Sunland Park stakes selections 3/27/11

race 8: Sunland Park Oaks:
4*-5*-3-1
ROI 1,4 
form: 5
adjusted selections:
5*-4-3-1 

race 9: Harry Henson Handicap
1*-5*-4*-2
form: 1,5,6
adjusted:
1*-5*-4-6

race 10 is the Derby prep, the Grade 3 Louisiana Dreby.
8 of the 12 horses have some abiility to wiin:
#1 Ruler On Ice impresses with having both lifetime wins from an inside post. Otherwise, coming off a sharp career best, he might have needed more rest between races. 

#2 R Skydiver also has won 2 from an inside post. He also got reclaimed. He is attempting to recover from both a lifetime best and a slightly off form race that followed.

 #4: It’s My Party considers Sunland Park a home track. He has the best winning Brisnet score of the field and has the best jockey/trainer combo aboard in Bordieu and Hartman. Also, both of his lifetime wins came in a middle post.  I have It’s My Party winning outright with both the inherent and present conditions for winning today.  This doesn’t mean I think he’s in form tho. After winning his 3YO debut, he predictably went off form for his last race. Moving up in pace and distance, I’m not sure he will recover. 
#5: Behold De Buy, however is in form, one of the 2 I designate as such, and should contend. #5 ran a new lifetime best speed figure, a slight bump ahead of his 2YO best. It is a large pace climb from his previous, but with him being a late closer, I don’t foresee a bounce back.
#6 Supreme Ruler, one of the longshots, must be considered. He has the best speed figure trend of this field of 11,measured by his late-closing ability. He lost a close pace duel last time out. In his first start, he broke his maiden with a similar style, going 5 wide.  He has also won twice in a middle post.  Also he gets the ROI nod: Trainer William Fires has a 7% win percentage and 24% in the money in graded stakes this year, and a strong return of $4.76 on the average $2 bet on him.
#7 Sinai’s strength is that he is the lone early speed in the race. Absolute sprinter going into a route race for the first time.  I like his frequent works in California, the last 2 quite sharp. Has run 3 fast races, all similar speeds. Obviously the distance and pace increase will be challenging.
#9 Twice The Appeal is the other horse in great form. First I noticed the reclaim by Jeff Bonde wihich is generally a good sign. Debuted as a 3YO with a slightly better number than his 2YO best, has one similar race since, and might be advancing up in this field. Hard to tell as he and his camp are new to Sunland.
 
#11 Astrology is the class of the field as winner of the G3 Iroquois. He faces 3YO horses for the first time as a 3YO himself. I do like his workouts, frequent and at Santa Anita, tho not terribly quick. Astrology comes off a long layoff plus another graded stakes appearance since the career best, and good speeds all around. Does he improve? I think so.
Throw out 3, 8, 10

Selections:
4*-6-11-7 
ROI: 6
Form: 5, 9
adjusted for form: 4*-6-11-5
Lots of value in this race.  

Santa Anita 3/27/11 selections

Still working in the form factor which I started to use the other day. I’ll continue to post 2 sets of selections, tho in essence what it does it limit the number of contenders within my top 4 (listed as *). 
race 1: 1*-2*-7-3  
ROI: 2
form: 1
adjusted: 1*-2-7-3

race 2: No analysis available here but going with best jockey/trainer win% combos:
7*-11*-8*-2*

race 3: 3*-6*-7*-5*
form: 7
adjusted: 7*-3*-6-5

race 4: 4*-2-9-1 
form: 9

race 5: 3*-7-2-1
form: 3

race 6: 2*-1-9-5
form: 10, 1, 9, 2, 5 

race 7: 2*-9*-8*-10*
ROI 6
form 2
adjusted: 2*-10-9-8

race 8: 5*-1*-4*-2  
ROI: 4
form: 6
adjusted: 5*-1*-4-6

race 9:  7*-11-9-3
ROI: 7
form: 2, 5, 6, 9
adjusted: 7*-11-9-5 

Great value in races 5 through 8.
pick 3 in races 6 through 8 is very tempting, as is late pick 4, and daily double in races 7 and 8.

Hey I didn’t forget about Sunland Park’s major stakes action. Form stats are in, but I’ve yet to do analysis. I’ll have that done within an hour.