thoughts on KY Derby Pool 1

Saw the PPs for the 23 chosen for Pool 1 to be wagered on. I don’t bet these future wagers, but…who knows? It might be worth dropping $2 on today.  The only reliable factors I could use in wagering on such horses are class and breeding.  For class, I look for horses that have won at least one Grade 1 event. I counted 4 horses, 3 of which are Tale of York (IRE), Dublin, Aikenite, and the other, honestly I don’t recall if there was another. 
I also looked at the chef-de-race of each horse, and compared it with the pattern for the Churchill Downs chef-de-race winners for 2009. The closest approximates of the 23 horses befitting the style of horses winning at CD are these, from top down:
Ron The Greek
Concord Point
Vale Of York
Dryfly
Aikenite
Super Saver

So Vale of York and Aikenite look most promising at the moment. Will have a look at all these week by week and also further expansion on this when Pool 2 comes up in early March.

Santa Anita race selections 2/13/10

All races with exception of 6 and 8 I’m wagering on the dime superfecta.
If the odds-on favorite is one of my top 2 selections, I will not bet the dime super; instead I will wager mutuels with the scheme you’ll see me use in races 6 and 8…$4 win place, $4 show on 3rd and 4th choice. I hate making generalizations well before I see odds change but that’s what I’ll do from here.

race 3: 6274 with 6274 with 6274 with all
6274 with 6274 with all with 6274
6274 with all with 6274 with 6274
all with 6274 with 6274 with 6274
7 horse field = $38.40

race 5:
2569, 2569, 2569, all
2569, 2569, all, 2569
2569, all, 2569, 2569
all, 2569, 2569, 2569
9 horse field: $57.60
across the board $2 #8

race 6:
$4 win and place on #4
$4 show #3
$4 show#5
I actually like #2 for 2nd.

race 7:
4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3 with all
4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3 with all with 4 11 10 3
4 11 10 3 with all with 4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3
all with 4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3 with 4 11 10 3
11 horse field: $76.80
plus
$2 across the board #5
$2 across the board #12

race 8
$4 win and place #6
$4 show #4
$4 show#5
I also like #3 for 2nd

Race 9:

9312 with 9312 with 9312 with all
9312 with 9312 with all with 9312
9312 with all with 9312 with 9312
all with 9312 with 9312 with 9312
9 horse field = 57.60
plus $2 across the board #5
$2 across the board #8