Florida Derby/Santa Anita Oaks analysis

Pardon me while I gloat. 
OK, that’s enough.
The Dubai World Cup finished an hour ago and I successfully played a 35-1 shot over a 7-1 in an exacta, plus to win outright.   
The approach I’ve been using is this:
Play my top 3 selections within each other in exactas.
Play any selections going off at 6-1 or worse to win.
If there are more than 4 contenders, ignore the exacta part.
That’s it.
I was tanking for much of the card, but I was very happy to see my best work in the biggest race. Such is my luck. I can’t play the small races or low claimers in the middle of the week.  

Gulfstream Park and the Florida Derby in a few hours.  Here’s how I see it:
UNION RAGS has the best pedigree of the field (Dixie Union-Tempo/Gone West). He  also is the one horse with a G1 win of this field (last year’s Champagne)
NEWS PENDING has the only 9 furlong win of this field, and also ranks best in form.    Here’s how: Going from his 91 Brisnet number in an optional claiming race, to a lifetime best of 99 in the G2 Fountain of Youth suggests a bounce down in this race. At the same time, his 91 score from 8 weeks ago just surpasses his 2YO best in the race prior to it.  So he could go in either direction with this race, and I always give the benefit of the doubt.  
EL PADRINO is a factor as he has the best winning Brisnet number at this track in this field..this came from an optional-claiming race on January 29, sandwiched between two Grade 2 races.
TAKE CHARGE INDY has the best pace rating for his style in the field
My selections in order are 2-3-8-6.  Following my guidelines above, I’d focus on 2-3-8 for using in exactas and win bets where appropo.  NEWS PENDING is my top choice and might prove to be great outright value. 

Now for the Santa Anita Oaks: Just 5 horses going at it. 
CONJURE THE SPIRIT has a lot going on for her….. Best pedigree (Lawyer Ron-Atlantic Ocean/Stormy Atlantic)….Longest distance won in the field, 9 furlongs last time out in a 56k maiden.  In that race she also gently surpassed her best 2YO Brisnet score with an 86, and is also therefore her lifetime best. Turning back in distance and going turf-to-dirt. Furthermore she’s the fastest of her type in the field. And here’s more: Trainer Alexis Barba has run 5 horses switching from turf to dirt in the last 18 months..his horses have gone 1-for-5, 3 times in-the-money, for an ROI of 3.76.  ML is 15-1.  I’m not totally sold on the combo of form patterns tho. The turnback/distance switch plus the forging race last time out suggests she might actually run an off race here. It’s enough to penalize her but not run her out of contention. Still you get superb value here. 

EDEN’S MOON won the Grade 1 Las Virgennes Stakes last time out.
RENEESGOTZIP has the best track performance of this field, a 101 in the Santa Ynez on 1/15. Not to mention a 96 last time out here in the same Las Virgennes.

My selections, in order of preference, are 2-1-5, putting the 2 chalk horses over the longshot of these 5. I wouldn’t bet the 2 faves as an exacta but instead with #5, if the odds hold this way close to post time.

Not wagering these 2 races.



Dubai World Cup day short analysis

Well, I’m going to do it. I’m going to wager on the Dubai World Cup cad. All 8 races. 
I’ll spare the analysis and cut to the chase with my picks for all 8. 

