today’s stakes races analyses

This post focuses on today’s graded stakes races.

TEXAS MILE STAKES at Lone Star:

Endorsement gets the edge for best pedigree for Lone Star winners. Three horses have won at 9 furlongs; these are Endorsement, Fifteen Love and Moonshine Mullin. Endorsement also with class edge, winner of the 2010 Sunland Derby.No other horse in this field with Graded wins
Lydia’s Last Step has best winning Brisnet number, from last year’s Lone Star Park Handicap. Track bias favors the majority of the field, leaning to both sprinters (Lydia’s Last Step, Coyote Legend) and post positions 4 through 7 (Get In Da House, Oak Motte, Moonshine Mullin, Hurricane Ike). No horse with a real form edge here. Bonus: Oak Motte’s jockey Lyndie Wade has combined with trainer Danny Pish for ROI of +3.64 based on 5 races (2 wins, 3 in the money). Endorsement and Moonshine Mullin could bounce from their speed numbers, the former especially, as he forged a new career best. Hurricane Ike and Coyote Legend both wired their respective fields before finishing 2nd.
Get In Da House has the fastest pace numbers of this field, being a closer type.
Selections are: Get In Da House, Endorsement, Lydia’s Last Step. Lot of value to work with here.
SAN FRANCISCO MILE at Golden Gate Fields: Pedigree edge goes to Dunmore East (Honour And Glory-Risky Seas). Worth repeating has stamina for days…won a 12 furlong race 2 races back, actually a year back, then raced 5th in a mile race a month ago. Classiest horse is Geranimo, with wins in the G2 Oak Tree Mile and G2 Citation. Hudson Landing has 3 wins in 4 lifetime races on the GG turf course. Best pace numbers belong to Sanger Silver, running at the lead or stalking close to it in his last 3. Track bias greatly favors pure sprinter…edge goes to 4 horses of this style: Worth Repeating, Positive Response, Dunmore East, Live Sundays. Nobody terribly impressed me with clusters of form that suggested a real edge. Jeranimo, tho, does come out of a Grade 1 race, and his trainer Michael Pender has a strong ROI in Graded races: in 23 races over the last 2 years, he has 7 wins, with 13 total in the money. ROI: +5.40. Selections: In a very competitive race, I like Sanger Silver, Hudson Landing, Jeranimo, with Worth Repeating 4th.

WESTCHESTER STAKES at Belmont
Already down to a 4-horse competition with 3 scratches.

Boys At Tosconova has the lone lifetime Grade 1 victory in this field. Fastest winning Brisnet # at Belmont, a 110 in a maiden race in 2010. Goombada Guska, alongwith To Honor And Serve, both won at 9 furlongs, longest distance race won of this group. Goombada Guska in best form of these: Slightly surpassed both his 3YO and 4YO best numbers in his last race, finishing 3rd in a 75k race at Aqueduct. Was off layoff then and off layoff here as well. To Honor And Serve has the fastest pace numbers here, an early-pressing type, with consistent runs in Graded company. Bold Deed has no redeeming factor that endears me to him for this race. Selections in no particular order: Goombada Guska (longshot), To Honor & Serve, Boys At Tosconova.

DERBY TRIAL at Churchill

I won’t be around to check out the race, but here goes:
Top pedigree (closest chef-de-race numbers for CD winners) is Saint of Saints (Pleasantly Perfect-Stylish Manner). Longest winning distance run is from Stealcase, 8.5 furlongs, breaking his maiden in his 3YO debut 3 races back. Motor City has consistent Graded stakes runs, including a G3 win in the Iriquois last year. Hierro is 1-for-1 at Churchill, scoring a 94 Brisnet, best of these. Best pace number belongs to dead closer The Black, who ran first or second in last 3 races, all in Cali. Selections: The Black-Hierro-Motor City. Morning-line suggests The Black and Motor City as longshots but with 2 early scratches, and the prior interest in Motor City being on the Triple Crown trail, value may drop on these. Still could be a good betting race. Bonus: Paynter drops from the Grade 1 to this Grade 3 race, having ran 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. The Black and Nonios are still on the influence of career best pace races.
With the selections, unless they are all chalk, I like to play exactas with each combo of my top 3, and win bets for any horses going off at worse than 5-1.
Next post will come once the Kentucky Oaks field is finalized as well as the Friday major stakes action at Churchill.

