short analysis of Belmont’s Super Saturday 10/1/11

Dropping up to $100 on the 11 race card to see where it is. Being mindful of my $ I am limiting myself to one day a month and even limiting my loss and gain margin.  I’ll play with some of my profit but only to a point.  After this, I hibernate until BC Weekend.

Completed a new wagering line that opened my eyes a bit wider to certain variables, and closing off unreliable ones    Seems that my choices for win wagers are peaking at about 33% win rate….If I keep from betting chalk to win, and just wait for 6-1 or worse on my top choices, I may come out ahead.  
Generally I’m a speed/pace handicapper. The most positive outcomes to suggest future wins seem to be from these variables: horses who are due (or overdue) to bounce to a lower figure; horses who are dropping from graded to ungraded races or from stakes or handicap races to claiming/allowances; horses who have pushed through their prior year’s best speed figure and are still in proper condition to better it; horses who improve in the stretch but lose ground after.  
Examining morning line odds and skipping just the 6th race on the card, here’s who I am currently touting for each race. Scratches will have their effect of course.
All numbers mentioned are program numbers, not posts.

I like playing my exacta choices with my win choices and under logical faves.  If my win pick is under 4-1 near post time I will not make that wager   ML horses better than 6-1 are marked with *
race 1: Win:  13, 14. Exacta: 12*, 13, 14. 
race 2: Win: 2*,4*,7,9. Exacta: 2*. Likely not betting four horses to win tho.
race 3: Win: 2*  Exacta: 2*, 4*  Chalky, sure. Will attack with other means.
race 4:  Win: 5  Exacta: 11, 10. Huge longshots for this one. 
race 5: Win and Exacta: 2,3 
race 7: Win and  Exacta 1
race 8:Win: 3*  Exacta, 3*, 5 
race  9: Win & Exacta: 2*
race 10: no one.  Just haven’t found a strong positive angle to make anyone a favorite. I will wager this using my older method, seeing who is ready to win now as opposed to more inherent intangibles. 

Follow @radiocblue on Twitter as I will post my actual wagers before each race. 
I will also be doing a series of 2-race show parlays, and across-the-board choices for my top choices that don’t match my win picks above. 

Kentucky Derby 2012 update

  Time to see how our Original 16 Contenders are doing. TRITAP(225-1) finished 2nd in his 2nd lifetime start, an MSW at Monmouth 9/24. He had been the sharp ML fave and ran as expected. No big surprise he was 2nd, which should him make him more of a contender next around. Earnings now $11k. My tweet about TRITAP suggested a 2nd or 3rd place at best. (@radiocblue for more)  
Jennie Rees blogs all things horse racing for the (Louisville, KY area) Courier-Journal, and is including the latest odds from Wynn Las Vegas.  Follow along at http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2011/09/26/hansen-joins-favorites-for-2012-kentucky-derby-at-wynn-las-vegas/
Here’s the workout updates:
BIG BLUE NATION (175-1, holding) breezed a competitive 5f at Saratoga on 9/26
CURRENCY SWAP (100-1) ran a decent 4f at Monmouth 9/25
RAINBOW’S BEST (325-1) breezed a strong 5f at Woodbine 9/26 
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT (225-1) breezed a competitive 4f at Churchill, 9/22
VEXOR (500-1) with bullet work 4f at Belmont 9/26
WHERE’S JOHNSON (300-1) ran a decent 5f at Woodbine 9/24
ZOW (250-1) ran bullet work 4f at Saratoga 9/26.  ZOW is entered at Finger Lakes in the NY Breeder’s Futurity, race 8, 10/1. 
SPEIGHTSCITY (225-1) bullet 5f work at Belmont 9/28

From the latest changes in odds and additions, I can safely add 2 new contenders for our list, bringing the total to 18:
YON: (275-1) has run 2 MSW events at Presque Isle Downs, finishing 2nd on 9/7 and 1st on 9/24.  $37k in earnings.
SPRING TO THE SKY (300-1) broke maiden in first start, an MSW at Belmont 9/24. $20k earnings.  
I’m planning to wager on 10 of the 11 races of Belmont’s Super Saturday, 10/1. I’ll provide some early analysis and angles that should make or break the chances of contenders on an individual level.  This is part of a new wagering line I constructed, in the hopes that my perspective from using an older one will bear fruit now.

Kentucky Derby 2012 thoughts ..examining 2YO contenders..

Just had a gander at Wynn Las Vegas’s latest odds for their list of contenders. They added 6 horses to the list but there were some that escaped my watch as well.  No real impact was made when comparing the newcomers to the sixteen I cited as contenders for next year’s Run For The Roses (see previous relevant post). 
I do have some updates of a few:
CANIGOTOO (holding at 500-1) has posted two good 4 furlong works at Hoosier Park, site of his 2nd place finish from 8/31. My understanding is that he is being pointed to the BC Juvenile Sprint.
POWER WORLD (down to 175-1) with 2 works at Belmont, one competitive. 
SPEIGHSCITY (holding at 225-1) with 1 bullet work, 5f, Belmont. 
TRITAP (holding at 250-1) with 3 works, 2 very good. He is entered in a MSW event, 7th at Monmouth, 9/24. 
VEXOR (500-1 and holding) with 1 good workout at Belmont.
No one else with workouts impressed among the sixteen.
Next starts for the contenders:
CURRENCY SWAP: G1 Champagne Stakes 10/8

Next report comes after Wynn Las Vegas updates their odds, and certainly after TRITAP’s run.