Granted I’ve never wagered on strictly international competition outside of a fair representation of such on Breeders Cup days.  This may be the toughest test I have yet in handicapping. I have to use Daily Racing Form standards, not as friendly to me as Brisnet standards, and some stats I rely on are missing for the most part.  
First race, listed as Race 2, is the GODOLPHIN MILE.  African Story is my best bet of the entire 8 race card, and will win or at least contend, along with Western Aristocrat, and Derbaas.  Kinda low priiced per ML but maybe worth something with exactas.  African Story has best performances at Meydan, has the fastest race pace going, and, along with Derbaas, in in best form of these.   It was actually tough to solidify form choices on this card, but this race is the easiest of the 8 to handicap.  It gets tougher!   Selections: 4-8-7
Race 3: DUBAI GOLD CUP: Selections are 11-13.  Just 2 horses to factor here. Fox Hunt is a major favorite, performs well at Meydan and is the fastest horse here.  Kasbah Bliss has run in the best class of these and has won at the longest distance of these as well.   
Race 4: UAE DERBY. 3 contenders here plus one also-elgible (#17 Counterglow). If #17 doesn’t run, I like these three: 2-6-12. Burano is best in form of this field. Mickdaam is has the best winning speed at Meydan of these. Red Duke leads in pace. 
Race 5: AL QUOZ SPRINT has proven to be the toughest race to figure. Nearly every horse has a legitimate chance to win. In fact, I can isolate just one horse, #15, to win, and that is Sole Power, as he seems fastest.  A crapshoot between four other horses: Monsieur Joe, Nocturnal Affair, Prohibit, Better Be The One. With 5 to play with, I think I’ll skip the exactas and just look for the horses with the highest prices   Selections to choose from are 15, 1,5„ 12 and 13.
Race 6: DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN: A bit better here…about 5 horses with a shot to win.  My selections are 12-5-7. Lucky Nine is one of three who has won at Grade 1 and appears fastest. Krypton Factor has the horse-for-course edge. The Factor has high odds to win and does have more of the inherent factors to win (distance, class)
Race 7: Dubai Duty Free: Selections are 4-12-15. Ambitious Dragon has the edge in pace and one of 4 with top class. Presvis is best of these at Meydan, also shares top class. Wigmore Hall is a contender at best, probably won’t win. 
Race 8: Dubai Sheema Classic. Selections are 3-4-8. Beaten UP is the fastest of this lot.  Mahbooba has the track edge. Cirrus des Aigles, a heavy favorite, has won at the longest distance of these and at top class. 
Race 9: DUBAI WORLD CUP: Selections are 2-11-8. The big race has 8 of the 14 horses who have won at Grade 1, no surprise there.  Eishin Flash, star thoroughbred in Japan is my pick to win this, who has the best pace rating of this field.  Capponi for 2nd, who has great runs at Meydan.  Monterosso should contend among the rest. 

Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3 musings

Recently I’ve reported that I’m scaling back bigtime on handicapping. I’ve been on a losing streak for the year and it doesn’t seem to be improving. What I will wager on tho, are the major races in the year: All the Triple Crown races (and the full card alongsides), Breeders Cup races and the Future Wagers. I know that the Dubai World Cup is this weekend, and I might try that one. Thing is, tho, ever since the BC races, I’ve been totally cold with the luck. Not sure what to do except go back to bare basics to my foundation of knowledge to really weed out races that are unplayable. You know the ones…the ones where the faves are pretty much going to run either 1st or 2nd.
I’ve also brought back my usage of dosage as a variable tho it takes the lowest priority for now. Form (mainly speed/pace) is the most important variable to my strategy.

This post will focus on my thoughts re Future Wager Pool 3, set to open noon ET tomorrow. I’m very curious to see the changes in odds once the Saturday races (including the FL Derby, which I will handicap for you also) are run. Before this, let’s see how my Future Wager picks from the first 2 pools looked:


My tactic was to pick horses outside of the field, and only with double-digit odds. I’d double dip on a horse if I thought his winning price would go up. No it’s not a misprint for Pool 2; I did wager on Creative Cause twice.

As for the KY Oaks..I bet on these:
Since there was just one pool, I did away with my double-digit standard.

