Radio Crystal Blue 3/28/10 audio/links
By Dan Herman
Genre: freeform indie podcast
Tags: Dan Herman, freeform podcast, freeform radio, internet podcast, Radio Crystal Blue
A decent Elite Eight given I had only 32 possible games to win on..and I picked 9 of them. Par for my course. Bracket 1 goes from 25 to 27 correct picks. Bracket 2 from 30 to 32, Bracket 3 from 27 to 29. The composite bracket scored 3 wins, and gives me 35 out of a possible 56.
Out of a total of 16 picks for the Final Four covering all brackets I ended up with 5 that are winnable at all.
Out of the Midwest, I have finally gotten shut out.
West: I have K State in Bracket 3
South: I have Duke in Bracket 1 and the composite, and Baylor in Bracket 2
East: I have both Kentucky in Bracket 2, and WV in Bracket 3.
At the final four stage if I have anything left I’ll over those and try the simulation to see if there any real trends to watch for in each game.
in predicted order of finish:
Al Quoz Spring: 16-2-5-4
Godolphin Mile: 11-14-3-9
UAI Derby: 5-3-9-13
Dubai Golden Shaheen: 8-5-9-7
Dubai Duty Free: 7-8-11-10
Dubai Sheena Classic: 15-13-3-5
With incomplete info on pace, workouts and seeing that this race is on a very new track, much guesswork had to be taken into account for handicapping Saturday’s race. Nevertheless, here how I see it:
Each horse seems very capable of winning, tho I lack info on #14, Amor de Pobre.
6 horses have run and won at the 10 furlong distance: (1,2,3,7,10,13)
6 have last won at a G1 event: (4,6,8,9,11,12)
5 horses have won on the new Meydan surface: (1,3,5,7,13)
All but 4 horses (6,11,12,14) have won on a synthetic surface.
Top 5 fastest horses are 6,11 (very close between these two), 2, 1, 4
I also factored in who are currently the top jockeys and trainers for the current season in Dubai. #1,2,3,6,7,12,13 are being ridden by 7 of the top 10 jockeys.
As for trainers, #7,12,13 and 14 have top 10 trainers.
Summing up, I’ve come up with a top 4 contender list
6 Vision D’Etat (France)
12 Mastery (GB)
7 Lizard’s Desire (SAF)
3 Red Desire (Japan)
Along the lines of chef-de-race, these are the best fitting horses to Churchill Downs:
Tempted To Tapit
Ice Box, winner of the Florida Derby
Lookin At Lucky (winner of the G2 Rebel)
Also still to consider are those that have won at Churchill already:
Pleasant Prince (2nd in Florida Derby)
and of course Dublin who was 7th in a G3 last year there.
And…the class. These horses’ last win all were G1’s:
Noble’s Promise (BC Futurity)
Vale of York is off the Derby Trail.
Lookin At Lucky last won the G2 Rebel
Looks like Tempted To Tapit (50-1) and Ice Box (12-1) are 2 clear contenders, but will give strong consideration to Dublin (15-1) also.
Through 2 rounds, Bracket 1 has 25 correct out of a possible 48. Bracket 2 has 30, Bracket 3 has 27, and the composite has 32. I did not get even half of a possible 16 wins for the 2nd round alone but didn’t get shut out either.
Looking at the regional semis, I have picked nearly all 1s and 2s, and have a 3 (Baylor) and 4 (Purdue) looming in one scenario apiece.
Bracket 1 via ESPN I’ve got these in play: Ohio State, Syracuse, Duke, WV
Bracket 2 via Yahoo I have: Syracuse, Baylor, Kentucky
Bracket 3: Syracuse, K State, Purdue, WV
Composite: Ohio State, Syracuse, K State, Duke, WV
Scenario generator time again: I did 10 simulations for the 8 matchups…here’s my results:
N Iowa vs Mich St very close to call but Mich St. averages 3 point wins in the scenario
Slight edge to Tennessee over Ohio State, and should come down to the last possession
Syracuse will dominate Butler, likely by 10 points.
Xavier likely winners over K State…2-3 point win.
Kentucky vs Cornell also very split on wins but Kentucky should win on last possession
Washington St vs WV: WV by 8
Duke over Purdue in the biggest mismatch of the 8 games…probably a 14 point edge.
Baylor over St. Mary’s in a very close match by wins….but I think it’s Baylor by a bucket.
Looking at national odds (using USA Today’s standard), if and only if you’re the gambling, you should pick Syracuse, Washington St., Cornell, Xavier, Michigan St., Tennessee, St. Mary’s, Duke.