 

#Mayweather v. #Ortiz via biorhythms

Tonight’s match takes place on Mayweather’s turf, Las Vegas, for Ortiz’s WBC welterweight title. 

First we look at Mayweather’s biorhythms:

Doesn’t look good for “Money”….might be on the upswing in terms of being willing to continue through 12 rounds but don’t expect a miracle. Weak punching power, approaching triple low in cycles. 

Now for Ortiz:

It’s a real night-and-day difference. Ortiz is in much better potential physical shape and a more positive outlook.  Also he is much more likely to continue in the fight the deeper it goes. Any weakness? He might hit lower power punches and might overexert himself.  

Decision or late round TKO for Ortiz. 

**********************************
Undercard also looks compelling, Erik Morales v Pablo Cesar Cano for the vacant WBC light welterweight title.

Here are Erik’s cycles:

Outlook looks mixed, a bit negative. He’s likely to be off-kilter, more likely to bleed and feel pain in this fight than on other nights. He will have trouble connecting on punches. His emotions will see him through to the finish (Sort of like “Rocky”, right?)

Now for Pablo’s cycles 

Pablo already comes in with a physical low and getting lower, feeling sluggish.  He also is likely to rally via his emotions. Mentally he continues to climb higher, making his share of good and bad decisions, but very few power punches landing where they need to. I actually see him more likely to ‘quit’ than Erik. 

Outlook:
Very difficult to call. Both fighters are likely to connect a good percentage of punches. Both are physically challenged and unfocused. Erik has something of an age, tho, with his passion cycle, suggesting he’s more willing to continue than Pablo.

Split decision for Erik Morales. 

Kentucky Derby 2012 thoughts via chef-de-race comparisons

Can’t believe it. I’m actually looking ahead to 2012. When you last heard from me, I was basking in the glow of scoring a Pool 3 victory in my maiden KY Future pool bet. I had narrowed the pool down to 3 horses, put $2 to win on each, and nervously watched for Animal Kingdom among other win/exacta bets. I had the edge at post time as pool 3 closed paying 30-1.     I had also considered Animal Kingdom after the BC races among those that might do well on the Derby Trail. In this post I will attempt to look for horses, via chef-de-race comparisons, that I think have a chance to win next year’s big one.

Chef-de-race, in the shortest possible explanation, gives a statistical series of numbers to horses measured by their breeding, further classified into types consdered by both their breeding and style of races run. (from sprinter to dead closer). There are 3 types of numbers I look at. I take the numerical difference between the chef-de-race of a horse (difference combined from the 5 numbers given) compared to the average chef-de-race winning horse for the prior year at Churchill Downs, site of every KY Derby.  I also take the other 2 major numbers in chef-de-race, CD and DI Condition Dosage and Dosage Index) and compare these numbers in the same manner.  What I look for are horses who match up to all 3 sets of numbers as close as possible to those who win at Churchilll.  
More about chef-de-race at www.chef-de-race.com    Admittedly this is the weakest of the variables I use for handicapping on the day of the race, but it does have its importance.

FullCardReports  http://www.fullcardreports.com published a list of 2YOs and updated odds for winning next year’s Derby.  With this info I checked out all the chef-de-race numbers of each horses, did the comparisons and came up with 16 horses that are the best fit.  Here are those 16. Yes, those odds are real. And spectacular:
BIG BLUE NATION 175-1: Already has won 60, 2 races, 1 win, 1 show. Storm Cat grandcolt. Defrere maternal grandcolt. 3rd in the Hopeful (grade 3) at Saratoga. Won its debut at Churchill (surprise!) on 7/3. 
BLACK RHINO 250-1  4 starts, 1 win, place, show each. $63k in earnings. Finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Sapling Stakes. 
CANIGOTOO 500-1 TX bred, sired by Menhal (out of Danzig) Won in his only start at Lone Star, 6/16. $13k. 
CURRENCY SWAP 100-1:  Winner of the Hopeful Stakes. Won his only other start as well. $180K in earnings. 
MR. STYLE 175-1: Ran 2nd in only start. 
PAPA SID 500-1: Sired by Langfuhr.  1 win, 1 show. $22k 
POWER WORLD 175-1: 4 starts, 1 win, 2 2nds. $91k.  2nd in the Grade 2 Sanford, 2nd in the Bashford Manor Stakes. Maiden win at Churchill (aha) 6/11. 
RAINBOW’S BEST 325-1: Canadian-bred. Won his only race at Woodbine. $35k.
RIGHTFULLY SO 275-1: AP Indy colt. Unraced. 
SARATOGA SNACKS 325-1: NY bred. 2 starts, 1 win, 1 2nd. $32k. 
SPEIGHTSCITY 225-1: 2 starts, 1 win. $32k. 
SUNS OUT GUNS OUT 300-1: Unraced.
TRITAP 250-1: 1 start, unplacecd. 
VEXOR 500-1  FL bred, 3 starts, 1 win, 1 2nd.  $43k. 
WHERE’S JOHNSON 300-1: Canadian-bred. 3 starts, 1 win, 2 2nds. 2nd in the Simcoe Stakes.  
ZOW 250-1: 2 starts, 2 wins. $82k. Winner of the Gold And Roses Stakes. 

WinStar Farms breeds both Big Blue Nation and Speightscity. 
 

I will be sending out weekly updates through next year’s Derby as contenders join and fall away from this list, based on the weekly updates from FullCardReports.com