Kentucky Derby/Oaks 2012 andvance analysis

This is an updated look at Kentucky Derby contenders, as I have access to the latest Brisnet collection of past performances. The top 22 horses per graded earnings are in focus outside of Isn’t He Clever, who was pointed off the trail today.
I will have a look at this weekend’s graded stakes races either Friday or Saturday. This time next week, you can expect a follow-up to this here post once the post positions are out.
If I were wagering today, here are the variables I’d use, in order of least to greatest importance:
PEDIGREE: Best fit for a winning horse at Churchill: Bodemeister. I made this comparison by looking at chef-de-race numbers of all horses and then comparing who had the closest match to those who had won at CD in 2011. I include the CD and DI numbers for comparison as well. Bodemeister is out of Empire Maker, 2nd in the Derby, whose sire is Unbridled. Dam is Untouched Talent, whose own sire is Storm Cat.
DISTANCE: 9 horses had already won at 9 furlongs: Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, Done Talking, Dullahan, Gemologist, Hero Of Order, I’ll Have Another, Take Charge Indy, and Went The Day Well.
CLASS: 9 horses have won Grade 1 races: Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Gemologist, Hansen, I’ll Have Another, Liaison, Take Charge Indy, and Union Rags.
TRACK: Best winning Brisnet number belongs to Hansen, the 103 he ran in the BC Juvenile.
PACE: Fastest horse to his runstyle is also Hansen, spearheaded by a 114 first-call number in the Blue Grass Stakes.
FORM: Still a bit murky as horses are still working out, but I already like 4 horses for having the ‘bounce’ and ‘explosive’ form type: Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, Done Talking, and Went The Day Well. Negative form right now: I’ll Have Another, Optimizer, Prospective, and Trinniberg.
I’m not wagering this race based on post positions, as this race never gets enough stats to produce a good track bias, but here’s who will be helped by various position areas:
Best for rail through post 5: Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Gemologist, Prospective, Trinniberg, Went The Day Well.
Best for posts 6 through 15: Creative Cause, El Padrino, Hansen, Rousing Sermon, Union Rags.
Best for posts 16 through 20: Bodemeister, Done Talking, Hansen, Hero Of Order, Liaison,Sabercat.
Here’s how I rank the contenders, putting this all together:
Hansen
Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best (tie)
Bodemeister,
Daddy Long Legs
Went The Day Well
then a tie between these:
Dullahan, I’ll Have Another, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy
Looking at the Kentucky Oaks:

Ignoring dosage for the moment
DISTANCE: The only horse who’s won at the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs is Grace Hall, who achieved the feat in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on 3/31.
CLASS: Three horses have won Grade 1 races: Eden’s Moon, Grace Hall, and Karlovy Vary.
TRACK: Horse with the best Brisnet speed number at Churchill of these is Amie’s Dini, scoring a 93 last autumn.
PACE: Amie’s Dini also excels in this category, with great numbers in the 2nd call of her last three races.
FORM: Workout info incomplete so I can’t be comprehensive. But here’s who I like and don’t like:
Like: Yara, who wired the field until the stretch in the GP Oaks. Trainer Jose Garoffalo is 1-of-5 in graded races in 2012, earning ROI of 24.20.
Dislike: Believe You Can, Hard Not To Like, Karlovy Vary, Oaks Lily, On Fire Baby.

Combining these elements, here are my current rankings:

Amie’s Dini
Yara
Grace Hall
Eden’s Moon

Santa Anita race analysis, 4/22/12

I’ll be handicapping the final race day of the Santa Anita meet today. I have past performances for 8 fo the 10 races. I’m working on a new wrinkle of an angle: track/race bias stats. The stats determine what post positions and race-types win most at a track. I will use these stats to play an extra win bet if the horse is 6/1 or worse, and exacta under favorites or my top overall pick. TwinSpires.com/tv , where I watch races, keep up-to-date numbers on these. They also have Profit Line indicators, suggesting overlays. For the time being I’m ignoring those but keeping watch for the future.
I look for these stats onBrisnet past performances, tho I imagine TwinSpires updates these quicker to the latest races.
Bear in mind I won’t be wagering these races, but I’ll give you my top 3 selections as they happen, on Twitter at @radiocblue

RACE 1: 3YO maiden fillies going 6 furlongs, none who have made more than 4 starts. LADY TEN has the best Brisnet speed number at this track, an 88, reached last time out. She also has best pedigree (Rock Hard Ten/Mismonique) DIXIE IN PINK has the best overall pace, saving all its strength for the stretch.