Now we turn to Pool 3. I used the same variables as last time, and picked the top 1/3’d of horses in each category, and focused on the consensus ranks. Here were the de facto benchmarks:
DISTANCE: Any race won at least 8.5 furlongs.
CLASS: Any G1 or G2 wins.
PACE: Self-guided formula measuring the last 3 Brisnet speed numbers.
TRACK: Best winning Brisnet number at Churchill Downs.
DOSAGE: Best chef-de-race numbers corresponding to a win at CD (using standard from www.chef-de-race.com )
FORM: A mix of combined variables that determine strong positive/negatives for who is likely to win. For purposes of the future wager, I mainly focused on ‘bounce’ ‘explosive’ ‘forging’ and ‘recovering’ horses. These variables can possibly predict how a horse might fare a few races ahead, borrowing language from Dave Litfin’s book “Secrets of Expert Handicapping”
3 horses ranked in the top 3rd of the 38 horses, with 5 out of 6 hits. 3 more had 4 of 6. First I’ll present the top 3:
HANSEN: No surprise, right? He’s strong in nearly every category…the win at CD in last year’s BC Juvenile; the 10th fastest pace number thanks to his performances in the Gothan and the Holy Bull stakes races. Fastest winning speed at CD also. Pedigree: Tapit-Stormy Sunday (Sir Cat) Did you sleep on his 26-1 odds from Pool 1? Not I! He’s now certainly one of the big favorites and he won’t be double-digit odds this time around. Not wagering on him again, considering his ML odds of 6-1. Possibly could bounce down in speed with his next race, seeing his jump in pace from his last two. Bounce could be well-timed; next race is
SECRET CIRCLE has the 2nd fastest pace of all 38 horses, and fastest of the non-field choices; last 3 races were the G2 Rebel, the Southwest and the Sham stakes. 2nd fastest winning speed at CD (BC Juvenile Sprint). Pedigree: Eddington-Ragtime Hope (Dixieland Band). Compelling choice with the ML odds at 15-1. I’ve the sense he will drop in price tho.
UNION RAGS is one of the other ML faves. Ranks 7th in pace. 2nd in the BC Juvenile, with the fastest non-winning run at CD of all horses. Win in the G1 Champagne. Pedigree: Dixie Union-Gone West (Tempo). I don’t see how I wager on him given the odds. No reliable form angle to play with this one
Now we move to the 2nd tier where there are more holes to expose and the prices are higher. Three horses at this level:

DADDY NOSE BEST is one of 4 horses who have won at 9 furlongs. He won the El Camino Real and the Sunland Derby at this distance, both of these at the G3 level. Slowest of the pace contenders but enough to qualify. Ditto for Churchill Downs pace. He is one of 4 horses who qualified via form in my list, having the ‘explosive’ and ‘bounce’ designation thanks to his win last time out in the Sunland Derby. It was a large increase in speed from the El Camino Real. This combo I’ve often seen winners of among contenders. Pedigree doesn’t rank well. Hasn’t faced top class of horses yet. He might end up getting some attention from me, as his ML odds are 15-1. Not sure of where he’s running next besides the big race itself.
ON FIRE BABY may look familiar to you, as she is one of three horses I picked for the KY Oaks Future Wager . What no one knows for sure is which race she’ll run on the first weekend in May. This poses quite a dilemna. At 50-1 odds at ML, is she worth playing? I already have my $2 on her at 13-1 for the Oaks. Winner of the G2 Goldenrod. A slow but contending series of Brisnet numbers. Slowest winning Churchill Downs pace number, this at the G2 Pocahontas. Pedigree not a contender among the 38. Next race is the Arkansas Derby on 4/14
OPTIMIZER is also 50-1 at ML. Scored a contending 91 Brisnet running 4th at CD, at last year’s KY Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Also qualifies re form cycle with the same bounce-explosive connection. This was driven by his run last time out in the G2 Rebel Stakes. He could bounce in next race then bounce back in the KY Derby. Or simply forge ahead! Also will run in the Arkansas Derby.  Pedigree: English Channel-Indy Pick (AP Indy)   Pace is too slow for this group.  Best win was a $56k maiden race.
If the prices drop on a number of these contenders, I will consider one of the horses I have ranked below all these:
Later on Friday I will give analysis about tomorrow’s big races, the Florida Derby, and the Dubai World Cup, and possibly another race or two from the Dubai undercard.

today’s Aqueduct/Santa Anita graded stakes analysis

In this post I’m examining 5 races, 2 of them on the Kentucky Derby trail. Not wagering these races as I normally would.

