nd in a Grade 2 race last time out, improving from 79 to a 100 Brisnet. That score edges out her 3YO best of 99. Further, she led in the stretch in her last race, yielding late. The one horse I see in outright negative form is Magical Feeling, with, curiously, no workout since December, still under influence of a 105 Brisnet number she posted 3 races back in February. She does run consistently 90+ tho. Trainer Allen Iwinski has a great record with Graded stakes horses….winning 3 of 6, ROI of +18.13. Not going to extend benefit of doubt tho.
Selections: Hot Summer, Groupie Doll, Musical Romance.

WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC
Data Link with best pedigree (stakes winner War Front, and Database). Slim Shadey has the long route win of this field, 2 10 furlong wins back-to-back and a month apart, both at Santa Anita, following up with a 2nd place finish in a 12 furlong race on that track last time out. 4 horses have Grade 1 victories: Turallure, Get Stormy (3 in the last year), Data Link, and last year’s Blue Grass Stakes winner Brilliant Speed. Turallure is a dead closer who has 5 races here, all in the money. Her last race here, in the BC Mile, a 2nd place finish, earned her a 108, best of those who have raced at CD prior. Doubles Partner has the best pace numbers. He is also a dead closer, finding the money in his last 5 races. 2 races back he actually found most of his power halfway through a mile race and prevailed.

Form: Three horses have great form coming in. Turallure, entering his 6th consecutive Graded event, scored a lifetime best in the BC Mile, a 108, 2 races back. He briefly led in a G1 race last time out, only to lose by a neck to Data Link. Further: trainer Charles Lopresti has a good record with Graded stakes entries. He’s entered 32 horese, with 10 wins, 16 times in the money. ROI: +2.27.
Doubles Partner was 3rd in that race. Since that effort, he did not get a workout. He’s within the influence still of a victory at Gulfstream Park in March, with a 102 lifetime best, slightly outpointing his 4YO best of 101 one race (and 10 months!) prior. Papaw Bodie could possible bounce from his effort last time out, a 102 at Fair Grounds running 9 furlongs in a G2 race. That race is one he led in the stretch and then lost by a half-length. Prior race was a win at the same distance, tho that was 93; before that, another 102. Winner of 4 races before turning a 2nd place last time out. Jockey Rosario along with trainer Michael Maker have combined for 2 races in the last 60 days, winning 1, in the money in both. ROI: +3.00.
Negative form to dead closer Data Link. Even though he has some of the inherent ability to win, his pair of races in his last 3 without bouncing prior suggest he’s already plateaued and might not score fast numbers this race. Last 2 races were runs of 99 and 101, then there was the layoff before that, and then his 96 to end his 3YO year. All before this he was running in the 80s. Something to consider: Jockey Solis and trainer McGaughey have combined for 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 1. ROI: +7.07.
Selections are my 3 form horses: Doubles Partner, Turallure, and Papaw Bodie, whom edges out Slim Shadey here.

The selections here reflect my top 3 choices to win, not necessarily the running order of finish. I plan to use each horse in exactas with each other, and win bets on any horse who may go off at worse than 5-1.

KY Derby analysis in the next post.