FORM: No one with a decided angle, positive or negative.
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Inconclusive for pace. Position suggests horses in posts 4 through 7 do best…so give an extra edge to DIXIE IN PINK, LADY TEN, and also to first time starter PLAYFUL HUMOR.
Looks like just a 2-horse race thus far, not much value at all.
RACE 2: 6 furlong allowance, optional-claim, $80k. 5 horses go at it.
GUN BOAT has best dosage in this short field (Congrats/White Ruffle).INNOCENT MAN has won at 6 furlongs, and has the best pure sprint speed of the field, based on his first lifetime start. LET’S GET CRACKIN, the only two-time winner in the field, also has won at 6 furlongs. HODGE has the fastest winning speed at Santa Anita, scoring a 92 and breaking his maiden in November here.
FORM: Nothing outstanding to consider here.
PACE/POSITION BIAS:These have greatly favored the horse on the rail; that honor goes to INNOCENT MAN.
Little to no value here so far.
RACE 3: 6.5 furlongs for fillies/mares, going downhill on the turf. Allowance, optional claim $40k.
MRS. ROSA with best dosage here (Mr. Greeley/Noches De Rosa). Also has win on the track and best speed here (88 Brisnet). DIAMOND DUCHESS, in 3rd US start, has run consistently in route races in the UK and also won one. HAKUCHI has best class of these, winning in South America. No horses in the field have won locally tho. TIZALWAYSOMETHING has pure early speed and the best pace numbers of the field.
FORM: No edge here.
PACE/POSITION: Inconclusive.
Good wide open race.
RACE 5: $22-25k claimer, 1 mile for fillies/mares. MUSICAL GRACE has best dosage (Swiss Yodeler/Enduring Grace). LILLY’S PERFECT has won at 8.5 furlongs. TAXI RIDE also won at 8.5 furlongs, doing so in an $48k allowance race. VAN BRIT is 7 for 12 lifetime at Santa Anita, and a dazzling 95 Brisnet number. HALFAPONDAROSA has the best pace speed of these, running as a dead closer.
FORM: Negative bias to SIZZLING GOLD. He comes off a 7 furlong win here last month, but the increase from 77 to 90 will take too much out of him here. Granted, as a late running mare, such a horse doesn’t bounce nearly as much as do younger horses and sprinters, but I will not give benefit of doubt here. Tough call tho, and probably deserving of 12/1 morning-line odds. No horse with strong positive bias here either.
PACE/POSITION: Definitely favoring positions 4 through 7…give slight edge to PURE STORM, MUSICAL GRACE, ENTABENI, and SIZZLING GOLD.
Wide-open race.
RACE 7: Allowance optional claimer, $62.5k, a mile on the turf for 4YO+ horses.
FIRE WITH FIRE with best dosage (Distorted Humor/Cosmic Fire). Two horses have longest distance wins in the field, BARNEY REBEL and TIPPETY TAP TAP. SHEDIAK won an 85k ungraded stakes race at Del Mar last autumn, classiest win of this field. Three horses share best winning Brisnet number (97) at Santa Anita: RED DEFENSE, ROMEO ROYALE, TAMARACK SMARTY. Speaking of, TAMARACK SMARTY has best pace numbers to her runstyle of the field (closer).
FORM: No perceived positive bias. On the negative side, BARNEY REBEL makes his 2nd US start after racing in the UK. I predict downturn.
PACE/POSITION: Favoring posts 4 through 7: FIRE WITH FIRE, ROMEO ROYALE, MEGASTAR, SHEDIAK.

RACE 8: Maiden claimer for CA-breds, $40-50k, 6.5 furlongs.
CATQUEST has best dosage (Cat Dreams/Smooth Quest). SOI PHET has the best track performances here, an 89 pace number scored last month, in a race he just missed out on.
WARREN’S RAIL BIRD owns best current pace numbers of the field, strong closer.
FORM: Negative toward SOI PHET, who had peaked 2 races back with that 89 score. Still might be under the influence of that race, and being a 4YO, might take more time to bounce back from.
PACE/POSITION: All early runners will be helped out in this field, best bias to the sprinters. Give the edge to BRINGON THE WAIN and SOI PHET. Posts 4 through 7 are winning the best at this distance here. Edge to I FEEL FREE, SOI PHET, WARREN’S RAIL BIRD, AMERICA RISING.
SOI PHET certainly may have edge here but cautious at best.
RACE 9: San Juan Capistrano.
This 14-furlong race (!) has just 6 runners at morning-line. EAGLE POISE has best dosage (Empire Maker-Reams Of Verse). Only recent winner of this distance in the field, a Grade 3 win at Woodbine last December. DHAAMER makes his second lifetime start in the US. He ran 2nd in a Grade 3 race on this track. For form, often a horse who makes a big effort shipping from overseas in his debut will falter in his second race. BOURBON BOY (M/L fave) has run in consistenly great class, winning a Grade 2 race last time out at this track. Lifetime best was also established at this track earlier in his career, a 109 Brisnet number, best of this group. BONFIRE KNIGHT is a dead closer with the fastest closing kick of this field.
FORM BIAS: No one has any real edge, tho I do give DHAAMER an automatic disadvantage (see above)
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Meet totals suggest that a dead closer wins 35% of the time here, which gives BONFIRE KNIGHT a fair advantage. He’ll break from stall 5, which seems a bit more fortunate than the other positions.

