Santa Anita race analysis, 4/22/12

I’ll be handicapping the final race day of the Santa Anita meet today. I have past performances for 8 fo the 10 races. I’m working on a new wrinkle of an angle: track/race bias stats. The stats determine what post positions and race-types win most at a track. I will use these stats to play an extra win bet if the horse is 6/1 or worse, and exacta under favorites or my top overall pick. , where I watch races, keep up-to-date numbers on these. They also have Profit Line indicators, suggesting overlays. For the time being I’m ignoring those but keeping watch for the future.
I look for these stats onBrisnet past performances, tho I imagine TwinSpires updates these quicker to the latest races.
Bear in mind I won’t be wagering these races, but I’ll give you my top 3 selections as they happen, on Twitter at @radiocblue

RACE 1: 3YO maiden fillies going 6 furlongs, none who have made more than 4 starts. LADY TEN has the best Brisnet speed number at this track, an 88, reached last time out. She also has best pedigree (Rock Hard Ten/Mismonique) DIXIE IN PINK has the best overall pace, saving all its strength for the stretch.

FORM: No one with a decided angle, positive or negative.
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Inconclusive for pace. Position suggests horses in posts 4 through 7 do best…so give an extra edge to DIXIE IN PINK, LADY TEN, and also to first time starter PLAYFUL HUMOR.
Looks like just a 2-horse race thus far, not much value at all.
RACE 2: 6 furlong allowance, optional-claim, $80k. 5 horses go at it.
GUN BOAT has best dosage in this short field (Congrats/White Ruffle).INNOCENT MAN has won at 6 furlongs, and has the best pure sprint speed of the field, based on his first lifetime start. LET’S GET CRACKIN, the only two-time winner in the field, also has won at 6 furlongs. HODGE has the fastest winning speed at Santa Anita, scoring a 92 and breaking his maiden in November here.
FORM: Nothing outstanding to consider here.
PACE/POSITION BIAS:These have greatly favored the horse on the rail; that honor goes to INNOCENT MAN.
Little to no value here so far.
RACE 3: 6.5 furlongs for fillies/mares, going downhill on the turf. Allowance, optional claim $40k.
MRS. ROSA with best dosage here (Mr. Greeley/Noches De Rosa). Also has win on the track and best speed here (88 Brisnet). DIAMOND DUCHESS, in 3rd US start, has run consistently in route races in the UK and also won one. HAKUCHI has best class of these, winning in South America. No horses in the field have won locally tho. TIZALWAYSOMETHING has pure early speed and the best pace numbers of the field.
FORM: No edge here.
PACE/POSITION: Inconclusive.
Good wide open race.
RACE 5: $22-25k claimer, 1 mile for fillies/mares. MUSICAL GRACE has best dosage (Swiss Yodeler/Enduring Grace). LILLY’S PERFECT has won at 8.5 furlongs. TAXI RIDE also won at 8.5 furlongs, doing so in an $48k allowance race. VAN BRIT is 7 for 12 lifetime at Santa Anita, and a dazzling 95 Brisnet number. HALFAPONDAROSA has the best pace speed of these, running as a dead closer.
FORM: Negative bias to SIZZLING GOLD. He comes off a 7 furlong win here last month, but the increase from 77 to 90 will take too much out of him here. Granted, as a late running mare, such a horse doesn’t bounce nearly as much as do younger horses and sprinters, but I will not give benefit of doubt here. Tough call tho, and probably deserving of 12/1 morning-line odds. No horse with strong positive bias here either.
PACE/POSITION: Definitely favoring positions 4 through 7…give slight edge to PURE STORM, MUSICAL GRACE, ENTABENI, and SIZZLING GOLD.
Wide-open race.
RACE 7: Allowance optional claimer, $62.5k, a mile on the turf for 4YO+ horses.
FIRE WITH FIRE with best dosage (Distorted Humor/Cosmic Fire). Two horses have longest distance wins in the field, BARNEY REBEL and TIPPETY TAP TAP. SHEDIAK won an 85k ungraded stakes race at Del Mar last autumn, classiest win of this field. Three horses share best winning Brisnet number (97) at Santa Anita: RED DEFENSE, ROMEO ROYALE, TAMARACK SMARTY. Speaking of, TAMARACK SMARTY has best pace numbers to her runstyle of the field (closer).
FORM: No perceived positive bias. On the negative side, BARNEY REBEL makes his 2nd US start after racing in the UK. I predict downturn.

RACE 8: Maiden claimer for CA-breds, $40-50k, 6.5 furlongs.
CATQUEST has best dosage (Cat Dreams/Smooth Quest). SOI PHET has the best track performances here, an 89 pace number scored last month, in a race he just missed out on.
WARREN’S RAIL BIRD owns best current pace numbers of the field, strong closer.
FORM: Negative toward SOI PHET, who had peaked 2 races back with that 89 score. Still might be under the influence of that race, and being a 4YO, might take more time to bounce back from.
PACE/POSITION: All early runners will be helped out in this field, best bias to the sprinters. Give the edge to BRINGON THE WAIN and SOI PHET. Posts 4 through 7 are winning the best at this distance here. Edge to I FEEL FREE, SOI PHET, WARREN’S RAIL BIRD, AMERICA RISING.
SOI PHET certainly may have edge here but cautious at best.
RACE 9: San Juan Capistrano.
This 14-furlong race (!) has just 6 runners at morning-line. EAGLE POISE has best dosage (Empire Maker-Reams Of Verse). Only recent winner of this distance in the field, a Grade 3 win at Woodbine last December. DHAAMER makes his second lifetime start in the US. He ran 2nd in a Grade 3 race on this track. For form, often a horse who makes a big effort shipping from overseas in his debut will falter in his second race. BOURBON BOY (M/L fave) has run in consistenly great class, winning a Grade 2 race last time out at this track. Lifetime best was also established at this track earlier in his career, a 109 Brisnet number, best of this group. BONFIRE KNIGHT is a dead closer with the fastest closing kick of this field.
FORM BIAS: No one has any real edge, tho I do give DHAAMER an automatic disadvantage (see above)
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Meet totals suggest that a dead closer wins 35% of the time here, which gives BONFIRE KNIGHT a fair advantage. He’ll break from stall 5, which seems a bit more fortunate than the other positions.

RACE 10: Final race of the card and the meet, 6.5 furlongs, maiden claimers for $30k. Big 12 horse field.
MASTER RUDY has best dosage of the field (Fusaichi Pegasus/Sacred Sue). MIDNIGHT CON has 3 2nds in 5 lifetime races at Santa Anita, and best track speed here, with an 86 back in January. VERY UNUSUAL in the #12 hole has super early speed, best pace of the field.

FORM: I’m highly against VERY UNUSUAL, despite the fact that he goes back to dirt from turf and from 1 mile to 6.5 furlongs. With the propelling of his early speed in his races, he’s already forged 2 new tops last 2 races, to an 81 last out, and I think he’s more than due to downturn this time around. He’s also just making a pace recovery from his last layoff (first race back 2/25). No other positive/negative bias on any other horse.
PACE/POSITION: 6.5 furlongs for fillies here absolutely favores pure speed. Consider these 4 horses: MASTER RUDY, VERY UNUSUAL (caveat emptor), ZANDER, MR. PADRE. Also favors positions 4 through 7, so give edge to DREAM CAUGHT, GIVIMAWAY, SUPERCHUPACABRA, and MASTER RUDY, the latter who proves to be good value at 8/1 and dual qualifier

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