At Aqueduct, the Tom Fool Stakes (G2) has 6 horses, with 2 of them as strong ML favorites.  And, in fact, those 2 are the only horses that deserve to win it:
CALIBRACHOA is a 5YO coming off his best career start, a 109 Brisnet number earned while winning the G3 Toboggan at this track.  3 lifetime races on the inner dirt, 2 wins and a 2nd and 108 lifetime best.  Also has the best dosage profile of this field (Southern Image-Fort Lauderdale).  Is primed to run just a strong a race as previous, tho the pair of strong runs in last 2 could suggest a downturn. Not likely tho.
CALEB’S POSSE last ran in the BC Dirt Mile (G1), winning that one with a Brisnet # of 110. Racing consistently at 8.5 furlongs, and is rated by me as the fastest horse to his style in the field (dead closer).  First race off a 4 monthy layoff. Running consistenly in Graded company.  Downgrades from G1 to G3 for this one, might bounce from sharp speed increase.
The other 4 horses have no outstanding qualities to suggest they will compete, tho there is one I will throw out:  EMCEE with just 2 starts, is undefeated, coming out of a driving 6-length win at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream, a 53k allowance race.  Brisnet of 113 is big increase over debut at 98.  With a 5 race sample, jockey JR Velazquez and trainer McLaughlin have hooked up for 3 win, 4 in the money, for an ROI of 3.92.  But he is a ML fave today…and I’m thinking this one will bounce considering increase in speed and the class he has to overcome.
If the odds hold like they do from the morning-line, I’d likely pass this race. If I were to seek value, I might take Capt. Candyman Can, Justin Phillip and Royal Currier to win and underneath both Calibrachoa and Caleb’s Posse in exactas.  

Next is the G2 Gotham, with obvious Derby implications. 

If you’ve been following my posts, HANSEN is my #1 choice to win the Kentucky Derby. As for this race, he’s got a lot going for him. Top dosage numbers (Tapit-Stormy Sunday), and is the only horse with a Grade 1 win in the field.  Stumbled out of the start in the Grade 3 Holy Bull…was leading but finished 2nd to Alpha. And Alpha’s off the trail now.   Paired up Brisnet numbers in last 2 races. 
RACONTEUR has the longest distance win, a win at 9 furlongs in a $65k maiden race earlier in the Aqueduct meet on this inner track. One of 9 horses who could bounce from his prior race.
KING AND CRUSADER is 2 for 2 lifetime at Aqueduct’s inner, with a top Brisnet of 97, best in this field.  Comes out of an impressive win in a 75k ungraded stakes earlier in the meet.  Early-pressing style is the fastest pace of the field. Also could bounce from the last race but I like that he improved slightly over his 2YO best while doing so (93). 
MY ADONIS was 3rd in the Holy Bull last time out. From that effort, he also pushed through his 2YO best (94 to 98). Could bounce also, but, like King and Crusader, has ability to excel here.
Those are your 4 contenders.  I rank them like this: King And Crusader, Hansen, Raconteur, My Adonis.  As usual, I’d play 3 in exactas in all ways, and choose horses worse than 5-1 for win. King And Crusader is the longshot at morning-line and may be worth playing.

Switching to Santa Anita…3 races to examine:
First is the G1 Las Virgenes.
KILLER GRACES catches my eye first.  Best dosage profile befitting winners at Santa Anita (Congaree-Heatherdoesntbluff).  One of three horses who was won at 8.5 furlongs. Has run at that distance last 4 out, including a prior G1 win at Hollywood Park