RACE 10: Final race of the card and the meet, 6.5 furlongs, maiden claimers for $30k. Big 12 horse field.
MASTER RUDY has best dosage of the field (Fusaichi Pegasus/Sacred Sue). MIDNIGHT CON has 3 2nds in 5 lifetime races at Santa Anita, and best track speed here, with an 86 back in January. VERY UNUSUAL in the #12 hole has super early speed, best pace of the field.

FORM: I’m highly against VERY UNUSUAL, despite the fact that he goes back to dirt from turf and from 1 mile to 6.5 furlongs. With the propelling of his early speed in his races, he’s already forged 2 new tops last 2 races, to an 81 last out, and I think he’s more than due to downturn this time around. He’s also just making a pace recovery from his last layoff (first race back 2/25). No other positive/negative bias on any other horse.
PACE/POSITION: 6.5 furlongs for fillies here absolutely favores pure speed. Consider these 4 horses: MASTER RUDY, VERY UNUSUAL (caveat emptor), ZANDER, MR. PADRE. Also favors positions 4 through 7, so give edge to DREAM CAUGHT, GIVIMAWAY, SUPERCHUPACABRA, and MASTER RUDY, the latter who proves to be good value at 8/1 and dual qualifier

Weekend Graded stakes analysis

Long post this time, as I,indeed, will analyze all graded stakes for the weekend here. Keeping it short and concise but enough info to let you choose your own adventure, and wager. Yours truly won’t be wagering these races but I’ll advise as to which races you may want to lean to.

Friday: Keeneland: Transylvania Stakes:
STATE OF PLAY (1) upgrades from a 75k race after a series of graded stakes prior to this. Highest life price was 5-1. Best class of the field, having won a Grade 2 race last year. Best form of the field, having posted a 96 above an 85 prior, the 96 slightly better than his 91, running 12th in the BC Juvenile.
MONASTIC (5), fully turf oriented, is the only horse to run on Keeneland’s turf, 10th in the Grade 3 Bourbon. Also very cheap price on this horse in his lifetime.
SILVER MAX (6) returns to Graded after a 50k allowance race, sprinter with the fastest pace to his style of the field. At or near the front at nearly ever call. Seems to be a fair-weather type.
Selections are 1-6-5. All 3 are under 4-1 at morning-line. Not likely a race to wager for value.

Now we go to Aqueduct and the first of four graded stakes events, the Comely, for 3YO fillies:
NUFFSAID NUFFSAID (PP 4) returns north after several races at Gulfstream. Dead closer, fastest to her type in the field. Was a heavy price last out in the Davona Dale (G2) and performed as such. Might command some value here as she drops to G3. Prior to this, ran either 1st or 2nd in all lifetime starts.
OFF LIMITS (PP2) has frequented this in 3 of 4 lifetime and is horse-for-course, breaking maiden here in November. Went from 86 to 94 Brisnet speed figure in the Busher Stakes last time out, and forged to new top, is a bounce candidate.
BOURBONSTREETGIRL (PP7) has more of the inherent factors to win on Saturday. Has great pedigree (Langfuhr-Amaretta/Woodman), and won her debut at 8.5 furlongs on turf. Just 2nd life start on Aqueduct’s turf. . Also a dead closer, likely to bounce; went from 76 to 82 in last race.

MILLIONREASONSWHY(PP3) makes AQU debut; out of a 75k ungraded stakes win. Prior to this, was competitive in two G2 events, including a win in the G2 Matron Stakes. Has the ‘explosive’ form, as well as a pair of lifetime tops.
BROADWAY’S ALIBI (PP1) comes out of a G2 win at Gulfstream, forging new life best figure and also seems bounceworthy, moving up from 96 to 108.
With 5 contenders, I’d avoid exactas and just play win on any horses iwth greater value of these. Top 2 selections are 4-2, then a mix between 3-1-7.

