Dropping up to $100 on the 11 race card to see where it is. Being mindful of my $ I am limiting myself to one day a month and even limiting my loss and gain margin. I’ll play with some of my profit but only to a point. After this, I hibernate until BC Weekend.
Completed a new wagering line that opened my eyes a bit wider to certain variables, and closing off unreliable ones Seems that my choices for win wagers are peaking at about 33% win rate….If I keep from betting chalk to win, and just wait for 6-1 or worse on my top choices, I may come out ahead.
Generally I’m a speed/pace handicapper. The most positive outcomes to suggest future wins seem to be from these variables: horses who are due (or overdue) to bounce to a lower figure; horses who are dropping from graded to ungraded races or from stakes or handicap races to claiming/allowances; horses who have pushed through their prior year’s best speed figure and are still in proper condition to better it; horses who improve in the stretch but lose ground after.
Examining morning line odds and skipping just the 6th race on the card, here’s who I am currently touting for each race. Scratches will have their effect of course.
All numbers mentioned are program numbers, not posts.
I like playing my exacta choices with my win choices and under logical faves. If my win pick is under 4-1 near post time I will not make that wager ML horses better than 6-1 are marked with *
race 1: Win: 13, 14. Exacta: 12*, 13, 14.
race 2: Win: 2*,4*,7,9. Exacta: 2*. Likely not betting four horses to win tho.
race 3: Win: 2* Exacta: 2*, 4* Chalky, sure. Will attack with other means.
race 4: Win: 5 Exacta: 11, 10. Huge longshots for this one.
race 5: Win and Exacta: 2,3
race 7: Win and Exacta 1
race 8:Win: 3* Exacta, 3*, 5
race 9: Win & Exacta: 2*
race 10: no one. Just haven’t found a strong positive angle to make anyone a favorite. I will wager this using my older method, seeing who is ready to win now as opposed to more inherent intangibles.
Follow @radiocblue on Twitter as I will post my actual wagers before each race.
I will also be doing a series of 2-race show parlays, and across-the-board choices for my top choices that don’t match my win picks above.