I took 2 types of analysis to come up with this year’s forecast. Warning: dry math stats ahead..
I took a look at actual quarter-by-quarter scores of each of the 18 games Pitt and the 19 games AZ had played during the season and postseason. From these I made 2 calculations.
a: I added up the quarter scores from each game, broken down by Pitt and opponent, and came up with season-long quarter totals:
Pitt has scored 60 points in the first quarter of their games this year, 120 in Q2, 97 in Q3, 125 in Q4. Pitt’s defense allowed 61 in Q1, 75 in Q2, 29 (YES, twenty-niner) points in Q3, and 96 in Q4. That’s 407 scored, 261 allowed.
AZ scored 92 points in Q1, 154 in Q2, 171 in Q3, and 99 in Q4. AZ allowed 96 in Q1, 170 in Q2, 94 in Q3, and 130 in Q4. Total of 516 scored, 490 allowed.
Now we sandwich these quarterly totals together and divide by 2 to get the projected scores:
Taking the average of what Pitt’s offense and AZ’s defense did quarter-by-quarter and vice versa, the projected scores look like this:
Pitt would have a 78-77 edge in Q1, 145-115 in Q2, with AZ having a 100-98 in Q3, and Pitt would reclaim in Q4 with the edge 128-98 The results suggets, per game sum, that Pitt would score 24, AZ 21 So there you have it.
B: I used the notation method to figure out whether there was evidence of recent scores pointing the bands> Notation helps you figure out if there is positive or negative trends. For example 1-1-10-10 can suggest higher rate …..10-10-1-1 assumes a decling rate.
I took the nation of the 18 games Pitt played multiplying the last game score by 18, the prrevious game by 17, etc. Then dividing by the number of factors in the study,adding up the numbers of the factor. For example, if using 4 samples of numbers, add the numbers 1 througth 4….that’s 55. Divide 4 by the number you come up with in those 4. 10 is first so that’s 10. 10 is 2nd, so x2. 1 is 3rd, so x3. 1 is 4th, x1. Our totals are 10, 20, 3 and 4. Sub total is 37. Divide by 4….and you get 9.25….a number very close to 10 and reflects the immediate trend. I’ll spare you the math, but basically I applied this to both teams…..I came up with a whole number and 2 decimals for each time per quarter along with opponents totals.
Pitt: 1Q outscored by opponents 3.35 to 2.91
2Q: Scores 6.81 to opponents 4.12
3Q: Scores 4.89 to 1.91
4Q: Scores 8.47 to 4.92
Total scores: 23.08….allows 14.30.. This is the teams’ current trend……keeping defense in focus and a bit of scoring, and most likely in lead. 2Q: Pitt begins to score quickly. 3Q: they annilate competition here..4th: again, strong dominance here. ..about a 6.8 positive difference between them and AZ for the 2nd half alone.
AZ: Q1….is outscored 5.90 to 4.46
q2: Barely outscored 8.87 to 8.79
q3: scores 7.84 to 5.20
q4: is outscored 6.48 to 5.16
Total ….even! Their trend is being outscored by their opponents but by a very thin margin….26.45 to 26.25.
Taking the average of Pitt offense vs AZ defense, and vice versa…we get a projected final score of….. Pitt 23.75, AZ 20.27……. let’s call it 24-20 Pitt.
Pitt wins 24-20, no question. Very low scoring in 1Q, AZ will build on momentum if Pitt doesn’t first. Q3…Pitt offense vs AZ D will be big test but I give Pitt the edge. 4th Q is all Pitt.