Bay Shore Stakes:
TRINNIBERG (PP1) has the best class in the field, out of a win in the G3 Swale Stakes. Absolutely a bounceworthy horse, going from an 80 to a 104 in Brisnet speed, changing from his normal speed style in that once too. Jockey Martinez and trainer Bisnarth hook up for 2nd straight race, paying at the rate of 7-1 last time. Might go down in value.
PERFECT TRIPPI (PP2) is hosrse-for-course…3 races at AQU, and best Brisnet winning speed of these, a 94 3 races back while breaking maiden. Last race pushed through that 2YO race slightly, forging new top. Could still bounce with the increase in speed, but appears to be in overall good form. Nearly wired the field last time out.
KING AND CRUSADER (PP5) is the only route winner of the field, running in alternating route/sprint races. Last out finished a tired 8th in the Gotham. This middle-pace horse is the fastest of the field. I don’t mind that he tired once reaching the AQU stretch in an 8.5 furlong race….he switches back to 7 furlongs here and I think he’ll like this better. Also, jockey-trainer combo of Luzzi and Dutrow have won 8 of their 16 races together in last 60 days, along with 10 times in the money, a ROI of +2.11. Good form.
HOW DO I WIN (PP8) also shows good form. Best winning speed at AQU was a 91, 2nd best in field. Ran a 100 Brisnet in a 100k stakes race, going past his 2YO best of 99, and surpassing his prior race’s 94 score. Essentially a horse that can both bounce and explode forward, along with newly forging a new lifetime top. Lost speed duel in last race.
Selections are 5-2-1.

Wood Memorial:
TEETH OF THE DOG (pp4): Broke his maiden in 3rd start, all at Gulfstream. Sticking with Joe Bravo in saddle who rode this one. Certainly a lot to ask for here taking on graded-stakes company, he has more of the inherent qualities to win here. One of two to have best pedigree in field (Bluegrass Cat-Deputy Reality/Deputy Minister). Last race was 9 furlong win, only horse in field to win at this distance. Paired up last 2 races.
STREET LIFE (pp5) also has great pedigree (Street Sense-Stone Hope/Grindstone). Only horse who could bounce, seeing his Brisnet number go from 87 in maiden win to a forging 95 in the Broad Brush Stakes. Fastest pace horse in the field (closer). 2 races on the inner dirt track but first time out on main track. In fact, no horses in field on main track prior.
GEMOLOGIST (pp6) has the exploding and forging lines…G2 win in the KY Jockey Club last year, then up to a new top of 98 in an allowance race win pushing through his debut race victory of 95. Undefeated.
Three horse race, this one is. 5-6-4 

Carter Handicap:
CALEB’S POSSE (3) is the big pace horse as the dead closer. Won the BC Dirt Mile last year, then a ‘good finish’ in the Tom Fool last month on Aqueduct’s inner track. That race, with a 115 Brisnet, gives him the exploding and forging variables as well as a pair-up of speed figures.
CALIBRACHOA (4) is the most ready to win this week. Horse-for-course, 2 wins on the main track, the best coming in last year’s G1 Cigar Mile, following up with new lifetime bests, winning the Tom Fool and the Toboggan. Seems ready to explode out, also could bounce tho given the 116 rating in last race. Best in form overall.
SHACKLEFORD (5), last year’s Preakness winner, has continually run in Graded company, finishing either 2nd or well out of it. Not much to say re form for this one.
Selections in this 3-horse race are 4-3-5 

Hawthorne:
Illinois Derby:
CURRENCY SWAP (4) won last year’s G1 Hopeful Stakes. 2 wins and a 2nd in 3 lifetime starts. Paired up speed figures in last 2.
FRANKIE IS ROCK (10) has much to root for. Comes off best speed at Hawthorne, a 3rd place 92. Might bounce off that number, as his previous number before layoff was 71. Still could explode, as the 92 bests his 2YO high of 89. No workouts since the 3/21 race. Never mind the 30-1 odds. This horse is ready to win now.
MORGAN’S GUERRILA (12), sprinter, has the best pace numbers of this large field, sports a win and 2nd in 2 life starts.
Race promises to carry a lot of value. Top 3 are 10-12-4