The other 2 horses with 8.5 furlongs wins are WILLA B AWESOME, and CHARM THE MAKER.  Willa B Awesome is one of my main picks for winning the Kentucky Oaks. As for today, there’s an outside chance.  Jockey-trainer Pedroza-Solis have hooked up for 3 wins and 4 in the money out of 6 races in the last 60 days, an ROI of 7.80.  Comes out of a G3 win here at Santa Anita and slightly improved over her 2YO best, yet could bounce off the number as well…and then perhaps bounce back in her next race. Has the best form of this field.
RENEESGOTZIP won a convincing G2 sprint at this track in her 2nd life start, and has best winning track speed here.  Also pushed beyond her maiden win from last year slightly and is destined to improve.
OPEN WATER is a dead closer and has the fastest speed of this field in relative terms. Ships out of Turway Park and 3 1-mile races, winning her last 2 easily.   Has a lot going on form-wise but more negative than positive.  No works since last race and forged a new top.  Also has recently recovered in pace from a layoff. I think she’s expected to have an ’off’ race here, and it may be why she’s 20-1 at morning-line. 
I rank the contenders like this: Willa B Awesome, Open Water, Reneesgotzip, Killer Graces, Charm The Maker. It’s actually pretty close between these 4. I’m predicting a valuable race here, as only Reneesgotzip is under 4-1 here.
Next is the Frank E Kilroe (G1) stakes. this is one mile on the turf. 6 of the 8 horses have a shot at winning.
JERANIMO has the best dosage numbers of winning types at Santa Anita (Congaree-Jera; hmmm..another Congaree horse). One of 3 horses who have won at 8.5 furlongs. His 106 Brisnet number here in October in a G2 race is the top winning track speed here.  Also great form: Led nearly wire to wire in last race at this track, was caught at the very end. Trainer Michael Pender has a good recent record in Graded stakes. Over the last year or so, he has entered 24 horses in these, with 33% win, 58% in the money, for an ROI of 5.33. One of the ML faves. 
The other 2 horses with long distance wins are JIMMY SIMMS and MAKE MUSIC FOR ME. Neither appear to be much of a factor today but not throwouts either.
ML fave MR. COMMONS’s last 2 wins are Grade 2 wins, both at this track.  Late-pace style is fastest of this field.
COMPARI also has some class to compete with this field. Owns a G2 win on this track from 2010.
WILLYCONKER deserves mention as he has great form. He also has the bounce/explosion form I look for to suggest he will win either here or next race for certain.
I rank these contenders like this: Jeranimo, Mr. Commons, Willyconker (best value), Compari, Jimmy Simms, Make Music For Me.
Finally the Santa Anita Handicap. 
NORVSKY is best in dosage (Vronksy-Fimbrelith).  No works since his last race, the G2 San Marcos on 2/11.
RON THE GREEK has the longest distance win in the field,  a 50k race, 1-3/16 mile ,at Aqueduct.  Will be of some value.
ULTIMATE EAGLE won last year’s Hollywood Derby, only recent G1 win in this field .  Possible bounce from his win in the Strub Stakes on this track last time out, yet can certainly forge a new top beyond this. Trained by Pender (see prev race for the positive ROI note).  Real mixed bag re form.  No other horse has any good form quality here that I can see and his isn’t great.
UH OH BANGO comes out of 2 races on this track, one a G2 win in January, resulting in the best winning track speed of this field. Then ran 2nd in a G2 race last out. I’m thinking he’s destined to improve. 2-race sample suggests good ROI from last 60 days between jockey ME Smith and trainer Owens. 
VICTORY PETE, outright longshot, has great early-press style that gives him the best pace of this field.  Another horse who peaked 2 races back, was ‘off’ in lats race switching to longer distance and from turf to dirt. Increases in distance here. I think that he will actually improve on this.
Here’s how I rank these contenders: Victory Pete, Uh Oh Bango, Ultimate Eagle (fave), Ron The Greek, Norvsky.  This will be a very big value race. 
Summary of top picks: 
Tom Fool: none
Gotham: King And Crusader
Las Virgenes: Willa B Awesome
Frank E Kilroe: Jeranimo
SA Handiap: Victory Pete
Sunday morning via Twitter (@radiocblue) I’ll reveal who I am actually wagering in both Future Wager pools.  

Everyone in the pool!

