UFC 131 title pick: Dos Santos v Carwin

Once again taking a biorhythmic look into 2 title fighters:

Dos Santos:

Not good at all for dos Santos…lacks punching power, motivation and is gonna be totally oft kilter in throwing the right punches and holds..

Here’s Carwin: 

It’s like night and day  With Carwin peaking emotionally and mentally, even if he does lack punching power, his decision-making will see him through.  

I see a mid-round KO here for Carwin 

2011 Belmont stakes analysis

Before I get deep into the analysis I should start with this: I’ve completed a 4 week study, totally devised by yours truly, in which I established a proper betting line on 2 fronts. The first one combines my analysis of nearly 20 variables related to form, the second combining all favorites, personal contenders and selected form categories.    Having completed the study I’ve come to some interesting conclusions, some of which I’ll unveil here.  
I am to begin wagering real $ again with the entire Belmont card, coming up on 6/11.   The race itself will certainly center on the 2 Triple Crown race winners, but there are others that bear serious looks. Let’s go horse-by-horse.   1: Euro-raced MASTER OF HOUNDS leads in the overall form analysis….with the 5th place finish in the KY Derby, he slightly improved on his 2 year old best, last year’s BC Juvenile.  ROI: Aidan O’Brien won the one race he entered a horse in his 3rd start off layoff..   Check out his dam Silk And Scarlet (Sadler’s Wells) pedigree: AWD  is 10.6, just .1 ahead of ANIMAL KINGDOM.   Big strike against is having reported no workouts since the KY Derby.
With the relative form strength, he rates as an outside contender at best, someone for back half of superfecta and possibly show depending on the other contenders.
I  suggest NOT wagering Master of Hounds.  Unless he’s made one of the favorites, his chances of winning are extremely slim. Having the form strength with the emphasis on the ‘explosion’ form type without being labeled a favorite actually gets low markes in my study for the win and exacta pools; if he becomes a favorite, maybe consider  for win, but not for exacta.

2: STAY THIRSTY:  Compared to those in form, this horse may be the best choice to use in an exacta.  The one angle I see here is that his speed rating in Brisnt took a sharp jump between his last 2 races, the FL and KY Derbies.  Not a good sign. But my study bears out that such bounce-worthy horses tend to do well in exacta wagers if not outright winners. Compared to one other set of variables, bouncing horses are actually middle-of-the-pack choices, not throwouts but not first choices either .  Also below averange rank for wagering considering the contender/bounce form…   From 20-1 at morning line, it’s highly doubtful he’ll be a favorite, but he would be an obvious play if he does get bet down.  I love the jockey/trainer angle: Castellano/Pletcher have the best win/race ratio for races at Belmont in the spring meet within the field.  Also has had 3 workouts at Belmont, all very fast, one a bullet.
Really like this one to surprise at a price.

3: RULER ON ICE: Form looks decent….has repeated workouts of 5 furlongs at Monmouth. Does not any oustanding marks in any variables. Workout history is a middle-grade variable. High morning-line price of 20-1 is probably deserved. Don’t seem going off at a low price, but probably not worth playing for 1st or 2nd.
4: SANTIVA has the forging-form line to go on..the improved career best from the KY Derby.  Also has repeated 5 furlong runs at CD. Slightly OK for an exacta wager but not definite.

5: BRILLIANT SPEED: Has the ‘schizo’form type…indications are that he can bounce off last effort or might still be sitting on big race. Last 2 races, the Blue Grass and KY Derby both represented small forging career bests. Last win was a Grade 1 race.  Horse of this ‘schizo’ type (sorry,I’ll come up with a better name) generally ones to avoid….but if bet down as a contender, might be worth playing to win and exacta.  ROI trend: Joel Rosario combined with trainer Thomas Albertrani won 1 of 2 races at 18.10 ROI return in last 60 days.  Generally I have mixed emotions for wagering for win or exacta, but might consider for the latter if somehow he gets bet down to under 4-1.

6: NEHRO is one of 3 horses who will be serious public contenders for this race.   Last 2 races (AK Derby, KY Derby) are a small pair-up in speed ratings…a good sign.    However I will not bet on this form alone.  Likely to jump on this one if bet under 4-1.

7: MONZON has the best chef-de-race numbers for a horse running at Belmont.  Other than, nothing pro/con about his ability. 

8: PRIME CUT: Best Brisnet speed rating of those who have run at Belmont prior. His last race, which was at Belmont, not only was at that number but a career high. The pairing of his last 2 races as a small increase suggests an improvement in this race.  Repeated works of 4-5 furlongs at CD.  So far, not enough evidence based on speed form alone to wager….in fact, probably best to avoid in the win column.  I have him 4th in my ranking for this race.

9: ANIMAL KINGDOM, your KY Derby winner, who has never finished lower than 2nd in any prior race, appears to have lots of pro/con here.  Forged career best in KY Derby, but combined with effort in Preakness, suggests he could bounce down in speed.  ROI:  JR Velazquez with H. Graham Motion have done well in the last 60 days…6.76 score. One of 3 who last won a Grade 1 race.  Overall ranks at my #3 contender.  Fastest horse of his speed-type in this race, dangerous dead closer. Without considering as favorite (unlikely), actually a throwout for win. As a favorite, one to consider just a bit  Mixed feelings about using in exacta.

10: MUCHO MACHO MAN: Nothing to rank here in my standard variables. Within form, he showed the ‘explosion’ in form in the KY Derby, and still can run with that potential….but not going to wager him on that strength alone. Such horses with little else to go on scored poorly in my study.  Average player if he becomes one of the faves, possibly for exacta.

11: ISN’T HE PERFECT: No works since last race, which makes him an instant toss. ROI choices, generally are poor to rely on for exactas . His stats: Jockey Maragh with trainer Shivmangal have strong ROI of over 9.00 in 6 races last 60 days.   Avoid.

12: SHACKLEFORD,  your Preakness winner, is off his career best, and a forging speed figure form.  2 wins from an outside post, best post position trend in the field.   The lone early-speed horse in the field. I’ve ranked him 2nd overall for contenders.  If he wasn’t a favorite to win, I’d avoid him. Being that he is certain to be a public fave, he ranks slightly better for win bet than exacta. Obviously not much of a price if you do go for win here. Summing up, given all the work and the study:

Contenders:
2-12-9-8 are my top 4

9-8-1 to use in show parlay

Assuming that Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Shackleford are off at under 4-1 at post tme…here are the best value horses to play for win:
Stay Thirsty, Brilliant Speed
For exacta:
Stay Thirsty, Brilliant Speed, Mucho Macho Man
Avoid:  Ruler On Ice, Monzon, Isn’t He Perfect.
I would probably bet the above exacta choices to win and underneath any likely faves.

This post will update when scratches and changes are posted on Saturday.

*****
I broke even playing 9 of the 10 races on the card today. Here’s the wager for the  big race:
Win bets on 1, 3, 7, 9 
Across the board with 2
show parlay bets on 1, 9, 3

Exactas:
9-1
9-2
9-3
9-7
12-2
2-12
2-1
1-2
1-7
1-3
1-9