Keeneland:
Ashland Stakes:
DIXIE STRIKE (pp1) is one of three fillies I wagered in the Future Wager for the Kentucky Oaks. Closing speed only, fastest horse of the field in that regard. Possible bounce moving from 85 to 91 Brisnet number, a 4th in the Herecomesthebride (G3) Stakes. Turns back from 9 furlongs to today’s 8.5, and switches from turf to dirt. Jockey-trainer combo of Jose Lezcano and Mark Casse have hooked up in last 60 days for 6 races…resulting in 3 wins and a 4th in the money. ROI: 2.80.
GOLDRUSH GIRL (pp5) has the only 9-furlong win of this field,breaking her maiden last year. She has since then finished 2nd in the G2 Goldenrod, then forged and paired up in last 2 races. Both races were allowances of 50k. Has the exploding category too, with her 2nd race back still a factor.
STEPHANIE’S KITEN (pp7) doesn’t rank re form, but she leads in 2 categories. Off 2 graded-stakes wins, and a return to Keeneland, where she posted best winning speed figure of this field, a 96 in a G2 race last October.
Selections are 7-1-5
Sata Anita:
Santa Anita Derby:
CREATIVE CAUSE (pp1) has run solidly in Graded company ever since his maiden win, including three straight 102 scores in the last 3 races. No real form variable stands ou with this one. Won the Norfolk (G1) Stakes. Shares the best winning speed at Santa Anita of this field, a 102 from his last race, the San Felipe (G2).
LIAISON (pp2) still might be a question mark since losing his jockey 2 races back. But there’s much to like here: Best pedigree of the field (Indian Charlie-Galloping Gal/Victory Gallop); winner of the G1 CashCall Futurity; has the exploding category, running 4th in the San Felipe here, improving on his 2YO best of 94, along with forging a new lifetime best.
HOLY CANDY (pp3) broke maiden after 4 tries, 3 at this track. Dead closer with the fastest speed of the bunch. Won last time out, 2nd in the others. Changing jockey to Alonso Quinonez, who won in the only time he’s worked with trainer John Sadler in the last 60 days, for ROI of 5.20.
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (pp4) is a mixed bag re form. He has the bounce/explosion combo that I like. ROI angle: jockey Mario Guiterriez & Doug O’Neill have been in 12 races, winning 1, in the money in 2. Not a great record, but ROI was 5.38. I believe this includes his 2/4 race last out, the Robert B Lewis Stakes which he won. Like Creative Cause, also has a 102 winning speed at this track.
LONGVIEW DRIVE (pp5) is one of 4 horses who was won at 8.5 furlongs
Selections are pretty tight betwen 4 horses. Top 3 are 3-1-2
Providencia Stakes:
LADY OF SHAMROCK (PP1) broke her maiden at 8.5 furlongs. Horse-for-course angle in play; 2-for-2 lifetime on Santa Anita’s turf, including her win last out in the Chinadoll, plus best speed figure on the track, a 98. Seems she could bounce from that number. She also has the recovery line in play, which is usually ok for form but not in this case, 3 races after layoff and new lifetime top.
KILLER GRACES (pp3) is out of the best class of races in this field..3 graded races including a G1 win at Hollywood in December, 8.5 furlongs. Coming out of a G1 race, the Las Virginnes, 3rd straight race she entered stretch 3 wide, finishing weak in most recent race.
MS PIANIST (pp6) has best pedigree of this field befitting a winner at Santa Anita (More Than Ready-Pleasant Temper/Storm Cat). Nothing otherwise impressive.
INDIGO RIVER (pp7) is the best pace horse here, with great early speed. Dueled and lost lead in stretch, finishing 3rd last time out in the Chinadoll. That race forged new lifetime best, actually, a pair of strong efforts last 2.
Close between these four. 7-1-6 are my top 3.
Finally the Potrero Grande Stakes:

SWAY AWAY (PP1) comes off lifetime best as 4YO in the G2 San Carlos, scoring a 108 Brisnet number, ahead of a 100 in his last 3YO race, a 100k allowance plus an 8 month layoff. Can bounce but also can explode further off this number. He’s got the best pace of this field and best form, and has every chance to win today. I’ve rated him as my best bet across all 10 races.

AMAZOMBIE (pp2) paired up to lifetime bests in the San Carlos and the BC Sprint. Best pedigree in the field (Northern Afleet-Willshe Amaze/In Excess). Consistently running in Graded class.

ROMAN THREAT (pp5) has one lifetime start, winning a 56k maiden with a dazzling 108 number on this track, best speed figure here.

Selections are 1-5-2