A huge weekend of racing tomorrow, along with the KY Derby Future Wager Pool 2, and the KY Oaks Future Wager on top of that.  
This post focuses on both Future Wagers.
For starters, I used the same categories for measuring horses as last time: class, pace, Churchill Downs history, dosage (measuring average chef-de-race stats of winners at CD in 2011), longest distance completed, and my own form categories bundled as one category.  I took the top third of horses in each category to come up with these thresholds: Contenders must have good dosage numbers, a win in a Graded event, a win or at least an 82 Brisnet number at CD, a current pace score of at least 96, a winner at 1-1/16, and is showing good to great form.   No one got all 6 categories, but 2 managed 5 of the 6, and 1 had 4, with 15 others managing 3.
Here are the 2 that stand out. This may look familiar to those read my prior post re Pool 1:
HANSEN’s fate to be determined with tomorrow’s Gotham (G1) at Aqueduct. Winner of the BC Juvenile at CD, a current pace of 102, has good dosage numbers.
UNION RAGS ranks a notch below HANSEN with very similar numbers in all categories, and having run 2nd in the BC Juvenile. He is doing battle in the Gotham also.

SABERCAT gets 3rd here.One of the better horses with dosage, a Grade 3 win (Delta Downs Jackpot in November last time out, winning at 8.5 furlongs.) Ran first 2 lifetime rades at CD, with best pace of 86. Current pace of 87. Rather slow for this field, so a lot to improve on.  Runs in the San Felipe on 3/10.

15 horses ranked below these 3.  I took the top 5 of those choices and rank them individually #4 through #8 below my choices. These will be the first horses I look to in case the odds remain strong from the first three.

GEMOLOGIST in  undefeated in 3 starts, last 2 at CD, winning the KY Jockey Club Stakes at 8.5 furlongs. CD and overall pace is 94.  Absolutely the best of the rest here.
Races next in the Rebel Stakes 3/17.
CREATIVE CAUSE was one of my Pool 1 choices and may well be a choice here if the odds are worse this time around.  After a 3 month layoff he finished 3rd In the San Vicente on 2/19 at Santa Anita, running against his early-pressing type, delivering a strong late kick. He’s a Grade 1 winner, with a 102 mark at CD (3rd in the BC Juvenile), and overall pace of 92, won at 8.5 furlongs.  He will also be in the San Felipe 3/10.
DULLAHAN returns as an outside choice for me. He was 4th last time out in the BC Juvenile, scored a 96 pace number at CD, and current pace is 92, won at 8.5 furongs.  Next race for him is The Palm Beach on 3/11.
I”LL HAVE ANOTHER repeats as an outsider.. He convincingly won the Robert B. Lewis (G2) stakes at Santa Anita on 2/4. Good pace number of 90.  Along with this, he’s one of 4 horses I found to be in strong form. He gained slightly from his 2YO best (97 to 102 Brisnet #), and yet could still bounce from this race. He may well bounce and have a nice bounce back 2 races from now. Will that 2nd race be the big one? 
Next race is the SA Derby on 4/7. 
EL PADRINO remains in my elite list, scoring a win in the Risen Star (G2) on 2/25 (one of the 3 contenders I picked for this race). Now with the Graded win, his pace number is 90, and now has repeated wins at 8.5 furlongs.  You’ll see him again in one of the major Derby preps, the FL Derby, 3/31.

