Bodog suggests that dogs getting 7 points or more are going off in recent years at a 65% clip, and over time those with 14+ points are winning at 63%. Their book publication also lists these variables as most important when determining a winner in the bowl season:
Coach’s record in bowls
School’s record in bowls
League strength of schedule.
I also add in yards per pass attempt, and which schools have more of a home field advantage and less travel to do than the others.
About 11 games are definitely providing large pointspreads. Of these games, Yahoo!Sports public opinion reveals that the Black Knights of Army, currently running 8 points as a dog, are receiving the most support to pull off an upset.
I’m picking all bowl games on Yahoo! this year. Here’s how they look:
If I were betting $$ I would take a cue from Bodog and play the dogs getting the most points, at least the teams I’m most confident who would win. These are UTEP, Utah, East Carolina, Army, Washington and Boston College