As with Pool 1, I will wager 3 horses for $2 to win that may well go off at worse than 9-1 when the pool closes.    My selections then were HANSEN, CREATIVE CAUSE and SABERCAT. If the odds are worse in Pool 2 than in Pool 1 for any of these, I will absolutely bet on them. If the odds are improving, even if by a tick, I will skip. I’ll be very surprised if HANSEN gets bet on a 2nd time.
10 other horses probably won’t get selected but represent the best of the rest of those. They are ranked in no particular order.
ALPHA won the G3 Withers, has an 81 at CD, which is just below my threshold number of 82, and current pace of 96, plus the requisite win at 8.5 furlongs.  Next race is the FL Derby on 3/31.
BATTLE HARDENED won a G3 race in Tampa Bay on 2/4.Top pace at CD is 87. Slow current pace of 83. Won at 8.5 furlongs. He runs next in the Tampa Bay Derby 3/10.
ROUSING SERMON again is a real outsider for me but still on my list. Best race was a $100k ungraded stakes. Current pace of 103, steadily racing at 8.5 furlongs. Good pedigree.  Next race is the San Felipe on 3/10.
SECRET CIRCLE gets added here.  Winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklaw Park 2/20, a blazing 102 pace in his only race at CD, winning the BC Juvenile Sprint, and current pace of 107, 2nd best in the pool.  Has not won past a mile yet. Definitely on the trail but not sure where he will run next.
TAKE CHARGE INDY stays as a leading contender for me. He owns the top current pace in the pool at 109.  Hasn’t won anything besides his 6f maiden entry.  Ran a competitive 96 (placing 5th) in the BC Juvenile. Good pedigree. Next for him is the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/10.
The remaining 5 are part of the field entries, which will continue to have high odds and continue to get ignored by yours truly:
CYBER SECRET has an 84 pace at CD (decent), and a current pace of 96 (good).  Not great with class. Best win was a $65k optional claimer at 8.5 furlongs.. Ran 5th in the Southwest Stakes. Also has good pedigree. Might be off the trail.
DADDY NOSE BEST nosed out a win in the G3 El Camino Real Derby on 2/18.  4 lifetime races at CD, best score an 88.  Overall pace a bit slow too, at 89.  One of 3 horses in the pool to win at 9 furlongs. Unsure of next start.
DRILL nosed out the win in the G1 San Vicente on 2/19. What’s he doing stuck in the field then?  Slow CD pace of 82 (10th in the BC Juvenile), slow overall pace of 91, and hasn’t won past 7 furlongs yet.  Another of the horses who may have a strong bounce then bounce back 2 races from now.  .
MOTOR CITY hasn’t run since 10/30 winning the G3 Iriqouis with an 89 there at CD, and overall pace of 89 which is slow for my list.  No wins past 1 mile. Great pedigree. .
PROSPECTIVE joins my list here. 2nd in  a G3 race (8.5 furlongs) at Tampa Bay on 2/4, was dead last in the BC Juvenile, overall and CD pace too slow for the pool.  Has good pedigree compared to the others.
This will be my first time betting on the KY Oaks, with exactly one chance, this weekend’s Future Wager, to get it right.  As with the KY Derby, I used the same categories to rank the 37 horses, keeping the top 12 plus ties in each.   
5 horses ranked in 4 of the categories, and these will be my focus.  They are presented from 1st through 5th on my list:
ON FIRE BABY is my top selection.  Winner of the G2 Goldenrod at CD, with a pace of 89, and a slow overall pace of 88. Best win at 8.5 furlongs. Exploding horse capable of bounce and recover 2 races ahead.   Next race (the bounce race?) will be the G3 Honeybee on 3/10 
WILLA B AWESOME, out of the field choices, ranks 2nd. Never ran at CD, but had won a G3 event last time out at Santa Anita on 1/28, this one at 8.5 furlongs..   Slow overall pace of 82.  Another horse with the exploding/bounce/recover angle I like. Good pedigree  She races in tomorrow’s Las Virgenes at Santa Anita.
DIXIE STRIKE comes out of wins in the Ontario Lassie and FL Oaks. No graded stakes entries yet.  Pace is fastest of this field, a 113. Has won at 8.5 furlongs and owns good pedigree. Not certain of her next race yet.
GRACE HALL  won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) last autumn. and ran 2nd in the BC Juvenile Fillies at CD (scored a 96 here, best of non-winners in the pool). Overall pace is a competitive 97.  Hasn’t won past 1/70 but was competitive at 8.5 furlongs.  Next race should be the Gulstream Oaks (G2) on 3/31.  
SAY A NOVENA, also a field selection, is 5th for me. Her best race was the Brandywine ($150k) last autumn.  Was 10th in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Strong pace of 101.  No wins past 7 furlongs  Good pedigree keeps her as a contender.  Not sure of her next race.

Next post (coming later Friday), will be my evaluation of 5 Grade 1 stakes events taking place at Aqueduct and Santa Anita this weekend.